3. Electronic Theses and Dissertations (ETDs) - All submissions
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Item African frontier markets: extent of illiquidity and inherent private equity investment opportunities(2013-08-27) Du Toit, Willem JohannesThis study investigates the current private equity market in African frontier markets as well as inherent investment opportunities in these African frontier markets. The research includes an analysis of, inter-alia, the following: the development of capital markets in Africa, the classification of African frontier markets, the measurement of liquidity, the relationship between liquidity and asset prices and the history of private equity. This study will highlight to policymakers both in African and in donor capitals the need to implement strategies that will support investment (especially private equity investment) into the continent. The research carried out in this study should contribute to a better understanding of illiquidity risks of African frontier markets and show how these can be mitigated. This study will also provide key information on African frontier markets to investors and fund managers in order for them to understand that a typical investment strategy for investing in developed markets cannot be applied to frontier markets. The study analyses data of listed stocks on selected African stock exchanges and compares this to data for similar stocks listed on developed world stock markets to examine the relationship between liquidity, earnings multiples and market capitalisations for these stocks. Interestingly, results show that, while there is no relationship between the liquidity of stocks and the Price Earnings (PE) multiples of stocks, there is strong evidence to suggest that a relationship exists between the liquidity of stocks and the Enterprise Value to EBITDA (EV/EBITDA) multiples of stocks. Furthermore, we find strong evidence that African frontier market stocks are significantly less liquid and have lower earnings multiples than stocks with similar market capitalisations listed on stock exchanges in the developed world.Item Foreign exchange risk and the flow of international portfolio capital: evidence from Africa's capital markets(2012-03-14) Kodongo, Christopher OdongoThis dissertation addresses two major issues. First, it investigates whether currency risk commands a significant premium in representative equity markets in Africa. The International Arbitrage Pricing Theory and the Stochastic Discount Factor model respectively provide the analytical frameworks for the unconditional and the conditional asset pricing models used to investigate currency risk pricing. Empirical data analysis uses the Generalized Method of Moments estimation technique. Second, it examines the nexus between real foreign exchange rates and net international portfolio flows in representative capital markets in Africa. Time series and panel data techniques are employed to this end. The study covers seven major African countries: Botswana, Egypt, Ghana, Kenya, Morocco, Nigeria, and South Africa over the period January 1997 through December 2009. Foreign exchange risk is found to be non-priced unconditionally when returns are measured in the US dollar; weakly priced unconditionally when returns are measured in the euro; and priced with time-varying risk premia in the conditional sense. Africa’s equity markets are found to be partially integrated with the rest of the world. Monthly international portfolio flows to Africa are found to be low, non-persistent and relatively volatile. Using monthly data, Granger causality tests and innovation accounting from vector autoregressions (VARs), the study shows that the dynamic relationship between the real exchange rates and net portfolio flows is both country-dependent and time-varying. The findings are robust to alternative VAR specifications. However, annual data exhibit strong causality moving from real exchange rates to net portfolio flows, suggesting that fluctuations in real exchange rates inform the investment decisions of foreign investors in Africa’s capital markets. Among the key policy implications, it is recommended that, in addition to the US dollar and precious metals, Africa’s monetary authorities should regard the euro as an important reserve currency; that policies be put in place to expedite the development of private fixed income securities and derivatives markets; that sound monetary policies be instituted to ensure that interest rate changes are market-determined and inflationary pressures are well-managed; and that regional markets integration and financial sector development policies be pursued more meticulously by governments in Africa.