Zwane, SibongileSchutte, DavidMaila, SueJones, RazaakLaryea, SamuelLi, BaizhanEssah, Emmanuel AduMensah, SarfoLiu, HongYao, Runming2024-10-062024-10-062024-07Zwane, et al. (2024). An evaluation of the quantitative risk assessment simulation undertaken during the planning stage of mega-projects In: Laryea, S. et al. (Eds) Proceedings of the WABER SuDBE Conference, 30 to 31 July 2024, Johannesburg, South Africa 967-977978-0-7961-6032-4978-0-7961-6032-4 (e-book)https://hdl.handle.net/10539/41385This paper was presented at the Proceedings of the WABER SuDBE 2024 Conference, 30th – 31st July 2024, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa.This research examines how the absence of robust risk identification processes during the planning stage can significantly impact the quantitative risk assessment (QRA) outcomes and increase the likelihood of cost overruns in mega-projects in South Africa. By analysing specific mega-projects and their risk identification procedures, this study highlights the importance of a high-quality assessment of the QRA input stage in the context of these mega-projects. Through surveys and interviews with project managers and stakeholders, the study has provided deeper insights into the consequences of inadequate planning, such as project cost overruns and decreased project profitability. The research indicated that a robust risk identification process during the planning stage is pivotal in mitigating cost overruns in mega-projects in South Africa. Projects that prioritise structured methodologies involving all the relevant stakeholders and conduct comprehensive risk identification practices are better equipped to control project costs. The unanimous agreement on the significance of risk identification in cost overrun prevention emphasises its paramount importance. The findings will contribute to the risk management body of knowledge, offering valuable recommendations for improved risk identification and mitigation strategies to enhance project outcomes and positively impact project owners. Lastly, the paper sheds light on the nuanced landscape of risk identification, its impact on cost overruns, and the strategies for its improvement.en©2024 University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg. All rights reserved. The copyright in this work vests in the University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg. No part of this work may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, without the prior written permission of University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg.© Copyright The copyright for papers in this publication belongs to the authors of the papers.Construction riskMega-projectsPlanning stageQuantitative risk assessment (QRA)Risk identificationSDG-9: Industry, innovation and infrastructureConference ProceedingsUniversity of the Witwatersrand, JohannesburgWABER SuDBE Conference 20240009-0004-6259-37770000-0003-0373-4053