Causality effect between electricity consumption and gross domestic product in SA and the effectiveness of the predictive techniques
The aim of this study was to investigate the relationship and direction between electricity consumption and gross domestic product including energy infrastructure as a third variable in South Africa using the time series data from 1993 to 2015. The relationship was modelled in South Africa focusing on the industry sectors that influence economic growth and using techniques such as ARIMA model, Multivariate Regression Analysis, Vector Autoregressive and Granger Causal Test. The Vector Autoregressive model performed better than Multivariate Regression analysis in modelling the relationship between consumption and economic growth in South Africa. The Granger causal effect illustrated a direction from consumption to economic growth and again Granger cause effect from infrastructure to economic growth. The results from these models revealed that there was a relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth, as well as electricity infrastructure. South Africa supports a growth hypothesis meaning that South Africa is energy dependent. The results of the study signals that the electricity consumption of South Africa have an effect on the economic growth.
A research report submitted to the Faculty of Science, University of the Witwatersrand, in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science May 23, 2017
Intamba, Sheila (2017) Causality effect between electricity consumption and gross domestic product in SA and the effectiveness of the predictive techniques, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, <http://hdl.handle.net/10539/23504>