Age-period-cohort analysis and prediction of Human Papillomavirus-related cancer incidence in South Africa

Ndabezitha, Sandile
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Cancer is one of the major public health concerns in the world today and it is among the most common causes of mortality and morbidity. Non-communicable diseases are now considered the main contributors to global deaths. In the future, cancer is projected to be the leading cause of death and decreased life expectancy for almost every country across the globe in the 21st century (1). In 2018, there were 18 million cancer cases reported, and 9.6 million deaths in the world (1,2). The perception of cancer has also shifted from being viewed as a disease for the rich to a disease everyone can get. A huge burden of cancer cases and deaths fall on low and middle-income countries. About 70% of cancers diagnosed worldwide in 2018 were from low and middle-income countries (3–5). In South Africa, there were 107 467 cancer cases reported, and 57373 lives lost due to cancer (6) in 2018. In 2020, the world recorded about 19 million cancer cases and about 9 million deaths. The Southern Africa region had 116 391 cases and 61 659 deaths, with more than 90% of these cases coming from South Africa (108 168) and 56 802 deaths (7).
A research report submitted to the Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science in Biostatistics.