3. Electronic Theses and Dissertations (ETDs) - All submissions
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Item The sensitivity of bank credit risk indicators to macroeconomic variables(2016) Thwala, Cyprian McwayizeniThis study uses a dynamic panel data method to examine the sensitivity of non-performing loans (NPLs) and bank capital buffer (BCB) to macroeconomic variables. This approach is motivated by the hypothesis that says macroeconomic variables have an effect on the bank’s balance sheet, and this effect varies across developed and emerging economies. The results show that NPLs are sensitive to GDP growth, interest rate, public debt, sovereign debt and unemployment in developed economies. However, NPLs are sensitive to GDP growth, exchange rate, interest rate, sovereign debt, unemployment and volume of imports in emerging economies. Public debt is not statistically significant in explaining the sensitivity of NPLs in emerging economies. Similarly, exchange rate and volume of imports have no significant influence on NPLs in developed economies. In relation to the BCB we find GDP growth, exchange rate, interest rate, sovereign debt, unemployment and volume of imports as significant macroeconomic variables driving the sensitivity of capital buffer in emerging economies. Conversely, interest rate, sovereign debt and unemployment are macroeconomic variables responsible for the sensitivity of the buffer in developed economies. GDP growth, exchange rate and volume of imports have no significant influence. Considering the liquidity risk imposed to the banks’ balance sheet by this set of macroeconomic variables. It seems plausible that their dynamics should be given attention when conceiving any policy mix to cope with credit expansion. Without such exercise, the goal of financial stability in the global banking system will be difficult to achieve.Item Bank loans, bonds, and information monopolies across the business cycle: test of the South African market(2013-06-04) Nkambule, Mbongiseni ThokozaniCorporate finance theory suggests that bank’s private information about borrowers lets them hold up borrowers for higher interest rates and that hold up power should increase with borrower risk, and if so, banks with private information about borrowers should increase their rates in recessions more than warranted by borrower risk alone. Studies have been concluded in other markets for these propositions, particularly for the US market. This paper has replicated these studies for an emerging economy (Republic of South Africa) to see if the findings will hold across dissimilar markets. Hold up cost is not just a function of information monopoly, Rajan, 1992 posits that firms with a higher probability of failure should suffer more from informational hold-up cost. The risk of failure is more pronounced during recession than in expansion and hence relationship banks with information monopolies are able to extract more rents in recession than warranted by borrower default risk alone. Using literature that suggest that information rents can be mitigated by multiple banking relationships, I investigated further, whether this problem of hold up cost can be mitigated through a different channel by studying credit spreads of firms that have publicly sourced funds, and continued to seek private funds in the South African market.Using LOANSPREAD as the dependent variable in a regression model, I find that loan spreads are higher for bank-dependent firms, rise in recessions and rise by a greater amount in recessions for bankdependent firms. In the context of this study I define bank-dependent firms as those firms who have issued no public bond. The key finding is that, indeed multiple banking relationships can reduce informational monopolies, but issuing public bonds can be another channel that South African firms can use to avoid being taken advantage of by financiers with information monopoly over competing financiers.Item Bank disintermediation: South Africa(2012-06-29) Chetty, KubandranThe conventional theory of financial intermediation suggests that banks are the main conduit between savers and borrowers however, research has shown that international banks are losing importance in intermediating i.e. mobilise savings and allocating these funds among competing borrowers - this international reality is due to a number of reasons including changes in regulation, growth in capital markets, non-bank financial intermediaries, foreign competition etc. South Africa has a highly concentrated banking sector with the five largest banks holding more than 90% of the industry’s assets however growth in non-bank financial intermediaries are threatening the intermediary role and profitability of banks - this research serves to investigate whether bank disintermediation is occurring in the South African context and whether the traditional role of banks is declining.