Balancing the rise of China: United States policy in the South China Sea
Date
2014-10-20
Authors
Marincowitz, Kevin Thomas
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Abstract
The threat of a rising China to the U.S. led international system has resulted in the increase in
competition and tension between the two states. The disputed South China Sea (SCS) is one of the
theatres in which this developing competition takes place. Utilizing Offensive Realism theory as a
framework, the SCS is examined as a potential flashpoint for the escalation of an international
incident into conflict between the U.S. and China. The political/security context in which Sino-U.S.
relations occur is established through an analysis of the law of claims at sea and the disputes
claimants. The theoretical framework provides a means to interpret the actions of both China and
the U.S. in the context of a competition for power, by establishing the causes of war and the
strategies utilized by rising and status quo powers against each other. The conduct of China and the
U.S. both generally and regionally are then examined on three levels: national opinion, strategy and
tactics. The results of each level are then juxtaposed to determine their effect on tension and thus
the likelihood of conflict occurring. It is determined that the national opinion and strategy levels
have a net effect of decreasing tension, whilst the tactical level dramatically increases tension within
the region. The tension in the region is therefore moderated by the national opinion and strategy
levels, limiting the potential of an international incident acting as a flashpoint for conflict, but
ensuring the likelihood of a prolonged stalemate and the emergence of a new Cold War.
Description
Thesis (M.A.)--University of the Witwatersrand, Faculty of Humanities, 2013.