Estimating the incidence of acute HIV infection from a single cross-sectional sample
Date
2011-09-14
Authors
Akindolani, Omotola Omokunbi
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Abstract
The Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) epidemic is currently one of the greatest challenges and most important health issues in the world. South Africa has one of the fastest growing epidemics in the world therefore reliable estimates of prevalence and incidence are required for understanding the magnitude of the epidemic and improving the methods of prevention.
This study examines the estimation of HIV incidence from a cross-section of people, using one of the laboratory methods that discover recent HIV infection in blood samples. The incidence estimate is obtained at a single point in time, thereby saving time and cost expended in following a cohort over a period of time. It also examines incidence from pooled blood samples, and evaluates the assumptions of the different methods of estimating HIV incidence, comparing each of them; and checking the sensitivity of the estimates to the assumptions.
Results from the simulation study shows that accurate estimates of incidence can be obtained by pooling blood samples; and these estimates are obtained at a fraction of the cost of individual testing.
Description
MSc., Faculty of Science, School of Statistics and Actuarial Science, University of the Witwatersrand, 2011
Keywords
Human Immunodeficiency Virus