Public services, government employment and the budget

Abstract

This report presents independent analysis using publicly available data on budgets, audited spending outcomes, and government plans for future expenditure. Our main concern is to draw inferences about the impact of budget choices on the allocation of real resources to core public services. The quantitative nature of budget choices means that, in contrast to other forms of policy expression, trade-offs between different policy goals are made clear and explicit. The report attempts to gauge the quantitative aspect of public policy in three respects. First, we identify the trends in real spending over the last two decades. Second, we use the budgets approved by parliament and provincial legislatures to gauge the impact of budget choices on real resource allocation over the next three years. Third, we present analysis of government pay and employment trends, which are strongly concentrated in the core public services that are our interest.