Structural equation models : an application to Namibian macroeconomics

Abstract

Structural Equations Models (SEMs) are now widely used almost in every discipline of research. Most of the existing materials for the Namibian macroeconomic models are studies of the well documented time series approach. In this study, we provided a statistical approach on modelling the Namibian macroeconomics for the real and fiscal economic sectors using SEMs. The approach is based on testing the theoretical specification laid down by the Namibian Macroeconometrics Model (NAMEX) of 2004. The economic structure and relationships among the variables is evaluated by means of exploratory and confirmatory analysis and the results are congruent to the existing theory in terms of loading patterns. Between Maximum Likelihood (ML) and Generalized Least Square (GLS) estimation methods, we compared the discrepancy of parameter estimates under the commonly encountered problems of sample size, violation of underlying assumptions in the data as well as model misspecifications. GLS estimation methods seem to provide better goodness of fit indices under those conditions. We have also shown that the fiscal sector is not well represented by our SEM. We recommend further studies to employ sufficiently larger samples so that models are correctly specified.