An investigation into the process mineralogy and supply of cobalt with special emphasis on the Democratic Republic of Congo

Abstract

Transitioning to a decarbonised and circular economy is paramount for climate change mitigation and sustainable development. In this research report I assess the global production trends of cobalt, an energy-transition metal (ETM), and its supply sustainability. Accurate production forecasting of ETMs is essential to understand the dynamics of energy supply security and adequately plan for a change fromfossil fuel energy to renewable energy production. Evaluations of market concentrations point out that cobalt is a high-risk market characterised by production fluctuations and supply-chain complexities. Using an Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model to forecast production, a linear increase in world production is predicted for the short term, while a Hubbert model predicts a world production declinebeginning in the late 2010s. These predictions, coupled with geopolitical, socio-environmental, economic, and technological influences on the market reinforce the concern around cobalt supply sustainability. The relationship between geology and metallurgy must be reinforced as one of the most important criterionin ensuring cobalt supply sustainability. High-tech extractive metallurgy and mineral processing are essential for supplying critical raw materials (CRMs) for our modern society. The ability to effectively extract, process and beneficiate CRMs is dependent on understanding the mineralogical characteristics of ore deposits. Although alternative avenues for sourcing cobalt such as secondary urban mining and stockpiling exist, they are unlikely to become major suppliers in the short term and therefore, accurate primary production forecasting is important for ensuring energy supply security and policymaking. Increasing international interest on critical raw materials in policy spheres also heighten the necessity to anticipate the future of cobalt supply as governmental entities acknowledge the imbalance of CRMs in international trade. Well-researched and well-designed policies that incorporate environmental sustainability and non-discriminatory economic growth can facilitate an equitable shift to a greener and more circular economy. At the forefront of this shift should be ethical environmental and resource governance that recognises the inequalities in socio-economic development and energy-transition, and mandates for a just transition towards a low carbon future.