3. Electronic Theses and Dissertations (ETDs) - All submissions
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Item The relationship between the South African Rand and commodity prices: examining cointegration and causality between the nominal classes(2011-11-28) Ndlovu, XolaniWe employ OLS analysis on a VAR Model to test the “commodity currency” hypothesis of the Rand (i.e. that the currency moves in sympathy with commodity prices) and examine the associated causality using nominal data between 1996 and 2010. We address the question of cointegration using the Engle-Granger test. We find that level series of both assets are difference stationary but not cointegrated. Further, we find the two variables negatively related with strong and significant causality running from commodity prices to the exchange rate and not vice versa, implying exogeneity to the determination of commodity prices with respect to the nominal exchange rate. The strength of the relationship is significantly weaker than other OECD commodity currencies. We surmise that the relationship is dynamic over time owing to the portfolio-rebalance argument and the Commodity Terms of Trade (CTT) effect and in the absence of an error correction mechanism, this disconnect may be prolonged. For commodity and currency market participants, this implies that while futures and forward commodity prices may be useful leading indicators of future currency movements, the price risk management strategies may need to be recalibrated over time. For monetary policy makers, to manage commodity price risk and concentration risk on the country’s exports, we suggest establishment of a selfinsurance scheme such as a Commodity Stabilisation Fund established in Chile in 1985.Item The rise of political advertising on television in South Africa and its implications for democracy.(2011-04-26) Sindane, SibongileThe general debate around political advertising on television has been that the political advertisements on television concentrate more on the images rather than the political issues and thus, create an electorate who is entertained by the catchy slogans and this hinders a well informed decision. The study investigates the rise of political advertising on television in South Africa and its implications for democracy. It is focused on the 2009 pre-elections and specifically on the political advertisements which appeared on national television during the pre-election period beginning from 30th March 2009 up until 20th April 2009. The study also examines the extent to which political advertisements on television commodify politics. Furthermore, it explores the themes covered in the political advertisements on television and the extent to which these political advertisements focus on the images than the themes. In addition, the study also looks into the underlying issues and complexities, such as regulation and funding and financing issues which are hidden from the public glare, accompanying the images and messages seen on television around election time. Qualitative methods are used and the study is both descriptive and explorative and as means of interpreting the data, thematic content analysis is used. The critical political economy of the media theory is employed as well as the democratic theories of the media, with a key focus on liberal democracy and deliberative democracy. Thus the findings showed that the political advertisements on television in South Africa were informative as they concentrated more on the themes than the images and, in many instances where the images were used it was mainly to support the message. However, the political advertisements had some emotional appeals which communicated emotions of sadness and despair as well as emotions of happiness and success. Character appeals were used at minimum and it was only three political parties which made use of their leaders with only one political party, out of the three, using their leader throughout the advertisement. The issue of commodity in politics was very prominent in the political advertisements on television thus it can be concluded that political advertising on television commodify politics to a large extent in the production and distribution process but to a minimum extent in the content. The implications of the rise of political advertising on television for democracy are twofold because they are both positive and negative. It is recommended that the regulations on political advertising on television be re-visited and reviewed. Thus, a prospective model for the regulation of political advertising on television is also illustrated in the study.