3. Electronic Theses and Dissertations (ETDs) - All submissions
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Item Framing issues of environmental security in Angola & Mozambique - the nexus of land, conflicts and sustainable livelihoods in post-conflict situations(2009-05-19T08:33:19Z) Clover, Jeanette LeeABSTRACT Violent and protracted conflicts, such as those that affected Mozambique and Angola (both countries with a Lusophone colonial heritage), have had severe consequences in terms of wartime dislocation and destruction, especially in rural areas. Land issues per se are not endogenously conflictive, but in post-conflict settings, the scramble for access to the assets necessary to (re-)establish livelihoods for large numbers of people, as well as the pursuit of land access by large-scale commercial interests who capitalise on a fluid land tenure situation to acquire resources, may occur. A nuanced and comparative study of Mozambique and Angola is undertaken that explores the relationship between violence, resources and the environment. It asks two questions: i) What accounts for the relationship between violence (evidenced in both brutal physical acts, threats and increasing vulnerabilities) and land as a resource? ii) Are there lessons to be learnt from these findings that are particular to countries emerging from protracted civil wars? The thesis explores the changing discourses around the concepts of human security and environmental security, and the pressing land issues confronting the African continent. It highlights the complexity of issues – political, social and economic – and the necessity for a theoretical shift away from the popular approaches towards alternative ways of understanding the connections between the environment, violence and resources. It examines the specific dynamics of a post-conflict environment, an area that has received little attention, despite its potential for playing a significant role in ensuring broad-based development and in peace-building. A modified livelihoods framework is also used to analyse land issues on the basis that land is an element of a wider livelihoods approach with a focus on poverty alleviation and wealth creation. Findings mirror those of other international researchers who have found that conflicts over land often have less to do with resource scarcity, but that “violence is more likely when resources are in great abundance or have great economic and strategic value” (Peluso and Watts, 2001: 5). Furthermore, findings support the calls for taking a more inclusive concept of violence and non-violence that recognises that the outward manifestation of disputes may not be violence in the form of civil war, but social disruptions (Liotta, 2005). The value of a post-structuralist political ecology for analysing these various connections is demonstrated in the research findings. It is one which does not search for ‘environmental triggers’ of violent conflicts, but looks at the reciprocal relationship between nature and humans. Both countries are confronting many of the land issues that are common to Africa and which suggest an important new phase in the politics of land. In Angola land tenure and shelter are now insecure for many in both rural and urban areas, while in both countries there is mounting competition and conflict over land and landed resources. There are increasing threats of exclusionary practices and land grabs, but also the more subtle, ‘non-traditional’ security threats of the destruction and damage to livelihoods, of deepening impoverishment, evident in "creeping vulnerabilities”. The findings of the research confirm that in dealing with both equity and efficiency issues, and environmental sustainability and political stability, land policies need to be well integrated into wider social, economic and environmental planning – at various levels, local to global – to strengthen sustainable security. vi Land conflicts are generally contained as local-level disputes, often camouflaged by government or suppressed. While conflict theory points to apparent triggers – differential impacts and political mobilisation – it must be acknowledged that these tensions are more often than not politically sustainable, as leaders justify overriding the interests of the poor in the interests of growth. Furthermore, peace is not the default mode of society: conflicts are at times an integral part of the transformation of land tenures systems and not necessarily destructive in themselves. Concerns need to focus, rather, on those cases where inequity and violence are politically sustainable, and what this means for human security. It is this issue that is recommended for further research. “In contrast to thinking about violent conflict, a human-centred conceptualisation of environmental security asserts the need for cooperation and inclusion to manage the environment for the equal benefit of all people and future generations” (Barnett, 2001: 128).Item A computational intelligence approach to modelling interstate conflict : Forecasting and causal interpretations(2008-12-03T12:28:41Z) Tettey, ThandoThe quantitative study of conflict management is concerned with finding models which are accurate and also capable of providing a causal interpretation of results. This dissertation applies computational intelligence methods to study interstate disputes. Both multilayer perceptron neural networks and Takagi-Sugeno neuro-fuzzy models are used to model interstate interactions. The multilayer perceptron neural network is trained in the Bayesian framework, using the Hybrid Monte Carlo method to sample from the posterior probabilities. It is found that the network is able to forecast conflict with an accuracy of 77.3%. A hybrid machine learning method using the neural network and the genetic algorithm is then presented as a method of suggesting how conflict can be brought under control. The automatic relevance determination approach and the sensitivity analysis are used as methods of extracting causal information from the neural network. The Takagi-Sugeno neuro-fuzzy model is optimised, using the Gustafson-Kessel clustering algorithm to partion the input space. It is found that the neuro-fuzzy model predicts conflict with an accuracy of 80.1%. The neuro-fuzzy model is also incorporated into the hybrid machine learning method to suggest how the identified conflict cases can be avoided. The casual interpretation is then formulated by a linguistic approximation of the fuzzy rules extracted from the neuro-fuzzy model. The major finding in this work is that the interpretations drawn from both the neural network and the neuro-fuzzy model are consistent.Item The effectiveness of the "Mato-Oput 5" curriculum in changing school children's attitudes towards conflict and violence, and in reducing pupil perpetrated acts of violence(2007-02-19T13:34:10Z) Mutto, MiltonObjectives The study evaluated the effectiveness of the “Mato-Oput 5” curriculum in changing children’s attitudes towards conflict and violence and preventing violent acts by them; specifically, it determined attitudes differences between children exposed to and those not exposed to the intervention, and compared rates and trends of pupil-perpetrated intentional (violent) and severe intentional incidents among the children who were taught and those were not taught the curriculum. Methods and setting The study was analysis of secondary data from a community trial. The original study had been conducted in a war affected rural district in Northern Uganda in 2002. Results The intervention and control groups had comparable demographic characteristics, attitudes towards conflicts and violence, and rates of intentional and severe intentional incidents (violence) before intervention. After intervention, they remained comparable with regard to their demographic characteristics and rates and trends of intentional and severe intentional incidents. Their attitudes towards conflicts and violence, however, differed significantly, with the intervention group tending towards forgiving of offenders, and away from forceful response to provocation more than the control group. Both groups had post-intervention rate reductions in intentional incidents, and rate increments in severe intentional incidents. The pre-intervention incident rates in the intervention and control groups were 270/1000 and 370/1000 respectively, while the post-intervention rates were 190/1000 and 350/1000 respectively. Before intervention, seven in every 1000 incidents in the intervention group required school first aid or treatment in a health facility (severe incidents) as compared to 12 in every 1000 in the control group. These rates increased to 150/1000 and 160/1000 respectively after intervention. Conclusions The Mato-Oput 5 curriculum was effective in changing children’s attitudes towards conflict and violence: the intervention group tended towards forgiveness of offenders and non-forceful responses to provocation more than the control group. The rates and trends of pupil-perpetrated intentional (violent) and severe intentional incidents in the two groups of children, however, remained comparable.