Climate variability impacts on agricultural output in East Africa

Abstract

This paper investigates whether the effects of weather variability intemperature and precipitation on agricultural output are short- or long-run. Thecontribution of this paper is twofold. First, the paper attempts to establish whethertemperature or precipitation variability affects agricultural output in the short or thelong run. Second, it examined whether the effects of temperature or precipitationvariability on agricultural output are homogenous across East African countries. Theresults reveal that variability in temperature had a long-run impact on agriculturaloutput, while variability in precipitation had a short-run effect. The findings alsoreveal that the long-run temperature variability effect was heterogeneous acrossEast African countries, and to some extent, there is also evidence for the long-runeffect of precipitation variability. These results are crucial in providing decision-makers and other interested parties a thorough evaluation of climate impacts andadaptation measures aimed at increasing agricultural production and food security.