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Author: search.filters.author.Nyika, Patrick. H.Subject: search.filters.subject.Economic policy

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    Monetary policy and stock market liquidity: empirical evidence from the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE)
    (2018) Nyika, Patrick. H.
    e recent financial crisis has given liquidity an important role in the financial market functioning. Especially in small size equity markets like the African, lack of liquidity has been reported as major issue. In order to source the causes of the lack of liquidity, this study investigated the relationship between monetary policy and stock market liquidity in South Africa using fixed and random effect estimations for stock specific effect and VAR impulse response function for portfolio analysis. We first estimate a Taylor rule for South Africa, which we augment with a financial indicator adapted from the literature and use the difference between actual and fitted values to measure monetary stance. The literature on the monetary policy rules in South Africa revealed M3 as the instrument used by the SARB before the period of inflation targeting that started in February 2000. We then used the monetary stance computed from the Taylor rule and the growth rate of M3 as measures of monetary policy. The panel regression analysis, with monetary policy measured by the growth rate of money supply, is only significant in the case of illiquidity models while monetary policy shows no effect on liquidity models in that case. In the case of monetary policy as measured by Taylor rule, the turnover model revealed a negative relationship, but weakly significant. Further, a positive and significant effect at 5% and 10% was revealed for Amihud’s illiquidity measure and Roll’s price impact measure. The impulse response analysis shows different results as compared to the stock specific analysis. The study found that monetary policy, as measured by money supply, has a positive effect on the liquidity variables which are turnover and trading volume; and also found that the monetary policy, as measured by the Taylor monetary stance, has a positive effect on illiquidity variables.