Early warning systems for economic crises in South Africa.
Date
2013-05-15
Authors
Ramos, Nicole Diana
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Abstract
This paper develops a series of Early Warning System models for debt crises. This paper uses a Debt Pressure index to define crisis periods and then demonstrates how one can go about trying to forecast these periods using Logit and Markov-switching Models. An alternative approach, whereby ordinary least squares (OLS) is used to create Early Warning System models, is introduced. A graphical analysis is also conducted. Three useful Early Warning System models emerge from this study.
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Keywords
Financial crises, Debt, Economic forecasting, South Africa