1. Academic Wits Research Publications (Faculties submissions)

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Association between internal migration and epidemic dynamics: an analysis of cause-specific mortality in Kenya and South Africa using health and demographic surveillance data
(BioMed Central, 2018-07) Ginsburg, Carren; Bocquier, Philippe; Kahn, Kathleen; Collinson, Mark A.; Béguy, Donatien; Afolabi, Sulaimon; Obor, David; Tanser, Frank; Tomita, Andrew; Wamukoya, Marylene
Background: Many low- and middle-income countries are facing a double burden of disease with persisting high levels of infectious disease, and an increasing prevalence of non-communicable disease (NCD). Within these settings, complex processes and transitions concerning health and population are underway, altering population dynamics and patterns of disease. Understanding the mechanisms through which changing socioeconomic and environmental contexts may influence health is central to developing appropriate public health policy. Migration, which involves a change in environment and health exposure, is one such mechanism. Methods: This study uses Competing Risk Models to examine the relationship between internal migration and premature mortality from AIDS/TB and NCDs. The analysis employs 9 to 14 years of longitudinal data from four Health and Demographic Surveillance Systems (HDSS) of the INDEPTH Network located in Kenya and South Africa (populations ranging from 71 to 223 thousand). The study tests whether the mortality of migrants converges to that of non-migrants over the period of observation, controlling for age, sex and education level. Results: In all four HDSS, AIDS/TB has a strong influence on overall deaths. However, in all sites the probability of premature death (45q15) due to AIDS/TB is declining in recent periods, having exceeded 0.39 in the South African sites and 0.18 in the Kenyan sites in earlier years. In general, the migration effect presents similar patterns in relation to both AIDS/TB and NCD mortality, and shows a migrant mortality disadvantage with no convergence between migrants and non-migrants over the period of observation. Return migrants to the Agincourt HDSS (South Africa) are on average four times more likely to die of AIDS/TB or NCDs than are non-migrants. In the Africa Health Research Institute (South Africa) female return migrants have approximately twice the risk of dying from AIDS/TB from the year 2004 onwards, while there is a divergence to higher AIDS/TB mortality risk amongst female migrants to the Nairobi HDSS from 2010. Conclusion: Results suggest that structural socioeconomic issues, rather than epidemic dynamics are likely to be associated with differences in mortality risk by migrant status. Interventions aimed at improving recent migrant’s access to treatment may mitigate risk.
Urban residence and elevated blood pressure among migrant women in South Africa
(Elsevier) Pheiffer, Chantel F.; McGarvey, Stephen T.; Ginsburg, Carren; White, Michael
This paper demonstrates that internal migration may be contributing to rising non-communicable disease risk in low- and middle-income countries in gendered and geographically differentiated ways. With 2018 baseline data from the Migrant Health Follow-Up Study, we investigate the relationship between internal migration and elevated blood pressure (BP) among 2163 rural-origin men and women in South Africa, testing for sex differences. To examine the influence of place, we test whether the migration-BP relationship differs by migrants’ destination locations, controlling for household composition, social support, prior migration, and housing quality. We find that migration is associated with elevated BP only among women, and that this association is greatest for migrants living in Tembisa township. Our research underscores that gender and migration are important social determinants of noncommunicable disease risk in low-resource, rapidly-urbanizing settings.

1. Academic Wits Research Publications (Faculties submissions)

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