ETD Collection

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    Effect of exchange rate volatility on capital flows in South Africa
    (2015) Ng'ambi, Muma
    e period 2000:q1 – 2014:q3 in South Africa. In addition, the paper examines the impact that the exchange rate volatility exerts on the different forms of capital flows. Consequently, the aim of the study is to examine whether the volatility in the exchange rate is a significant determinant of foreign investor capital into South African markets as well as to empirically establish the dynamic relationship that can be observed between capital flows and exchange rate volatility. A trade weighted exchange rate was constructed from which the conditional variance GARCH (1,1) model is applied to estimate exchange rate volatility. The findings from the multiple regression analysis reveal that exchange rate volatility has a statistically significant negative impact on the aggregated capital flows to South Africa. Using the bi-variate vector autoregressions (VARs), the Granger-causality test, impulse response and variance decomposition, the results show there is a dynamic interrelationship between exchange rate volatility and the aggregated and disaggregated capital flows. Furthermore, the VAR specifications results reveal that portfolio flows exhibits a strong bi-directional causality with exchange rate volatility as well as explaining a significant percentage of innovations in exchange rate volatility. This suggests that fluctuations in the exchange rate can be explained by portfolio flows into South Africa’s capital markets. The recommendations for authorities resulting from the findings include, a monetary policy that mitigates the rand exchange rate volatility in an effort to attenuate the adverse subduing effects it has on capital flows in South Africa. Further broadening financial instruments and derivatives available for investors to hedge against exchange rate volatility and a meticulous management of portfolio flows is imperative to ensure prevention of its destabilizing effect on the exchange rate.
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    An ARCH/GARCH arbitrage pricing theory approach to modelling the return generating process of South African stock returns.
    (2013-08-14) Szczygielski, Jan Jakub
    This study investigates the return generating process underlying the South African stock market. The investigation of the return generating process is framed within the Arbitrage Pricing Theory (APT) framework with the APT reinterpreted so as to provide a conceptual framework within which the return generating process can be investigated. In modelling the return generating process, the properties of South African stock returns are taken into consideration and an appropriate econometric framework in the form of Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedastic (ARCH) and Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedastic (GARCH) models is applied. Results indicate that the return generating process of South African stock returns is described by innovations in multiple risk factors representative of several risk categories. The multifactor model of the return generating process explains a substantial amount of variation in South African stock returns and the ARCH/GARCH methodology is an appropriate econometric framework for the estimation of models of the return generating process. The APT framework is successfully applied to model and investigate the return generating process of South African stock returns.