The estimation of AIDS-related deaths amongst the black population of South Africa and the impact on the ASSA AIDS model

Mitchell, Julie-Anne
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This dissertation reviews the AIDS epidemic in South Africa. The mathematical structures o f various AIDS models are compared. The model produced by the Actuarial Society o f South Africa is outlined in detail as it is accessible, o f recent origin and in use. Existing models are based on HIV prevalence data only. Projected deaths m ay therefore be inaccurate. AIDS-related deaths occurring w ithin the black population are estimated from CSS reports, with adjustments for underreporting. Between 10 000 and 15 000 and between 20 000 and 25 000 AIDS-related deaths appear to have occurred during 1993 and 1994 respectively. Analysis by recorded cause o f death and occupation group is performed to formulate the profile an AIDS-related death. KwaZulu-Natal deaths were estimated separately. Estimates are tentative due to poor data quality. The ASSA model was calibrated against the estimates by changing specific parameters, and projections were revised. Finally, the calibrated model was applied to a typical insurance problem.