Ramos, Nicole Diana2013-05-152013-05-152013-05-15http://hdl.handle.net/10539/12726This paper develops a series of Early Warning System models for debt crises. This paper uses a Debt Pressure index to define crisis periods and then demonstrates how one can go about trying to forecast these periods using Logit and Markov-switching Models. An alternative approach, whereby ordinary least squares (OLS) is used to create Early Warning System models, is introduced. A graphical analysis is also conducted. Three useful Early Warning System models emerge from this study.enFinancial crisesDebtEconomic forecastingSouth AfricaThesis