Faculty of Health Sciences
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Item Prevalence and socio-demographic associations of diet and physical activity risk-factors for cardiovascular disease in Bo, Sierra Leone(2021-10-10) Tahir Bockarie; Maria Lisa Odland; Haja Wurie; Rashid Ansumana; Joseph Lamin; Miles Witham; Oyinlola Oyebode; Justine DaviesBackground: Little is known about modifiable dietary and physical activity risk factors for cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) in Sierra Leone. This information is critical to the development of health improvement interventions to reduce the prevalence of these diseases. This cross-sectional study investigated the prevalence and socio-demographic correlates of dietary and physical activity risk behaviours amongst adults in Bo District, Sierra Leone. Methods: Adults aged 40+ were recruited from 10 urban and 30 rural sub-districts in Bo. We examined risk factors including: ≤150 min of moderate or vigorous-intensity physical activity (MVPA) weekly, physical inactivity for ≥3 h daily, ≤5 daily portions of fruit and vegetables, and salt consumption (during cooking, at the table, and in salty snacks). We used logistic regression to investigate the relationship between these outcomes and participants' socio-demographic characteristics. Results: 1978 eligible participants (39.1% urban, 55.6% female) were included in the study. The prevalence of behavioural risk factors was 83.6% for ≤5 daily portions of fruit and vegetables; 41.4 and 91.6% for adding salt at the table or during cooking, respectively and 31.1% for eating salty snacks; 26.1% for MVPA ≤150 min weekly, and 45.6% for being physically inactive ≥3 h daily. Most MVPA was accrued at work (nearly 24 h weekly). Multivariable analysis showed that urban individuals were more likely than rural individuals to consume ≤5 daily portions of fruit and vegetables (Odds Ratio (OR) 1.09, 95% Confidence Interval (1.04-1.15)), add salt at the Table (OR 1.88 (1.82-1.94)), eat salty snacks (OR 2.00 (1.94-2.07)), and do MVPA ≤150 min weekly (OR 1.16 (1.12-1.21)). Male individuals were more likely to add salt at the Table (OR 1.23 (1.20-1.27)) or consume salty snacks (OR 1.35 (1.31-1.40)) than female individuals but were less likely to report the other behavioural risk-factors examined. Generally, people in lower wealth quintiles had lower odds of each risk factor than those in the higher wealth quintiles. Conclusion: Dietary risk factors for CVD are highly prevalent, particularly among urban residents, of Bo District, Sierra Leone. Our findings highlight that forthcoming policies in Sierra Leone need to consider modifiable risk factors for CVD in the context of urbanisation.Item Estimated effect of increased diagnosis, treatment, and control of diabetes and its associated cardiovascular risk factors among low-income and middle-income countries: a microsimulation model(2021-09-22) Sanjay Basu; David Flood; Pascal Geldsetzer; Michaela Theilmann; Maja E Marcus; Cara Ebert; Mary Mayige; Roy Wong-McClure; Farshad Farzadfar; Sahar Saeedi Moghaddam; Kokou Agoudavi; Bolormaa Norov; Corine Houehanou; Glennis Andall-Brereton; Mongal Gurung; Garry Brian; Pascal Bovet; Joao Martins; Rifat Atun; Till Bärnighausen; Sebastian Vollmer; Jen Manne-Goehler; Justine DaviesBackground Given the increasing prevalence of diabetes in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs), we aimed to estimate the health and cost implications of achieving different targets for diagnosis, treatment, and control of diabetes and its associated cardiovascular risk factors among LMICs. Methods We constructed a microsimulation model to estimate disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) lost and healthcare costs of diagnosis, treatment, and control of blood pressure, dyslipidaemia, and glycaemia among people with diabetes in LMICs. We used individual participant data—specifically from the subset of people who were defined as having any type of diabetes by WHO standards—from nationally representative, cross-sectional surveys (2006–18) spanning 15 world regions to estimate the baseline 10-year risk of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (defined as fatal and non-fatal myocardial infarction and stroke), heart failure (ejection fraction of <40%, with New York Heart Association class III or IV functional limitations), end-stage renal disease (defined as an estimated glomerular filtration rate <15 mL/min per 1∙73 m² or needing dialysis or transplant), retinopathy with severe vision loss (<20/200 visual acuity as measured by the Snellen chart), and neuropathy with pressure sensation loss (assessed by the Semmes-Weinstein 5∙07/10 g monofilament exam). We then used data from meta-analyses of randomised controlled trials to estimate the reduction in risk and the WHO OneHealth tool to estimate costs in reaching either 60% or 80% of diagnosis, treatment initiation, and control targets for blood pressure, dyslipidaemia, and glycaemia recommended by WHO guidelines. Costs were updated to 2020 International Dollars, and both costs and DALYs were computed over a 10-year policy planning time horizon at a 3% annual discount rate. Findings We obtained data from 23 678 people with diabetes from 67 countries. The median estimated 10-year risk was 10∙0% (IQR 4∙0–18∙0) for cardiovascular events, 7∙8% (5∙1–11∙8) for neuropathy with pressure sensation loss, 7∙2% (5∙6–9∙4) for end-stage renal disease, 6∙0% (4∙2–8∙6) for retinopathy with severe vision loss, and 2∙6% (1∙2–5∙3) for congestive heart failure. A target of 80% diagnosis, 80% treatment, and 80% control would be expected to reduce DALYs lost from diabetes complications from a median population-weighted loss to 1097 DALYs per 1000 population over 10 years (IQR 1051–1155), relative to a baseline of 1161 DALYs, primarily from reduced cardiovascular events (down from a median of 143 to 117 DALYs per 1000 population) due to blood pressure and statin treatment, with comparatively little effect from glycaemic control. The target of 80% diagnosis, 80% treatment, and 80% control would be expected to produce an overall incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of US$1362 per DALY averted (IQR 1304–1409), with the majority of decreased costs from reduced cardiovascular event management, counterbalanced by increased costs for blood pressure and statin treatment, producing an overall incremental costeffectiveness ratio of $1362 per DALY averted (IQR 1304–1409). Interpretation Reducing complications from diabetes in LMICs is likely to require a focus on scaling up blood pressure and statin medication treatment initiation and blood pressure medication titration rather than focusing on increasing screening to increase diabetes diagnosis, or a glycaemic treatment and control among people with diabetes.Item The socioeconomic gradient of alcohol use: an analysis of nationally representative survey data from 55 low-income and middle-income countries(2022-10-22) Yuanwei Xu; Pascal Geldsetzer; Jen Manne-Goehler; Michaela Theilmann; Maja-E Marcus; Zhaxybay Zhumadilov; Sarah Quesnel-Crooks; Omar Mwalim; Sahar Saeedi Moghaddam; Sogol Koolaji; Khem B Karki; Farshad Farzadfar; Narges Ebrahimi; Albertino Damasceno; Krishna K Aryal; Kokou Agoudavi; Rifat Atun; Till Bärnighausen; Justine Davies; Lindsay M Jaacks; Sebastian Vollmer; Charlotte ProbstBackground: Alcohol is a leading risk factor for over 200 conditions and an important contributor to socioeconomic health inequalities. However, little is known about the associations between individuals' socioeconomic circumstances and alcohol consumption, especially heavy episodic drinking (HED; ≥5 drinks on one occasion) in low-income or middle-income countries. We investigated the association between individual and household level socioeconomic status, and alcohol drinking habits in these settings. Methods: In this pooled analysis of individual-level data, we used available nationally representative surveys-mainly WHO Stepwise Approach to Surveillance surveys-conducted in 55 low-income and middle-income countries between 2005 and 2017 reporting on alcohol use. Surveys from participants aged 15 years or older were included. Logistic regression models controlling for age, country, and survey year stratified by sex and country income groups were used to investigate associations between two indicators of socioeconomic status (individual educational attainment and household wealth) and alcohol use (current drinking and HED amongst current drinkers). Findings: Surveys from 336 287 participants were included in the analysis. Among males, the highest prevalence of both current drinking and HED was found in lower-middle-income countries (L-MICs; current drinking 49·9% [95% CI 48·7-51·2] and HED 63·3% [61·0-65·7]). Among females, the prevalence of current drinking was highest in upper-middle-income countries (U-MIC; 29·5% [26·1-33·2]), and the prevalence of HED was highest in low-income countries (LICs; 36·8% [33·6-40·2]). Clear gradients in the prevalence of current drinking were observed across all country income groups, with a higher prevalence among participants with high socioeconomic status. However, in U-MICs, current drinkers with low socioeconomic status were more likely to engage in HED than participants with high socioeconomic status; the opposite was observed in LICs, and no association between socioeconomic status and HED was found in L-MICs. Interpretation: The findings call for urgent alcohol control policies and interventions in LICs and L-MICs to reduce harmful HED. Moreover, alcohol control policies need to be targeted at socially disadvantaged groups in U-MICs. Funding: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft and the National Center for Advancing Translational Sciences of the US National Institutes of Health.Item Are cardiovascular health measures heritable across three generations of families in Soweto, South Africa? A cross-sectional analysis using the random family method(2022-09-23) Lisa J Ware; Innocent Maposa; Andrea Kolkenbeck-Ruh; Shane A Norris; Larske Soepnel; Simone Crouch; Juliana Kagura; Sanushka Naidoo; Wayne Smith; Justine DaviesObjectives: Cardiovascular disease is increasing in many low and middle-income countries, including those in Africa. To inform strategies for the prevention of cardiovascular disease in South Africa, we sought to determine the broad heritability of phenotypic markers of cardiovascular risk across three generations. Design: A cross-sectional study conducted in a longitudinal family cohort. Setting: Research unit within a tertiary hospital in a historically disadvantaged, large urban township of South Africa. Participants: 195 individuals from 65 biological families with all three generations including third-generation children aged 4-10 years were recruited from the longest running intergenerational cohort study in Africa, the Birth to Twenty Plus cohort. All adults (grandparents and parents) were female while children were male or female. Primary and secondary outcome measures: The primary outcome was heritability of blood pressure (BP; brachial and central pressures). Secondary outcomes were heritability of arterial stiffness (pulse wave velocity), carotid intima media thickness (cIMT) and left ventricular mass indexed to body surface area (LVMI). Results: While no significant intergenerational relationships of BP or arterial stiffness were found, there were significant relationships in LVMI across all three generations (p<0.04), and in cIMT between grandparents and parents (p=0.0166). Heritability, the proportion of phenotypic trait variation attributable to genetics, was estimated from three common statistical methods and ranged from 23% to 44% for cIMT and from 21% to 39% for LVMI. Conclusions: Structural indicators of vascular health, which are strong markers of future clinical cardiovascular outcomes, transmit between generations within African families. Identification of these markers in parents may be useful to trigger assessments of preventable risk factors for cardiovascular disease in offspring.Item Global economic burden of unmet surgical need for appendicitis(2022-09-09) Anna Reuter; Lisa Rogge; Mark Monahan; Mwayi Kachapila; Dion G Morton; Justine Davies; Sebastian Vollmer; NIHR Global Surgery CollaborationBackground: There is a substantial gap in provision of adequate surgical care in many low- and middle-income countries. This study aimed to identify the economic burden of unmet surgical need for the common condition of appendicitis. Methods: Data on the incidence of appendicitis from 170 countries and two different approaches were used to estimate numbers of patients who do not receive surgery: as a fixed proportion of the total unmet surgical need per country (approach 1); and based on country income status (approach 2). Indirect costs with current levels of access and local quality, and those if quality were at the standards of high-income countries, were estimated. A human capital approach was applied, focusing on the economic burden resulting from premature death and absenteeism. Results: Excess mortality was 4185 per 100 000 cases of appendicitis using approach 1 and 3448 per 100 000 using approach 2. The economic burden of continuing current levels of access and local quality was US $92 492 million using approach 1 and $73 141 million using approach 2. The economic burden of not providing surgical care to the standards of high-income countries was $95 004 million using approach 1 and $75 666 million using approach 2. The largest share of these costs resulted from premature death (97.7 per cent) and lack of access (97.0 per cent) in contrast to lack of quality. Conclusion: For a comparatively non-complex emergency condition such as appendicitis, increasing access to care should be prioritized. Although improving quality of care should not be neglected, increasing provision of care at current standards could reduce societal costs substantially.Item Burden of mortality linked to community-nominated priorities in rural South Africa(2021-11-26) Pyry Mattila; Justine Davies; Denny Mabetha; Stephen Tollman; Lucia D’AmbruosoBackground: Community knowledge is a critical input for relevant health programmes and strategies. How community perceptions of risk reflect the burden of mortality is poorly understood. Objective: To determine the burden of mortality reflecting community-nominated health risk factors in rural South Africa, where a complex health transition is underway. Methods: Three discussion groups (total 48 participants) representing a cross-section of the community nominated health priorities through a Participatory Action Research process. A secondary analysis of Verbal Autopsy (VA) data was performed for deaths in the same community from 1993 to 2015 (n = 14,430). Using population attributable fractions (PAFs) extracted from Global Burden of Disease data for South Africa, deaths were categorised as ‘attributable at least in part’ to community-nominated risk factors if the PAF of the risk factor to the cause of death was >0. We also calculated ‘reducible mortality fractions’ (RMFs), defined as the proportions of each and all community-nominated risk factor(s) relative to all possible risk factors for deaths in the population . Results: Three risk factors were nominated as the most important health concerns locally: alcohol abuse, drug abuse, and lack of safe water. Of all causes of deaths 1993–2015, over 77% (n = 11,143) were attributable at least in part to at least one community-nominated risk factor. Causes of attributable deaths, at least in part, to alcohol abuse were most common (52.6%, n = 7,591), followed by drug abuse (29.3%, n = 4,223), and lack of safe water (11.4%, n = 1,652). In terms of the RMF, alcohol use contributed the largest percentage of all possible risk factors leading to death (13.6%), then lack of safe water (7.0%), and drug abuse (1.3%) . Conclusion: A substantial proportion of deaths are linked to community-nominated risk factors. Community knowledge is a critical input to understand local health risks.Item Lower limb amputations among individuals living with diabetes mellitus in low- and middle-income countries: A systematic review protocol(2022-04-14) Eyitayo Omolara Owolabi; Davies Adeloye; Anthony Idowu AjayiID; Michael McCaul; Justine Davies; Kathryn M. ChuThe burden of diabetes mellitus (DM) and its associated complications continue to burgeon, particularly in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Lower limb amputation (LLA) is one of the most life-altering complications of DM, associated with significant morbidity, mortality and socio-economic impacts. High-income countries have reported a decreasing incidence of DM-associated LLA, but the situation in many LMICs is unknown. We aim to conduct a systematic review to determine the incidence and prevalence of DMassociated LLA in LMICs to better inform appropriate interventions and health system response. Methods and analysis A systematic search of the literature will be conducted on five databases: MEDLINE, Embase, Cumulative Index of Nursing and Allied Health Literature (CINAHL), Scopus and African Journal Online (AJOL). Only observational, quantitative studies reporting the incidence and/or prevalence of DM-related LLA will be considered. A validated study designspecific critical appraisal tool will be used to assess the risk of bias in individual studies. We will determine the incidence of LLA by examining the number of new cases of LLA among individuals with confirmed DM diagnosis during the specified period, while the prevalence will be based on the total number of all new and existing LLAs in a population. LLA will be considered as the resection of the lower limb from just above the knee to any point down to the toe. If heterogeneity is low to moderate, a random-effects meta-analysis will be conducted on extracted crude prevalence/incidence rates, with the median and interquartile range also reported. The systematic review will be performed in accordance with the JBI guideline for prevalence and incidence review. Study reporting will follow the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Review and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guideline.Item Obesity, hypertension, and tobacco use associated with left ventricular remodeling and hypertrophy in South African women: Birth to Twenty Plus Cohort(2022) Andrea Kolkenbeck‑Ruh; Larske M. Soepnel; Simone H. Crouch; Sanushka Naidoo; Wayne Smith; Shane A. Norris; Justine Davies; Lisa J. WareBackground: Left ventricular hypertrophy (LVH) is a marker of increased risk in developing future life-threatening cardiovascular disease (CVD), however, it is unclear how CVD risk factors, such as obesity, blood pressure (BP), and tobacco use, are associated with left ventricular (LV) remodeling and LVH in urban African populations. Therefore, we aimed to identify the prevalence of LVH as well as the health factors associated with LV remodeling and LVH, within black South African adult women and their pre-pubescent children. Methods: Black female adults (n=123; age: 29–68 years) and their children (n=64; age: 4–10; 55% female) were recruited from the Birth to Twenty Plus Cohort in Soweto, South Africa. Tobacco and alcohol use, physical activity, presence of diabetes mellitus, heart disease, and medication were self-reported. Height, weight, and blood pressure were measured in triplicate to determine the prevalence of obesity and hypertension respectively. Echocardiogra‑ phy was used to assess LV mass at end-diastole, based on linear measurements, and indexed to body surface area to determine LVH. Results: Hypertension and obesity prevalences were 35.8% and 59.3% for adults and 45.3% and 6.3% for children. Self-reported tobacco use in adults was 22.8%. LVH prevalence was 35.8% in adults (75% eccentric: 25% concentric), and 6.3% in children. Concentric remodeling was observed in 15.4% of adults, however, concentric remodeling was only found in one child. In adults, obesity [OR: 2.54 (1.07–6.02; p=0.02)] and hypertension [3.39 (1.08–10.62; p=0.04)] signifcantly increased the odds of LVH, specifcally eccentric LVH, while concentric LVH was associated with selfreported tobacco use [OR: 4.58 (1.18–17.73; p=0.03)]. Although no logistic regression was run within children, of the four children LVH, three had elevated blood pressure and the child with normal blood pressure was overweight. Conclusions: The association between obesity, hypertension, tobacco use, and LVH in adults, and the 6% prevalence of LVH in children, calls for stronger public health eforts to control risk factors and monitor children who are at risk.Item Prioritising and mapping barriers to achieve equitable surgical care in South Africa: a multi-disciplinary stakeholder workshop(2022-04-14) Tamlyn Mac Quene; Luné Smith; Maria Lisa Odland; Susan Levine; Lucia D’Ambruoso; Justine Davies; Kathryn ChuBackground: Surgical healthcare in South Africa is inequitable with a considerable lack of resources in the public health sector. Identifying barriers to care and creating research priorities to mitigate these barriers can contribute to strategic interventions to improve equitable access to quality surgical care. Objective: To use the Four Delays Framework to map barriers to surgical care and identify priorities to achieve equitable and timely access to quality surgical care in South Africa. Methods: A multi-disciplinary stakeholder workshop was held in Cape Town, South Africa in January 2020. A Four Delays Framework (delays in seeking care, reaching care, receiving care, and remaining in care) was used to identify barriers that occur at each delay and the top 10 priorities for intervention. Barriers were categorised into overarching themes and schematically mapped. Results: Thirty-four stakeholders including health service users, health service providers, and community members participated in this exercise. In total, 34 barriers were identified with 73 connections to various delays. Specifically, 14 barriers were related to delays in seeking care, 11 were related to delays in reaching care, 20 were related to delays in receiving care, and 28 were related to delays in remaining in care. The highest priority barriers across the delays were Lack of service provider’s knowledge, training and experience, and Limited surgical outreach. The barrier Lack of decentralised services was related to all four delays. Barriers were interconnected and potentially reinforcing. Conclusions: This workshop is the first of its kind to generate evidence on the delays to surgical care in South Africa. Mapping crucial interconnected, potentially reinforcing barriers, and priority interventions demonstrated how a multifaceted approach may be required to address delays to access. Further research focused on the identified priorities will contribute to efforts to promote equitable access to quality surgical care in South Africa.Item Prioritising and mapping barriers to achieve equitable surgical care in South Africa: a multi-disciplinary stakeholder workshop(2022-04-15) Tamlyn Mac Quene; Luné Smith; Maria Lisa Odland; Susan Levine; Lucia D’Ambruoso; Justine Davies; Kathryn ChuBackground: Surgical healthcare in South Africa is inequitable with a considerable lack of resources in the public health sector. Identifying barriers to care and creating research priorities to mitigate these barriers can contribute to strategic interventions to improve equitable access to quality surgical care. Objective: To use the Four Delays Framework to map barriers to surgical care and identify priorities to achieve equitable and timely access to quality surgical care in South Africa. Methods: A multi-disciplinary stakeholder workshop was held in Cape Town, South Africa in January 2020. A Four Delays Framework (delays in seeking care, reaching care, receiving care, and remaining in care) was used to identify barriers that occur at each delay and the top 10 priorities for intervention. Barriers were categorised into overarching themes and schematically mapped. Results: Thirty-four stakeholders including health service users, health service providers, and community members participated in this exercise. In total, 34 barriers were identified with 73 connections to various delays. Specifically, 14 barriers were related to delays in seeking care, 11 were related to delays in reaching care, 20 were related to delays in receiving care, and 28 were related to delays in remaining in care. The highest priority barriers across the delays were Lack of service provider’s knowledge, training and experience, and Limited surgical outreach. The barrier Lack of decentralised services was related to all four delays. Barriers were interconnected and potentially reinforcing. Conclusions: This workshop is the first of its kind to generate evidence on the delays to surgical care in South Africa. Mapping crucial interconnected, potentially reinforcing barriers, and priority interventions demonstrated how a multifaceted approach may be required to address delays to access. Further research focused on the identified priorities will contribute to efforts to promote equitable access to quality surgical care in South Africa.