The odds of progressing from first to second birth in the context of HIV/AIDS and fertility decline in Agincourt rural area of South Africa.
Date
2011-05-25
Authors
Shabangu, Goodness Mildred
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Abstract
Introduction: Many regions in the Sub-Saharan Africa have undergone fertility decline and some
countries are still continuing to drop even below replacement level. South Africa is one of these
countries. However, there are still high levels of teenage and non-marital fertility. Fertility in South
Africa is characterized with early first births and delayed subsequent births among teenagers than .
women who do not have a birth as teenagers This raises a concern that timing of first birth and
subsequent spacing of births is becoming a major determinant of fertility decline that is not yet
receiving substantial research attention. This study examines the age and period effects of
progression from first to second birth and helps to fill this gap in the research on fertility in South
Africa.,
Methodology: Using a sample of 12,942 women. derived from the 1993 and 2007 Agincourt Health
and Demographic Surveillance Site (AHDSS) data the study examine the age and period effect on
birth spacing and intervals in an era of stalling fertility by modeling birth intervals from first live
births to second births. With the assumption that teenage fertility is higher at first birth and that
second birth intervals are longer for teenage mothers as compared to older mothers. For data analysis
Chi squared tests were run to determine the distribution of births between teenage mothers and other
first time mothers across the defined characteristics. I use logistic regression to assess the association
between age/period effects on the likelihood of having a second birth within five years. Results were
interpreted at 95% CI.
Results: Only 40% of the sample had a second birth within 5 years of both periods. While there is an
overall decline in fertility in second period compared to the first, teenage fertility has increased from
34% to 40% of first births. However, older moms have higher likelihood of second births than teen
moms with the odds of young moms dropping and becoming closer to those of teen moms over time.
Age, marital status at first birth, education, refugee status, and child mortality have a significant
effect on the odds of progressing to a second birth in the second period.
Conclusions and recommendations: Increasing progression likelihoods among married women
combined with child mortality may be evocative of HIV/AIDS effects on progression, necessitating
further research to understand the effects of progression on fertility decline, taking into consideration
use of contraceptives, socio-economic and education policies affecting sexual and reproductive
health and the effects of HIV/AIDS.