Nonlinear interglitch dynamics, the braking index of the Vela pulsar and the time to the next glitch

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dc.citation.doi10.1093/mnras/stx1095en_ZA
dc.citation.epage4192en_ZA
dc.citation.issue4en_ZA
dc.citation.spage4183en_ZA
dc.contributor.authorAkbal, O.
dc.contributor.authorBuchner, S.
dc.contributor.authorPines, D.
dc.contributor.authorAlpar, M.A.
dc.date.accessioned2017-11-15T15:19:06Z
dc.date.available2017-11-15T15:19:06Z
dc.date.issued2017-08
dc.description.abstractThe interglitch timing of the Vela pulsar is characterized by a constant second derivative of the rotation rate. This takes over after the post-glitch exponential relaxation and is completed at about the time of the next glitch. The vortex creep model explains the second derivatives in terms of nonlinear response to the glitch. We present interglitch timing fits to the present sample covering 16 large glitches, taking into account the possibility that in some glitches part of the step in the spin-down ratemay involve a 'persistent shift', as observed in the Crab pulsar. Modifying the expression for the time between glitches with this hypothesis leads to better agreement with the observed interglitch time intervals. We extrapolate the interglitch model fits to obtain spin-down rates just prior to each glitch and use these to calculate the braking index n = 2.81 +/- 0.12. The next glitch should occur around 2017 December 22, +/- 197 d if no persistent shift is involved, but could occur as early as 2016 July 27, +/- 152 d if the 2013 glitch gave rise to a typical Vela persistent shift. Note added: Literally while we were submitting the first version of this paper on 2016 December 12, we saw ATel # 9847 announcing a Vela pulsar glitch which has arrived 138 d after our prediction with a persistent shift, within the 1 sigma uncertainty of 152 d.en_ZA
dc.description.librarianEM2017en_ZA
dc.identifier.citationAkbal, O. et al. 2017. Nonlinear interglitch dynamics, the braking index of the Vela pulsar and the time to the next glitch. MONTHLY NOTICES OF THE ROYAL ASTRONOMICAL SOCIETY, 469(4), pp. 4183-4192.en_ZA
dc.identifier.issn0035-8711 (Print)
dc.identifier.issn1365-2966 (Online)
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10539/23415
dc.journal.titleMONTHLY NOTICES OF THE ROYAL ASTRONOMICAL SOCIETYen_ZA
dc.journal.volume469en_ZA
dc.language.isoenen_ZA
dc.publisherOxford University Press (OUP)en_ZA
dc.rightsThis article has been accepted for publication in Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society. © 2017. The Authors. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Royal Astronomical Society. All rights reserved.en_ZA
dc.subjectStars: neutronen_ZA
dc.subjectPulsars: generalen_ZA
dc.subjectPulsars: individuals: Velaen_ZA
dc.subjectStars: rotationen_ZA
dc.subjectDense matteren_ZA
dc.subjectVORTEX CREEPen_ZA
dc.subjectINTERNAL TEMPERATUREen_ZA
dc.subjectPOSTGLITCH RELAXATIONen_ZA
dc.subjectTIMING PACKAGEen_ZA
dc.subjectCRAB PULSARen_ZA
dc.subjectPulsars: individuals: Velaen_ZA
dc.subjectstars: interiorsen_ZA
dc.subjectPulsars: generalen_ZA
dc.titleNonlinear interglitch dynamics, the braking index of the Vela pulsar and the time to the next glitchen_ZA
dc.typeArticleen_ZA
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