The estimation of AIDS-related deaths amongst the black population of South Africa and the impact on the ASSA AIDS model
Date
2014-05-30
Authors
Mitchell, Julie-Anne
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Abstract
This dissertation reviews the AIDS epidemic in South Africa. The mathematical
structures o f various AIDS models are compared. The model produced by the
Actuarial Society o f South Africa is outlined in detail as it is accessible, o f recent
origin and in use. Existing models are based on HIV prevalence data only.
Projected deaths m ay therefore be inaccurate. AIDS-related deaths occurring
w ithin the black population are estimated from CSS reports, with adjustments for
underreporting. Between 10 000 and 15 000 and between 20 000 and 25 000
AIDS-related deaths appear to have occurred during 1993 and 1994 respectively.
Analysis by recorded cause o f death and occupation group is performed to
formulate the profile an AIDS-related death. KwaZulu-Natal deaths were
estimated separately. Estimates are tentative due to poor data quality. The ASSA
model was calibrated against the estimates by changing specific parameters, and
projections were revised. Finally, the calibrated model was applied to a typical
insurance problem.