Gauteng City-Region Observatory (GCRO)

Permanent URI for this communityhttps://hdl.handle.net/10539/36900

The Gauteng City-Region Observatory (GCRO) was established in 2008 as a partnership between the University of Johannesburg (UJ), the University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg (Wits) and the Gauteng Provincial Government (GPG), with local government in Gauteng also represented on the GCRO Board. Behind the motivation for setting up the GCRO is a vision for South Africa's economic heartland as a region that is competitive, spatially integrated, environmentally sustainable and socially inclusive. GCRO is charged with helping to build the knowledge base that government, business, labour, civil society and citizens all need to make this vision a reality. GCRO collects data and benchmarks the city-region, provides policy analysis and support, undertakes applied research, and publishes critically reflective academic work.

Visit the GCRO home page at www.gcro.ac.za

For information on accessing Gauteng City-Region Observatory (GCRO) content please contact Bongi Mphuti via email : bongi.mphuti@wits.ac.za or Tel (W) : 011 717 1978

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Author: search.filters.author.Cheruiyot, Koech

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    Modelling urban spatial change: a review of international and South African modelling initiatives
    (2013-08) Wray, Chris; Musango, Josephine; Damon, Kavesha; Cheruiyot, Koech
    Urban growth and land use change models have the potential to become important tools for urban spatial planning and management. Before embarking on any modelling, however, GCRO felt it was important to take note of, and critically assess lessons to be learnt from international experience and scholarship on spatial modelling, as well as a number of South African experiments that model future urban development. In 2012, GCRO initiated preliminary research into current international and South African modelling trends through a desktop study and telephone, email and personal interviews. This Occasional paper sets out to investigate what urban spatial change modelling research is currently being undertaken internationally and within South Africa. At the international level, urban modelling research since 2000 is reviewed according to five main categories: land use transportation (LUT), cellular automata, urban system dynamics, agent-based models (ABMs) and spatial economics/econometric models (SE/EMs). Within South Africa, urban modelling initiatives are categorised differently and include a broader range of urban modelling techniques. Typologies used include: provincial government modelling initiatives in Gauteng; municipal government modelling initiatives; other government-funded modelling research; and academic modelling research. The various modelling initiatives described are by no means a comprehensive review of all urban spatial change modelling projects in South Africa, but provide a broad indication of the types of urban spatial change modelling underway. Importantly, the models may form the basis for more accurate and sophisticated urban modelling projects in the future. The paper concludes by identifying key urban modelling opportunities and challenges for short- to long-term planning in the GCR and South Africa.