Impact of oil price shocks on stock returns: evidence from selected Southeast Asian economies
Date
2017
Authors
Siddiqui, Ammar Ahmed
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Abstract
This paper investigates the impact of oil price shocks on stock market returns in selected Southeast Asian countries. We selected five countries, those are Indonesia, Singapore, Malaysia Thailand and Philippine. We employ autoregressive distributed lag model (ARDL) and VECM model in the analysis. We model both positive oil price shock and negative oil price shock. We find that the real Brent price is positively correlated with all the stock markets in the selected countries. The results of ARDL model indicate that positive oil price shock exhibits a negative impact on the stock market returns while lag one negative oil price shock exhibits a positive impact on the stock market returns in the short run. However, only Indonesia and Singapore exhibit a significant response to positive and negative oil shocks in the ARDL model. The cointegration analysis indicates a long run causal relationship from oil price to stock market returns for Malaysia and Singapore. This result is confirmed by the error correction model with significant and negative but low speed of adjustment.
Description
A research report submitted to the Faculty of Commerce, Law and Management, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Mamagement