ETD Collection
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Item Assessing whether rehabilitation programmes from South African mining companies have considered the impacts of climate change(2016-09-16) Ndlovu, Zniko SiphokaziThe fifth report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has a high confidence level that positive radiative forcing due to anthropogenic influences are causing a warming earth surface, and the largest contributor is CO2. Previous research related to mining and climate change, has been inclined to the development of mitigation measures, further addressing how best the mining sector could reduce greenhouse gas emissions which adversely affect the climate system. Minimal research has focused on adaptation measures. The climate - both present and future - is seen as the most vital determinant of rehabilitation success or failure, specifically rainfall patterns and the temperature. Planning for rehabilitation while taking into account climate change, is the first step to enhancing adaptation, allowing successful and resilient rehabilitation. This study aimed to assess whether mining companies operating in South Africa have considered the impacts of climate change on mine rehabilitation. The study achieved this with the use of a qualitative research methodology which included detailed content analysis of documents and transcripts from interviews conducted. From graphical representations of likely future scenarios of climate change, it was identified that all mining companies will be exposed to climate change, thus increasing their vulnerability to future impacts. Secondly, it was identified that only three of the investigated policies and guidelines on closure make a specific mention to climate during the rehabilitation process (MMSD, ITRC and CoM). Through the analysis of Sustainability Reports, it became apparent that climate change issues are prioritised in the selected companies; however, these predominantly transpire as mitigation measures (i.e. energy consumption, GHG emissions and water availability) in response to legal requirements already instituted as well as forthcoming legal frameworks. Only two of the investigated companies have considered climate change during the rehabilitation process of the mine lifecycle. Additionally, the interview process revealed further that climate change is being considered, during the operational phase of the mine lifecycle and the responses are mitigation measures to comply with the legal frameworks. Lastly, from the identified case studies which show how physical climate change impacts can be addressed, an identified trend showed informed decision making by interdisciplinary individuals using credible regional data contributed to some successes. A total of six challenges were identified where after these were seen as strategic components to further catalyse adaptation planning in mine rehabilitation (data sources and management systems, legal framework, collaborations, research and development, funding and sustainability leadership). The findings of this research have created a foundation on which other research, addressing climate change within the South African mining industry, can progress which may further explore the mining company perspective or alternatively the government perspective which was not dealt with thoroughly in this study.Item Exploring the value of tourism climate indices for 18 locations in South Africa(2016) Robinson, Dean ConnorThe tourism climate index (TCI) provides information on the levels of comfort for tourism activity based on the climate of a destination. This index has been widely used to quantify the impacts of climate change on tourism at a diversity of destinations. The index is calculated based on the monthly averages of seven variables. To apply this index in South Africa, meteorological datasets of each variable were obtained from the South African Weather Service for 18 locations across South Africa. Each location is climatically distinct and relies on the tourism sector to generate social and economic development within the region. The 18 study sites, are influenced by differences in elevation, the Benguela and Agulhas currents, found along the west and east coast of the country respectively, and by the temporal scale at which summer and winter rainfall occurs across the country. Various data limitations resulted in the need for an adapted tourism climate model in order to calculate the climate suitability of all the chosen locations. The annual mean TCI scores for the period 2005-2014, reveal excellent to ideal climate suitability for tourism at the majority of the locations, with TCI scores ranging between 80.20 and 93.00. However, for the same period, East London, Port Nolloth and Belfast have annual average TCI scores between 74.88 and 79.20, which indicates that their climate suitability is considered to be very good. During the period 2005-2014, the majority of the locations experienced an increase in their climate suitability for tourism. Mean Monthly TCI scores indicate seasonal variations in the climate suitability of destinations across the country. These results suggest that Durban and St Lucia have the most favourable climate conditions for tourism during winter; while Cape Town, Paarl, Port Elizabeth, East London, Port Nolloth and Knysna have the most favourable climate conditions for tourism during summer; and Bethlehem, Bloemfontein, Johannesburg, Kimberley, Ladysmith, Nelspruit, Pilanesberg, Pretoria, Polokwane, and Belfast have the best climatic conditions for tourism during spring and autumn. The difference in average TCI scores across the country and the rate at which these TCI scores change over temporal scales highlights the need for constant monitoring of the climate suitability in these regions, particularly because they are reliant on the tourism sector. Rainfall and average thermal comfort had the most negative influence on the annual mean TCI scores, whilst daytime thermal comfort had the most positive influence on the same TCI scores. Tourism academics and researchers in South Africa were interviewed and they perceive climate change to be a social issue that will only impact the South African tourism sector in the future. The perceptions of the tourism academics and researchers are important as they are often the first people to engage with information pertaining to issues about tourism in South Africa. Although none of the respondents could provide a clear indication of when they perceive climate change to have an impact on the South African tourism sector, the majority of them believe that that TCI can be used as a tool to quantify the impacts of climate change on the tourism sector. This would improve the capacity of tourism stakeholders to adapt to the resultant impacts. However, most of the tourism academics and researchers clearly stipulated that the TCI should be used in conjunction with current climate change and tourism research in the countryItem Living with climate variability and change: lessons from Tanzania(2015-05-25) Pauline, Noah MakulaThere is sufficient evidence supporting that climate change and variability are pervasive realities that are strongly impacting on smallholder farmers in the Great Ruaha River sub-Basin of Tanzania. This PhD study examines smallholder farmers’ vulnerability, coping and adaptation strategies to climate change and variability (including non-climatic stresses), and investigates how such coping and adaptation may be constrained or enhanced given climate variability and change. Both quantitative and qualitative data collection methods were used when engaging with smallholder farmers and government officials. Primary data collection was undertaken in two phases, with phase one using participatory tools (e.g. focus group discussions, wealth ranking, community mapping and transect walk, and historical time lines). Data collected include climatic and non-climatic extreme events, farmers’ perceptions, coping and adaptation strategies. Phase two involved detailed individual interviews (questionnaire surveys) and key informant interviews (case studies), so as to obtain in-depth information on issues of interest. Secondary data were collected from existing statistical sources, literature surveys in archives, libraries and documentation centres, and from governmental agencies (e.g. TMA). Demographic, agricultural production and livestock statistics, and rainfall and temperature records were collected. Results from selected meteorological stations and farmers’ perceptions (74%) indicate that there has been an increase in average maximum temperatures, and both dry and wet years with varying magnitudes during the past four decades. Other climatic stresses include delayed onset and later cessation of the rain seasons. The agreement between farmers’ perceptions and rainfall trends provides good evidence that the climate has become increasingly variable in the GRRB during the past four decades. Achieving sustainable livelihoods is further compounded by non-climatic stresses such as access to markets and coordinating institutions. Results indicate that vulnerability is a complex phenomenon that entails two approaches (end-point and starting-point perspectives). The end-point perspective views vulnerability as the net projected climate change impacts after adaptation has taken place, whilst the starting-point perspective looks at both the current and future multiple stresses and places much emphasis in improving the adaptive capacity. In the study villages, such a nuanced picture highlighted areas for enhanced adaptation strategies. Farmers respond by using various strategies to deal with droughts, floods and other stresses when they occur. During droughts, they mostly use irrigation (canal, pumping and cans), or plant short-term maturing crops. During food shortages, farmers use strategies such as buying food, borrowing money, temporary migration, working in other people’s farms for cash, and reducing consumption. Moreover, the farmers’ choice of adaptation and coping strategies is influenced by factors such as location, access to resources, education levels and institutions. This calls for a whole system approach, which entails defining vulnerability of smallholder farmers to climatic and non-climatic stresses and thus designing appropriate response strategies. For example, mainstreaming adaptation to such stresses when considering development plans, projects, programmes and policies at all scales.Item The geology, sedimentology, geochronology and palaeo-environmental reconstruction of the Heelbo hillslope deposit, Free State Province, South Africa(2016-01-22) Evans, Mary YvonneA multidisciplinary sedimentological, stratigraphic, mineralogical and geochronological analysis of a small, fossil-bearing, Holocene hillslope deposit, flanking a mesa, has enabled a reconstruction of the palaeo-environmental history of the region. The hillslope deposit, located on the farm Heelbo in the eastern Free State Povince, South Africa, overlies Jurassic mudrock and sandstone of the Elliot Formation, Karoo Supergroup. The deposit is located on a steep (~10°) slope and covers an area of ~7 km2 in two separate sections. It extends ~475 m downslope and reaches a maximum thickness of at least 6-8 m towards the base. Mineralogy indicates the deposit is sourced from the mesa but its fine grain size and location on a steep slope position Heelbo outside the scope of traditionally described alluvial fans or colluvial deposits. The hillslope deposit is described as an alluvial slope based on the morphology of the deposit and the grain size distribution against the slope gradient. The deposit comprises fine-sand to silt- grain size, but is found on a steep (~10°) slope. The source of the sediment is shown to be the sediment of the mesa, rather than input from an aeolian source. The grains are described as sub-angular and poorly sorted which also suggests a local provenance for the sediment. Microscopic and XRF analysis confirm the derivation of the sediment from the Elliot Formation, with the lithic fragments derived from subarkoses to arkoses of the underlying bedrock of the Upper Elliot Formation (UEF) in the Karoo Supergroup. Secondary calcite was visible in only two of the thin sections, thus it is likely due to a diagenetic overprint that is constrained by depth from the surface or time and not to specific layers. The deposit is cut by several mature and continuous gully networks with V-shaped profiles in the proximal slope, and combined V- and U-shaped profiles in the medial and distal sections. Gully formation is linked to both the sodium adsorption ratio (SARs), and high soil clay content, which facilitates swelling and shrinking. The Heelbo deposit comprises two palaeosols (BT1 and BT2) and four sediment (B1, B2, RB and TS) horizons. Through luminescence dating, the ages were found to be approximately 6390 ± 740 years BP for the oldest Brown (B1) horizon and 250 ± 170 years BP for the Red Brown (RB) horizon. The radiocarbon ages of the sediment were inconclusive, but the 14C ages of the fossil bones were in agreement with the luminescence ages. The multiple palaeosol horizons identified suggest two cycles of deposition, pedogenesis and erosion of the alluvial succession. The palaeosols and the presence of calcareous nodules and rhizocretions, and smectite and mixed-layer clay minerals, together with the total absence of illite and kaolinite, suggest protracted, dry periods with intermittent short periods of high rainfall. This is a similar climate regime to what the region experiences currently. Main findings: The Heelbo alluvial slope comprises locally derived sediment, rather than an aeolian source. Heelbo suggests that the hillslope deposits classification system needs to be re-evaluated and opens opportunities for wider study of Pleistocene-Holocene hillslope deposits in central / northern South Africa. This study also contributes to climate change debates in the Holocene.Item Towards a multi-proxy holocene palaeoenvironmental and palaeoclimatic reconstruction for Eastern Lesotho(2016-01-20) Fitchett, Jennifer MyfanwyThe eastern Lesotho highlands observe climate patterns distinct from adjacent lower altitude regions, representing a niche environment with unique biodiversity, comprising well-adapted but restricted biomes. With a heavy reliance on subsistence agriculture, Lesotho faces risks to both the economy and individual livelihoods, should current rates of climate change persist or intensify. Furthermore, eastern Lesotho serves as southern Africa’s primary water catchment, with precipitation exceeding evaporation. Any changes in the climate and hydrological systems, as are likely under climate change scenarios, would compromise biomes, livelihoods, and water security both locally and regionally. Climate change research in eastern Lesotho, is thus of particular value, yet meteorological data are sparse and the palaeoenvironmental history remains poorly resolved. This research presents the first multi-proxy Holocene palaeoenvironmental and palaeoclimatic reconstruction for eastern Lesotho. This reconstruction is developed from the results from pollen, diatom and sediment analyses, extracted from sediment cores obtained from two peat bogs at Sani Valley (~2,800 m.asl) and Mafadi Wetland (~3,390 m.asl), and from an exposed gully-sidewall profile at Sekhokong (~2,950 m.asl), approximately 1km south of the Sani Valley site. The reconstructions are temporally constrained by AMS radiocarbon dates obtained for all three sites. Mafadi Wetland demonstrates marked differences to the lower altitude sites, including slower sedimentation rates, a decrease in pollen and diatom taxa diversity, and an increase in the relative abundance of ice-tolerant diatom taxa. The microtopography of the three sites influences the rates of sedimentation, sediment properties, pollen composition, and distinct palaeoenvironmental and palaeoclimatic reconstructions for each site. The Sekhokong record commences in the late Pleistocene, with a wet period from ~13,180-10,850 cal. yr BP, interrupted by a dry period from ~13,080-12,830 cal. yr BP. From ~10,550-6,420 cal. yr BP, the Sekhokong record indicates a drier climate with a slow transition to warmer, wetter conditions. The Mafadi Wetland record commences with cold, wet conditions from ~8,140-7,580 cal. yr BP, followed by a warmer, drier period from ~7,520-6,680 cal. yr BP. Thereafter, greater microclimatic differences are apparent. For Sekhokong, warmer, dry conditions are inferred for ~6,420-6,000 cal. yr BP, followed by cold, wet conditions from ~6,000-5,450 cal. yr BP. Warmer, dry conditions commence earlier at Mafadi Wetland, from ~6,160-5,700 cal. yr BP, coinciding with the initiation of a longer wet period at Sani Valley, from ~6,200-4,900 cal. yr BP. At Sekhokong, a dry, warmer period follows from ~5,450-3,700 cal. yr BP. At Sani Valley, drier conditions are evident from ~4,770-4,470 cal. yr BP, followed by a cold, wet period from ~4,460-2,260 cal. yr BP. For Mafadi Wetland, these cold, wet conditions endure longer, from ~5,600-1,100 cal. yr BP. This overlaps with similarly cool, wet conditions at Sekhokong, from ~3,650- 1,200 cal. yr BP. By contrast, dry conditions are evident at Sani Valley, from ~2,260-1,350 cal. yr BP. For all three sites, ~1,000 cal. yr BP to present is characterised by progressive drying, with discrete wet events. Pronounced cold events are detected at ~12,660 cal. yr BP, ~8,400-8,000 cal. yr BP and ~150 cal. yr BP. The results of this study indicate similarities with records from adjacent studies in western Lesotho and South Africa, although with notable variability in the timing of events. The palaeoenvironmental reconstructions for eastern Lesotho, and their comparison with existing studies, provide valuable information to improve the understanding of southern African Holocene climates, and to facilitate the development of high resolution, accurate climate models for the eastern Lesotho region.Item Using remote sensing to explore the role of ambient temperature in determining gemsbok (Oryx gazella) usage of a heterogeneous landscape in the central Kalahari(2016-01-20) Tromp, Leon RocherThe central Kalahari is likely to become hotter and drier as a result of climate change in the region. These changes may result in behavioural changes in Gemsbok due to temperature induced stress, in spite of physiological and behavioural adaptations, and are likely to manifest in a preference for particular landscape patch classes. Recent Landsat 8 satellite imagery and classification analysis were used to map landscape patch classes in a heterogeneous landscape in the central Kalahari. The classification map of the research area identified 6 classes of landscape patches used by Gemsbok. Eight collared Gemsbok were tracked by satellite to monitor their movement in their respective home ranges over a period of 9 months. Gemsbok locations were plotted on to the classification map, and location frequency distributions were produced for each landscape patch class. Gemsbok home ranges were calculated using minimum convex polygon geometry, and the available patch class areas within each home range were analysed against the usage patterns of each animal. The analysis showed less preference for shade producing classes and more preference for open classes. Exploration of the role of temperature in landscape patch selection showed that temperature is a weak predictor of patch class, that critical temperature thresholds have not yet been reached, and that Gemsbok preference for pans is more likely related to seasonally available forage and reduced predation risk in a “landscape of fear” (Laundré, Hernández, & Altendorf, 2001).Item Assessing species' vulnerability to climate change(2015-05-06) Foden, Wendy BernardinaClimate change (CC) is expected to have profound impacts on biodiversity, but predicting these remains a major scientific challenge. Current approaches to quantifying such impacts focus largely on measuring exposure to CC, ignoring the biological traits that may significantly increase or reduce species’ vulnerability. In addition, their input requirements restrict use to wide-spread and better-studied species, creating taxonomic and geographic biases in global CC vulnerability estimates. To address this, I developed a framework which draws on both biological traits and exposure modelling to assess three dimensions of CC, namely exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity. In the first fully-representative study of entire taxonomic groups, my collaborators and I applied this framework to each of the world’s birds, amphibians and corals (16,857 species). Results identify the Amazon as an area of high concentration of CC vulnerable birds and amphibians, and the central Indo-west Pacific (Coral Triangle) for corals. Comparisons with species’ IUCN Red List threat statuses reveal species and regions both of new and greatest overall priority for conservation globally.Item How is climate change incorporated into environmental impact assessments (EIAs) in South Africa?(2015-01-30) Aljareo, AbdulhakimClimate change is an issue of global significance resulting in trans-boundary environmental and socio-economic impacts. South Africa is involved in the international efforts to address climate change, has accepted the findings of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Assessment Report and developed a National Climate Change Response Policy, listing the impacts of climate change on the sustainable development in South Africa. The main causes of climate change are Greenhouse Gases (GHGs), which have been emitted from different development activities over temporal and spatial scales. In order to reduce the emissions of GHGs and protect proposed development projects from climate change impacts, climate change mitigation and adaptation measures should be incorporated into Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA). This research aimed to describe climate change incorporation into the EIA legal regime and practice in South Africa, based on climate change impacts on sustainable development and the role of EIA in considering climate change. The methodology involved reviewing EIA regulations and related legislation, EIA case studies from Gauteng province conducted between 2010 and 2013, key informant interviews with Environmental Assessment Practitioners (EAPs), and discussion on the linkedin group of the International Association for Impact Assessment of South Africa (IAIAsa). The study concluded that climate change is not explicitly incorporated into the EIA regime, but it is implied in the EIA regulations and related legislation. Largely as a result of the lack of climate change incorporation in the EIA legal regime, climate change is not adequately considered in the EIA practice. In order to support the contribution of EIA to sustainable development in South Africa, It is recommended that climate change should be incorporated into EIA regulations in the next amendment of NEMA. This can be done through including listed activities that require climate change incorporation into the EIA based on type of an activity and/or specific receiving environments. It is also suggested that EIA guidelines for climate change consideration be developed. Further recommendations include supporting the role that Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) and Environmental Management Framework (EMF) play, in conjunction with the EIA, in considering climate change; increasing the availability of accurate, local climate change data and modelling technology; developing staff capacity and awareness about climate change, and building EAP’s ability to incorporate climate change in the EIA through the support of government related authorities and associations such as IAIAsa and EAPSA. Key words: climate change, EIA, mitigation, adaptation, EIA legal regime, EIA practice.Item FET geography teachers` knowledge and perceptions of climate change and an evaluation of the textbooks used for climate change education.(2014-03-04) Vujovic, Jessica Olivia SajaClimate change education, at both primary and secondary school levels, has been recognised as a key approach through which to enhance the knowledge and understanding of climate change among learners. The success of climate change education is largely dependent on the resources through which learners acquire knowledge of climate change, namely teachers and textbooks. This two dimensional study investigates FET geography teachers’ knowledge and perceptions of climate change, and provides a critique of the geography textbooks used most frequently by these teachers in climate change education. To investigate teachers’ understandings of climate change, the study employed a qualitative non-experimental research design, which encompassed semi-structured interviews conducted with 32 geography teachers in Gauteng province, South Africa. A number of key inconsistencies, misconceptions and gaps were found to exist in teachers’ knowledge and perceptions of climate change. The value of the nine FET level geography textbooks for climate change education was assessed, and critiqued using a classification process based on criteria developed by the researcher. This assessment revealed a number of shortfalls in the textbooks’ provision of relevant, accessible and accurate information on climate change. It is important that these flaws and shortfalls in both teachers’ knowledge and textbooks representations of climate change are rectified as they are likely to have implications for the ultimate success of climate change education in schools.Item Spatial and temporal changes of greenness metrics in Kruger National Park from 2000-2010(2013-05-08) Mushamiri, MemoryUnable to load abstract.