Browsing by Author "James A Berkley"

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    Anthropometric criteria for best-identifying children at high risk of mortality: a pooled analysis of twelve cohorts
    (2023-02-03) Tanya Khara; Mark Myatt; Kate Sadler; Paluku Bahwere; James A Berkley; James A Berkley; Robert E Black; Erin Boyd; Michel Garenne; Sheila Isanaka; Natasha Lelijveld; Christine McDonald; Andrew Mertens; Martha Mwangome; Kieran O’Brien; Heather Stobaugh; Sunita Taneja; Keith P West; André Briend
    Objective: To understand which anthropometric diagnostic criteria best discriminate higher from lower risk of death in children and explore programme implications. Design: A multiple cohort individual data meta-analysis of mortality risk (within 6 months of measurement) by anthropometric case definitions. Sensitivity, specificity, informedness and inclusivity in predicting mortality, face validity and compatibility with current standards and practice were assessed and operational consequences were modelled. Setting: Community-based cohort studies in twelve low-income countries between 1977 and 2013 in settings where treatment of wasting was not widespread. Participants: Children aged 6 to 59 months. Results: Of the twelve anthropometric case definitions examined, four (weight-forage Z-score (WAZ) <−2), (mid-upper arm circumference (MUAC) <125 mm), (MUAC < 115 mm or WAZ < −3) and (WAZ < −3) had the highest informedness in predicting mortality. A combined case definition (MUAC < 115 mm or WAZ < −3) was better at predicting deaths associated with weight-for-height Z-score <−3 and concurrent wasting and stunting (WaSt) than the single WAZ < −3 case definition. After the assessment of all criteria, the combined case definition performed best. The simulated workload for programmes admitting based on MUAC < 115 mm or WAZ < −3, when adjusted with a proxy for required intensity and/or duration of treatment, was 1·87 times larger than programmes admitting on MUAC < 115 mm alone. Conclusions: A combined case definition detects nearly all deaths associated with severe anthropometric deficits suggesting that therapeutic feeding programmes may achieve higher impact (prevent mortality and improve coverage) by using it. There remain operational questions to examine further before wide-scale adoption can be recommended.
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    Association between fetal abdominal growth trajectories, maternal metabolite signatures early in pregnancy, and childhood growth and adiposity: prospective observational multinational INTERBIO-21st fetal study
    (2022-08-20) Jose Villar; Roseline Ochieng; Robert B Gunier; Aris T Papageorghiou; Stephen Rauch; Rose McGready; Julia M Gauglitz; Fernando C Barros; Manu Vatish; Michelle Fernandes; Victor Zammit; Verena I Carrara; Shama Munim; Rachel Craik; Hellen C Barsosio; Maria Carvalho; James A Berkley; Leila I Cheikh Ismail; Shane A Norris; Chrystelle O O Tshivuila-Matala; Francois Nosten; Eric O Ohuma; Alan Stein; Ann Lambert; Adele Winsey; Ricardo Uauy; Brenda Eskenazi; Zulfiqar A Bhutta; Stephen H Kennedy
    Background: Obesity predominantly affects populations in high-income countries and those countries facing epidemiological transition. The risk of childhood obesity is increased among infants who had overweight or obesity at birth, but in low-resource settings one in five infants are born small for gestational age. We aimed to study the relationships between: (1) maternal metabolite signatures; (2) fetal abdominal growth; and (3) postnatal growth, adiposity, and neurodevelopment. Methods: In the prospective, multinational, observational INTERBIO-21st fetal study, conducted in maternity units in Pelotas (Brazil), Nairobi (Kenya), Karachi (Pakistan), Soweto (South Africa), Mae Sot (Thailand), and Oxford (UK), we enrolled women (≥18 years, with a BMI of less than 35 kg/m2, natural conception, and a singleton pregnancy) who initiated antenatal care before 14 weeks' gestation. Ultrasound scans were performed every 5±1 weeks until delivery to measure fetal growth and feto-placental blood flow, and we used finite mixture models to derive growth trajectories of abdominal circumference. The infants' health, growth, and development were monitored from birth to age 2 years. Early pregnancy maternal blood and umbilical cord venous blood samples were collected for untargeted metabolomic analysis. Findings: From Feb 8, 2012, to Nov 30, 2019, we enrolled 3598 pregnant women and followed up their infants to 2 years of age. We identified four ultrasound-derived trajectories of fetal abdominal circumference growth that accelerated or decelerated within a crucial 20-25 week gestational age window: faltering growth, early accelerating growth, late accelerating growth, and median growth tracking. These distinct phenotypes had matching feto-placental blood flow patterns throughout pregnancy, and different growth, adiposity, vision, and neurodevelopment outcomes in early childhood. There were 709 maternal metabolites with positive effect for the faltering growth phenotype and 54 for the early accelerating growth phenotype; 31 maternal metabolites had a negative effect for the faltering growth phenotype and 76 for the early accelerating growth phenotype. Metabolites associated with the faltering growth phenotype had statistically significant odds ratios close to 1·5 (ie, suggesting upregulation of metabolic pathways of impaired fetal growth). The metabolites had a reciprocal relationship with the early accelerating growth phenotype, with statistically significant odds ratios close to 0.6 (ie, suggesting downregulation of fetal growth acceleration). The maternal metabolite signatures included 5-hydroxy-eicosatetraenoic acid, and 11 phosphatidylcholines linked to oxylipin or saturated fatty acid sidechains. The fungicide, chlorothalonil, was highly abundant in the early accelerating growth phenotype group. Interpretation: Early pregnancy lipid biology associated with fetal abdominal growth trajectories is an indicator of patterns of growth, adiposity, vision, and neurodevelopment up to the age of 2 years. Our findings could contribute to the earlier identification of infants at risk of obesity.
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    Prognostic value of different anthropometric indices over different measurement intervals to predict mortality in 6–59-month-old children
    (2023-06) André Briend; Mark Myatt; James A Berkley; Robert E Black; Erin Boyd; Michel Garenne; Natasha Lelijveld; Sheila Isanaka; Christine M McDonald; Martha Mwangwome; Kieran S O’Brien; Catherine Schwinger; Heather Stobaugh; Sunita Taneja; Keith P West; Tanya Khara
    Objective: To compare the prognostic value of mid-upper arm circumference (MUAC), weight-for-height Z-score (WHZ) and weight-for-age Z-score (WAZ) for predicting death over periods of 1, 3 and 6 months follow-up in children. Design: Pooled analysis of twelve prospective studies examining survival after anthropometric assessment. Sensitivity and false-positive ratios to predict death within 1, 3 and 6 months were compared for three individual anthropometric indices and their combinations. Setting: Community-based, prospective studies from twelve countries in Africa and Asia. Participants: Children aged 6–59 months living in the study areas. Results: For all anthropometric indices, the receiver operating characteristic curves were higher for shorter than for longer durations of follow-up. Sensitivity was higher for death with 1-month follow-up compared with 6 months by 49 % (95 % CI (30, 69)) for MUAC < 115 mm (P < 0·001), 48 % (95 % CI (9·4, 87)) for WHZ < -3 (P < 0·01) and 28 % (95 % CI (7·6, 42)) for WAZ < -3 (P < 0·005). This was accompanied by an increase in false positives of only 3 % or less. For all durations of follow-up, WAZ < -3 identified more children who died and were not identified by WHZ < -3 or by MUAC < 115 mm, 120 mm or 125 mm, but the use of WAZ < -3 led to an increased false-positive ratio up to 16·4 % (95 % CI (12·0, 20·9)) compared with 3·5 % (95 % CI (0·4, 6·5)) for MUAC < 115 mm alone. Conclusions: Frequent anthropometric measurements significantly improve the identification of malnourished children with a high risk of death without markedly increasing false positives. Combining two indices increases sensitivity but also increases false positives among children meeting case definitions.