IMPACT OF HIV/AIDS ON ECONOMIC GROWTH IN RWANDA
Date
2011-05-05
Authors
KABALISA, Michel
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Abstract
Impact assessment is widely used in the field of socio-economic development. Socioeconomic
impact of HIV/AIDS has taken on similar cross-cutting studies mostly in poverty,
gender and environment disciplines by applying various quantitative techniques tools
including econometric modelling.
An extensive literature review was carried out and reveals, in many cases, a strong socioeconomic
impact of HIV/AIDS on the economic output in the long run.
Drawing on existing methodologies, two models are developed: Spectrum Policy modeler has
been applied to determine the HIV/AIDS epidemiologic impact. An econometric model that
integrates the determinants variables of the HIV/AIDS Epidemiology and the Gross Domestic
Product (GDP) and simulates different scenarios which represent a variety of HIV/AIDS levels
corresponding to hypothesised behaviours.
This econometric model demonstrates a limited impact of HIV/AIDS on GDP in the context of
extended use of antiretroviral therapy combined with a strong preventive policy which would
likely curb the HIV in short term to mid-term.
It also highlights the impact of other essential determinant factors on GDP, which are included
in the model that decision-makers should act upon in order to stimulate the economic growth
Description
MM - P&DM
Keywords
HIV/AIDS in Rwanda, Economic growth, Rwanda