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Now showing 1 - 5 of 18

Recent Submissions

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Refining circumstances of mortality categories (COMCAT): a verbal autopsy model connecting circumstances of deaths with outcomes for public health decision-making
(2021-10-25) Lucia D’Ambruoso; Jessica Price; Eilidh Cowan; Gerhard Goosenf; Edward Fottrell; Kobus Herbst; Maria van der Merwe; Jerry Sigudla; Justine Davies; Kathleen Kahn
Background: Recognising that the causes of over half the world’s deaths pass unrecorded, the World Health Organization (WHO) leads development of Verbal Autopsy (VA): a method to understand causes of death in otherwise unregistered populations. Recently, VA has been developed for use outside research environments, supporting countries and communities to recognise and act on their own health priorities. We developed the Circumstances of Mortality Categories (COMCATs) system within VA to provide complementary circumstantial categorisations of deaths. Objectives: Refine the COMCAT system to (a) support large-scale population assessment and (b) inform public health decision-making. Methods: We analysed VA data for 7,980 deaths from two South African Health and SocioDemographic Surveillance Systems (HDSS) from 2012 to 2019: the Agincourt HDSS in Mpumalanga and the Africa Health Research Institute HDSS in KwaZulu-Natal. We assessed the COMCAT system’s reliability (consistency over time and similar conditions), validity (the extent to which COMCATs capture a sufficient range of key circumstances and events at and around time of death) and relevance (for public health decision-making). Results: Plausible results were reliably produced, with ‘emergencies’, ‘recognition, ‘accessing care’ and ‘perceived quality’ characterising the majority of avoidable deaths. We identified gaps and developed an additional COMCAT ‘referral’, which accounted for a significant proportion of deaths in sub-group analysis. To support decision-making, data that establish an impetus for action, that can be operationalised into interventions and that capture deaths outside facilities are important. Conclusions: COMCAT is a pragmatic, scalable approach enhancing functionality of VA providing basic information, not available from other sources, on care seeking and utilisation at and around time of death. Continued development with stakeholders in health systems, civil registration, community and research environments will further strengthen the tool to capture social and health systems drivers of avoidable deaths and promote use in practice settings.
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Prioritising and mapping barriers to achieve equitable surgical care in South Africa: a multi-disciplinary stakeholder workshop
(2022-12) Tamlyn Mac Quene; Luné Smith; Maria Lisa Odland; Susan Levine; Lucia D’Ambruoso; Justine Davies; Kathryn Chu
Background: Surgical healthcare in South Africa is inequitable with a considerable lack of resources in the public health sector. Identifying barriers to care and creating research priorities to mitigate these barriers can contribute to strategic interventions to improve equitable access to quality surgical care. Objective: To use the Four Delays Framework to map barriers to surgical care and identify priorities to achieve equitable and timely access to quality surgical care in South Africa. Methods: A multi-disciplinary stakeholder workshop was held in Cape Town, South Africa in January 2020. A Four Delays Framework (delays in seeking care, reaching care, receiving care, and remaining in care) was used to identify barriers that occur at each delay and the top 10 priorities for intervention. Barriers were categorised into overarching themes and schematically mapped. Results: Thirty-four stakeholders including health service users, health service providers, and community members participated in this exercise. In total, 34 barriers were identified with 73 connections to various delays. Specifically, 14 barriers were related to delays in seeking care, 11 were related to delays in reaching care, 20 were related to delays in receiving care, and 28 were related to delays in remaining in care. The highest priority barriers across the delays were Lack of service provider's knowledge, training and experience, and Limited surgical outreach. The barrier Lack of decentralised services was related to all four delays. Barriers were interconnected and potentially reinforcing. Conclusions: This workshop is the first of its kind to generate evidence on the delays to surgical care in South Africa. Mapping crucial interconnected, potentially reinforcing barriers, and priority interventions demonstrated how a multifaceted approach may be required to address delays to access. Further research focused on the identified priorities will contribute to efforts to promote equitable access to quality surgical care in South Africa.
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Maternal postnatal depression and offspring depression at age 24 years in a UK-birth cohort: the mediating role of maternal nurturing behaviours concerning feeding, crying and sleeping
(2022-10-19) Iryna Culpin; Gemma Hammerton; Marc H Bornstein; Jon Heron; Jonathan Evans; Tim Cadman; Hannah M Sallis; Kate Tilling; Alan Stein; Alex S F Kwong; Rebecca M Pearson
Background: Maternal postnatal depression (PND) is a risk factor for offspring depression in adulthood. However, few longitudinal studies have examined the role of maternal nurturing parenting behaviours in the association between maternal PND and offspring depression in adulthood. Methods: We examined pathways from maternal PND measured using self-reported Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale at 8 weeks to offspring ICD-10 depression diagnosed using the Clinical Interview Schedule-Revised computerised assessment at 24 years through maternal-reported nurturing behaviours concerning feeding, sleeping and crying measured from pregnancy to age 3 years 6 months in 5,881 members of the UK-based birth cohort study, the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children. Results: The fully adjusted model revealed an indirect effect from PND to adult offspring depression through the combination of all parenting factors (probit regression coefficient [ B]=0.038, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.005, 0.071); however, there was no evidence of a direct effect from early maternal PND to offspring depression once the indirect effect via parenting factors was accounted for ( B=0.009, 95%CI -0.075, 0.093). Specificity analyses revealed indirect effects through maternal worries about feeding ( B=0.019, 95%CI 0.003, 0.035, p=0.010) and maternal perceptions and responses to crying ( B=0.018, 95%CI 0.004, 0.032, p=0.012). Conclusions: The adverse impact of maternal PND on offspring depression in early adulthood was explained by maternal nurturing behaviours concerning feeding, crying and sleeping in early childhood. Residual confounding and measurement error likely limit reliable conclusions. If found causal, interventions providing support to reduce worries around maternal nurturing behaviours and treating depression could reduce adverse outcomes in adult offspring of depressed mothers.
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Cohort Profile: South African Population Research Infrastructure Network (SAPRIN)
(2021-12-30) Mark A Collinson; Taurayi Mudzana; Tinofa Mutevedzi; Kathleen Kahn; Eric Maimela; F Xavier Go´ mez-Olive´; Thobeka Mngomezulu; Dickman Gareta; Chodziwadziwa W Kabudula; Rathani Nemuramba; Joseph Tlouyamma; Stephen Tollman; Kobus Herbst
South Africa is striving to emerge from a legacy of gross social injustice and consequent health and socioeconomic inequality, to becoming a country where all residents have opportunities to build productive lives. However, recent declines in economic performance and unemployment, exacerbated by weaknesses in national and provincial level governance, coupled with colliding epidemics of HIV/ AIDS and non-communicable diseases, have left the country’s leadership with serious, seemingly intractable challenges. Moreover as with most countries, the effects of stringent sociobehavioural responses to the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), with serious economic consequences, serve to amplify such challenges.
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SARS-CoV-2 incidence, transmission and reinfection in a rural and an urban setting: results of the PHIRST-C cohort study, South Africa, 2020-2021
(2021-12-04) Cheryl Cohen; Jackie Kleynhans; Anne von Gottberg; Meredith L McMorrow; Nicole Wolter; Jinal N Bhiman; Jocelyn Moyes; Jacques du Toit; Mignon du Plessis; Francesc Xavier Gómez-Olivé; Fatimah S Dawood; Thulisa Mkhencele; Kaiyun Sun; Cécile Viboud; Maimuna Carrim; Amelia Buys; Neil A Martinson; Kathleen Kahn; Stephen Tollman; Limakatso Lebina; Floi Wafawanaka
Background: By August 2021, South Africa experienced three SARS-CoV-2 waves; the second and third associated with emergence of Beta and Delta variants respectively. Methods: We conducted a prospective cohort study during July 2020-August 2021 in one rural and one urban community. Mid-turbinate nasal swabs were collected twice-weekly from household members irrespective of symptoms and tested for SARS-CoV-2 using real-time reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (rRT-PCR). Serum was collected every two months and tested for anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies. Results: Among 115,759 nasal specimens from 1,200 members (follow-up rate 93%), 1976 (2%) were SARS-CoV-2-positive. By rRT-PCR and serology combined, 62% (749/1200) of individuals experienced ≥1 SARS-CoV-2 infection episode, and 12% (87/749) experienced reinfection. Of 662 PCR-confirmed episodes with available data, 15% (n=97) were associated with ≥1 symptom. Among 222 households, 200 (90%) had ≥1 SARS-CoV-2-positive individual. Household cumulative infection risk (HCIR) was 25% (213/856). On multivariable analysis, accounting for age and sex, index case lower cycle threshold value (OR 3.9, 95%CI 1.7-8.8), urban community (OR 2.0,95%CI 1.1-3.9), Beta (OR 4.2, 95%CI 1.7-10.1) and Delta (OR 14.6, 95%CI 5.7-37.5) variant infection were associated with increased HCIR. HCIR was similar for symptomatic (21/110, 19%) and asymptomatic (195/775, 25%) index cases (p=0.165). Attack rates were highest in individuals aged 13-18 years and individuals in this age group were more likely to experience repeat infections and to acquire SARS-CoV-2 infection. People living with HIV who were not virally supressed were more likely to develop symptomatic illness, and shed SARS-CoV-2 for longer compared to HIV-uninfected individuals. Conclusions: In this study, 85% of SARS-CoV-2 infections were asymptomatic and index case symptom status did not affect HCIR, suggesting a limited role for control measures targeting symptomatic individuals. Increased household transmission of Beta and Delta variants, likely contributed to successive waves, with >60% of individuals infected by the end of follow-up.