Southern Centre for Inequality Studies (SCIS) - (Working papers)

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    Budget 2025 Preview: Pressures and tensions along the austerity road to fiscal sustainability
    (Southern Centre for Inequality Studies, 2025-02) Sachs, Michael; Amra, Rashaad; Madonko, Thokozile; Willcox, Owen
    This policy brief, ahead of the tabling of the 2025 Budget Review, considers the policy context and the fiscal and economic environment in which the Budget will be tabled. It considers the merits, limitations, and likely consequences of the government’s approach to budget policy over the medium term, as contained in the 2024 Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS), which redoubled efforts to consolidate public finances while attempting to promote capital spending. Since the MTBPS, several material expenditure pressures have emerged, some of which were flagged in the Public Economy Project’s (PEP) 2024 MTBPS analysis, and the economic outlook has been revised. Based on this, the Public Economy Project’s revised outlook for public finance finds that the government’s ambitious plan to stabilise debt over the medium term is unlikely to be realised.
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    The Effects of Public Investment in the Green and Care Economies and Public Infrastructure in South Africa
    (2024) Onaran, Ozlem; Oyvat, Cem
    This paper argues that a comprehensive mix of policy tools is essential to catalyse the urgent public investment required to address South Africa's growth, inequality, care, and climate change crises. According to the National Treasury, from 2010 to 2019, South Africa's growth averaged only 1.75% annually, a figure further reduced when factoring in the COVID-19-impacted years of 2020 and 2021. Fiscal policy involves decisions regarding government spending levels, tax revenue generation, and borrowing. Since 2013, a fiscal consolidation strategy has been in place to curb public spending growth, resulting in decreased expenditures on public services due to rising debt service costs. This paper argues that increasing public spending on the care economy, green economy, and public infrastructure would boost GDP and employment, thereby altering public debt/GDP ratios. It advocates expansionary fiscal policies, clear development targets, and coordinated fiscal, monetary, industrial, labour, and social policies.
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    Macro Fiscal Review: Reflections on public finances ahead of the 2024 Budget Review
    (Southern Centre for Inequality Studies (SCIS), 2024-02) Amra, Rashaad; Sachs, Michael; Willcox, Owen; Madonko, Thokozile
    This policy note, published before the 2024 Budget Review tabling, reviews global and domestic economic developments and fiscal developments since the 2023 Budget Review and Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS) were tabled. It considers the implications of these developments for public finances and the realisation of the state’s socioeconomic goals. This note discusses emerging expenditure pressures observed in the recent period, which would warrant government to consider in its formulation of the upcoming budget. It assesses government’s key fiscal projections presented in the 2023 MTBPS and Budget Review. And it presents the Public Economy Project’s own updated outlook for public finances – it incorporates updated economic and fiscal data, and adjusted expenditure assumptions. It further discusses the limitations of government’s current approach to fiscal policy, and presents possible adjustments that would allow for a more equitable and sustainable path for public finances.
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    The Role Of Fiscal Think Tanks in Fiscal Policy: Global patterns and lessons for South Africa
    (Southern Centre for Inequality Studies (SCIS), 2024) Krause, Philipp
    This paper looks at fiscal policy more broadly through the institutions of policy-making rather than more narrowly through the institutions of budgeting. It considers who shares the fiscal policy space with the ministry of finance and how the fiscal policy agenda is set. Finance ministries may share the policy space with other bodies, independent or not, and yet retain a dominant role in how the budget is set. The paper discusses some important institutional differences that shape fiscal policy-making, and how those differences affect a think tank’s role. It then describes the most important types of fiscal think tanks that have emerged, with reference to some country examples, and makes some suggestions for implications in practice. It concludes with an outline of options for a fiscal think tank in South Africa.