Faculty of Commerce, Law and Management (Research Outputs)

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Author: search.filters.author.Madonko, ThokozileSubject: search.filters.subject.MTBPS

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    Budget 2025 Preview: Pressures and tensions along the austerity road to fiscal sustainability
    (Southern Centre for Inequality Studies, 2025-02) Sachs, Michael; Amra, Rashaad; Madonko, Thokozile; Willcox, Owen
    This policy brief, ahead of the tabling of the 2025 Budget Review, considers the policy context and the fiscal and economic environment in which the Budget will be tabled. It considers the merits, limitations, and likely consequences of the government’s approach to budget policy over the medium term, as contained in the 2024 Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS), which redoubled efforts to consolidate public finances while attempting to promote capital spending. Since the MTBPS, several material expenditure pressures have emerged, some of which were flagged in the Public Economy Project’s (PEP) 2024 MTBPS analysis, and the economic outlook has been revised. Based on this, the Public Economy Project’s revised outlook for public finance finds that the government’s ambitious plan to stabilise debt over the medium term is unlikely to be realised.
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    Macro Fiscal Review: Reflections on public finances ahead of the 2024 Budget Review
    (Southern Centre for Inequality Studies (SCIS), 2024-02) Amra, Rashaad; Sachs, Michael; Willcox, Owen; Madonko, Thokozile
    This policy note, published before the 2024 Budget Review tabling, reviews global and domestic economic developments and fiscal developments since the 2023 Budget Review and Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS) were tabled. It considers the implications of these developments for public finances and the realisation of the state’s socioeconomic goals. This note discusses emerging expenditure pressures observed in the recent period, which would warrant government to consider in its formulation of the upcoming budget. It assesses government’s key fiscal projections presented in the 2023 MTBPS and Budget Review. And it presents the Public Economy Project’s own updated outlook for public finances – it incorporates updated economic and fiscal data, and adjusted expenditure assumptions. It further discusses the limitations of government’s current approach to fiscal policy, and presents possible adjustments that would allow for a more equitable and sustainable path for public finances.