3. Electronic Theses and Dissertations (ETDs) - All submissions
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Item Research report: South African commercial real estate as an inflation hedge(2019) Taderera, MarimoOne of the primary objectives of any investment manager is to protect investors’ wealth against the negative effects of inflation. Real estate investments have traditionally been viewed as a good inflation hedge. Property has been included in mixed asset portfolios for two main reasons, the first being for diversification benefits, the second being for its alleged inflation hedging benefits. Escalation clauses in lease agreements and rent reviews are the mechanisms through which investors adjust rentals for inflation, and do not necessarily allow investors to adjust rentals for inflation instantaneously. The purpose of this study is to investigate the inflation hedging ability of South African Commercial Real Estate investments (CRE) and employs quantitative techniques to study the relationship between Inflation rates and CRE returns. The Vector Error Correction (VEC) model for cointegrated time series was used to investigate the long run relationship between property returns and inflation. This study finds that retail and industrial property hedge against inflation in the long-run, with retail property being the better inflation hedge of the two property typesItem A framework for mergers and acquisitions due diligence: lessons from selected REITs in South Africa(2018) Mabece, YongamaIn April 2013, the South African listed property sector converted from Property Unit Trust and Property Loan Stock investment structures into a Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) structure that is understood globally. This conversion spurred consolidations in the property market in the form of mergers and acquisitions. Research shows that mergers and acquisitions tend to have high failure rates as growth strategies. It remains unknown how sufficient traditional due diligence is and how it can be improved to enhance the chances of successful corporate marriages within the South African REIT market. This paper reviews the aspects of the traditional due diligence scope which generally comprises of financial, legal and commercial due diligence in order to determine its adequacy as a decision making tool that helps reduce the risk of failure in REIT merger and acquisition transactions in South Africa. There is consensus in the literature that due diligence is a means to reduce the risk of merger and acquisition failure, some studies suggest that failure occurs when due diligence is not done well. This paper uses interviews conducted with due diligence professionals from seven REIT companies listed on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange who were involved in large merger and acquisition transactions in the preceding four years. The interviews were used to ascertain how the professionals perform due diligence, whether or not they think that traditional due diligence is sufficient for REIT mergers and acquisitions and to solicit their views on how the due diligence scope can be expanded. Transcribed data from each of the interviews was analysed based on three concurrent sub-processes adapted from the works of Miles and Huberman (1994) which consist of data reduction, data display and drawing and verifying conclusions. The results show that the traditional due diligence scope is not sufficient for REIT merger and acquisition transactions, a majority of the respondents agree with this observation. Encouragingly the professionals within the South African REIT market have a due diligence scope which is already much wider than the iii traditional scope, be that as it may, there is still a high failure rate of 59% observed in the sample analysed. Due diligence professionals have a low regard for understanding and resolving the different companies cultural issues, this is cited in the literature as one of the contributing factors for merger and acquisition failure. This is an area that can possibly augment the due diligence cycle and professionals should focus on it in order to improve the chances of success. The research proposes expanding the due diligence scope by incorporating strategic due diligence which is forward looking and it overcomes the challenges of traditional due diligence of relying on historic information. Strategic due diligence assists the acquirers understand the target’s future prospects, and it allows the acquirers to determine if the target prospects fit with their own strategic objectives. This together with a higher focus on understanding and resolving cultural issues of the merging companies should augment the traditional scope and ultimately lead to transactions that yield higher shareholder value.Item Profit for change: catalysing architecture through commerce and identity(2017) Leshaba, TebogoInformal communities seem to thrive due to their ability to invent and adapt resilient organic systems. Although programmes are often conceptualized to intervene in social, economic or institutional settings, very few are able to address what I believe to be the problem underlying in many instances; money. The ability to attract, develop and maintain commerce in a closed system will determine the efficiency and dependency a community will have on external forces. The quest for a self-sustaining economic system suggests a move towards creating complex commercial urban centres which can operate outside the parameters of a formal economy. History has provided such models, where out of necessity, informal industries have taken structure and found ways to attach to the mainstream economy. My line of questioning stems from these principles and seeks to explore modes of community empowerment initiatives. The goal is to identify the necessary framework that will allow capitalist constructs to prevail within informal systems. At the crux of economic emancipation for informal communities in South Africa must exist an environment that compels a shift in attitude for the mobilisation change. The state in its incumbency to deliver radical social transformation is in the best position to act, but history has shown that movements which were born from the society, despite financial, political & social hardships, have the propensity to dramatically advance and flourish along a greater trajectory.Item Drivers of direct commercial real estate returns: evidence from South Africa(2016) Mkhabela, NikiweBackground – The South African (SA) real estate sector lacks transparency and there is limited research and robust data on the performance drivers of underlying commercial real estate assets in investment portfolios as opposed to the residential and listed property sectors in the SA context. SA real estate competes internationally and the rapid growth in emerging countries is creating new real estate players and growing competition for real estate investment opportunities (PwC, 2015). It is important for investors in the industry to understand the factors that affect the sector’s performance to be able to plan, review investment strategies, allocate resources efficiently, understand past trends and manage future risks. Purpose - The purpose of the study is to understand the performance of the SA direct commercial real estate sector and identify the key factors that drive the sector’s total returns in the country. Literature review is conducted to identify factors that drive direct commercial real returns in other countries and the identified drivers are tested for relevancy in the SA market. The study applies SA annual commercial real estate returns published by the International Property Databank (IPD) over the past 20 years, from 1995 to 2014, as dependent variables. Findings - Using Pearson’s correlation analysis, the study tests for correlations between CRE returns and independent variables; macroeconomic indicators (exogenous factors) and property performance variables (endogenous factors). The study finds gross rental escalation and real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rates to be highly positively correlated with direct real estate returns. The results provide evidence that gross rental escalation and real GDP have high explanatory values of commercial real estate returns. The study concludes that rental income growth and economic growth are the key drivers of direct commercial real estate total returns. Value - The findings provide evidence of the correlations that exist between exogenous, endogenous variables and CRE returns and assist in understanding the behaviour of the direct commercial real estate sector. This study sets a basis for real estate investments analysis and the results can be applied in asset allocation strategies by guiding investors on the direction CRE returns could take based on performance of the widely published macroeconomic and property performance variables under study. Limitations - The limitation to this study is that the dependent variables, SA annual commercial real estate returns, has time series data of 20 variables in its existence and this has restricted the quantitative methodology choice, hence the use of correlation analysis to quantitatively analyse the relationships that exist between CRE returns and the exogenous and endogenous factors. Further research in the topic would include regression analysis to test for causality. This study has implications on real estate investment decision making and contributes to real estate market literature in SA.Item The proximity effects of the planned commercial property development at O.R. Tambo International Airport on adjacent residential properties(2016) Mkhasibe, Menziwezintozonke SkhumbuzoThe two main traditional revenue streams for airports are aeronautical and non-aeronautical revenues. In recent times, factors such as the slowing economic growth, terrorism threats, aircraft fuel hikes and fierce airline competition have contributed in reduced aeronautical revenues. The decline in aeronautical revenues has seen a shift of focus where most international airports now pursue business strategies to increase their non-aeronautical revenues. Airports in developed countries such as Schiphol, Brisbane, Adelaide, Canberra, Perth are recorded in literature to have shifted their focus to exploit the vast undeveloped land within the airport precincts through enabling the undeveloped land to be taken up for commercial property developments. This has allowed these airports to increase their non-aeronautical revenues in light of the declining aeronautical revenues. In South Africa, Airports Company South Africa (ACSA) announced its intention in year 2010 to unlock undeveloped airport land for commercial property developments within the nine airports that it operates. At O.R. Tambo International Airport (one of airports owned by ACSA), ACSA publicly announced the availability of pieces of land within the airport which can be taken up for commercial developments by private investors. One of the pieces of land is located in close proximity to existing airport adjoining residential houses in a suburb called Bonaero Park. Authors in existing literature have discussed availability of both positive and negative proximity effects of commercial properties on adjoining residential houses. This study researched the proximity effects of one of the proposed commercial property development at O.R. Tambo International Airport (ORTIA) on the houses in Bonaero Park through analyzing houses sales data of the suburb in the period of 2006 to 2014. A pre-announcement period was defined in the study from 2006 to 2010 and a post-announcement period defined from 2011 to 2014. House sales data from both the pre-announcement and post announcement period was analysed using quantitative methodologies. Qualitative data was gathered through conducting audio recorded interviews with Estate Agents who conducted house sales in Bonaero Park. Findings of the study reveal that the at both the pre-announcement and post-announcement periods, the South African residential property market was going through a tumultuous period which revealed that the announcement by ACSA to unlock the piece of land located in close proximity to the residential houses in Bonaero Park did not produce positive or negative proximity effects.