Estimating the impact of large-scale mining on local communities in sub-Saharan Africa

Abstract

The proliferation of large-scale mining in sub-Saharan Africa and its impact on local communities living conditions has been a matter of considerable debate amongst stakeholders. Thus far, there has been little consensus as to whether a local resources curse exists, with both quantitative and qualitative research yielding contradictory results. This dissertation aims to provide a reliable and replicable methodology to measure the social impact of large-scale mining on local communities. It does so by constructing three living condition indices measuring access to infrastructure and levels of lived poverty using Round 6Afrobarometer surveys. Making use of the recently geocoded survey data, it links 4 796 individuals to 148 large-scale mines in 19 sub-Saharan African countries within a 100km radius of a PSU. Using a linear mixed model with a random intercept and common slope, this dissertation finds that when country and urbanisation effects are controlled for, he proximity of a large-scale mine to a local community has a negligible impact on living condition outcomes. The case studies reveal that while large-scale mining has contributed to development infrastructure provision and improved living conditions, the disruption to social fabrics and land alienation often nullify these benefits particularly when government investments do not extend beyond mining. In short, this paper finds no substantive evidence for a local resource "curse" or "blessing"