Simbanegavi, PriscaWeaich, MalcomMpofu, BekithembaMoobela, CletusLaryea, SamuelLi, BaizhanEssah, Emmanuel AduMensah, SarfoLiu, HongYao, Runming2024-10-062024-10-062024-07Mpofu, et al. (2024). The impact of inflation on house prices in South Africa: effects of COVID-19 In: Laryea, S. et al. (Eds) Proceedings of the WABER SuDBE Conference, 30 to 31 July 2024, Johannesburg, South Africa 1281-1295.978-0-7961-6032-4978-0-7961-6032-4 (e-book)https://hdl.handle.net/10539/41375This paper was presented at the Proceedings of the WABER SuDBE 2024 Conference, 30th – 31st July 2024, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa.This study investigates the impact of inflation on house prices in South Africa, with a particular focus on the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. The research aims to elucidate the nature of the relationship between inflation and housing, and to determine how the pandemic has influenced this dynamic. Utilising monthly data from January 2010 to April 2022, the study employs Johansen cointegration and Granger causality tests to assess long-term and causal relationships, respectively. The findings confirm a positive long-term relationship between house prices and inflation, indicating that housing serves as an effective hedge against inflation. However, the results also reveal structural breaks in this relationship, with significant changes observed during the COVID-19 period. The Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) highlights short-run adjustments and the speed of return to equilibrium. This study provides valuable insights for investors and policymakers, demonstrating the resilience of housing investments during economic disruptions and underscoring the importance of considering regional and temporal factors in real estate investment strategies.en©2024 University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg. All rights reserved. The copyright in this work vests in the University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg. No part of this work may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, without the prior written permission of University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg.© Copyright The copyright for papers in this publication belongs to the authors of the papers.Covid-19Granger causality testHouse pricesInflationJohansen cointegrationSouth AfricaSDG-11: Sustainable cities and communitiesConference ProceedingsUniversity of the Witwatersrand, JohannesburgWABER SuDBE Conference 20240009-0000-0015-7567