An energy mix policy to address the 

wicked problem of energy insecurity 

in South Africa 

 

Student name 

NDUDUZO S. P. KHUMALO 

Student Number 

853766 

A research article submitted to the Faculty of Commerce, Law and 

Management, University of the Witwatersrand, in partial fulfilment of the 

requirements for the degree of Master of Business Administration 

 

Johannesburg, 2023 

 

Protocol number: WWBS/BA853766/655 

  



 

 
ii 

DECLARATION 

 

I, Nduduzo Khumalo, declare that this research article is my own work except as 

indicated in the references and acknowledgements. It is submitted in partial 

fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Business Administration 

in the Graduate School of Business Administration, University of the Witwatersrand, 

Johannesburg. It has not been submitted before for any degree or examination in 

this or any other university. 

Nduduzo Siyabonga Percivel Khumalo       

 

Signed at Johannesburg South  

 

On the 31st day of May 2023 

 

  



 

 
iii 

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS 

I would like to express my sincere gratitude and thanks to my supervisor, Senior 

Lecturer, at Wits – School of Economics and Business Sciences, Dr. Lumkile P. 

Mondi, for his support and guidance with this study. 

Special thanks are due to Prof. Bhekisipho Twala, and my friends at work, MBA 

Cohort Saturday B, for support and great ideas that made a contribution to this 

project. 

Finally, I would like to thank my family, for sustained support and encouragement. 

  



 

 
iv 

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION 

Nominated journal:  
Journal of Energy in Southern Africa. 

https://energyjournal.africa/ 

Supervisor / Co-author: Dr. Lumkile Mondi 

Word count †: 23115  

Supplementary files: APPENDIX A: Secondary Data Sources  

 

† Including abstract references, etc. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  

https://energyjournal.africa/


 

 
v 

ABSTRACT 

Eskom is struggling to consistently supply electricity as required by the country, 

therefore failing to keep the lights on. Eskom has been producing less and less 

power over the years, a wicked problem for an economy faced with poverty, 

unemployment and inequality. This wicked problem in the energy (electricity) supply 

system has impacted a large number of stakeholders. These include, mining, 

commercial and industrial, agriculture, households and the entire Southern African 

Power Pool and its customers. As a result, this energy insecurity problem of all the 

stakeholders is therefore considered as a wicked problem that does not have a 

straightforward solution. 

This research investigates the impact and challenges in the economy and society 

at large as a result of wicked problem, energy insecurity, and assesses what can 

be done by the society to mitigate these challenges and then propose a solution to 

the identified problem in the form of Energy Mix Policy. It does so by using 

secondary data from multiple database sources. 

This research argues that the energy insecurity (unreliable energy supply) in South 

Africa is a wicked problem. It affects multiple stakeholders from the business 

communities, government, industries, and everyone in the society, even touching 

climate change environmental management sectors. This also affects all economic 

industries, commercial businesses, water supply, hospitals, telecommunications, 

and transportation sectors, etc. as they all require power to operate, and therefore 

a solution would require all these stakeholders to be involved and act collectively 

together in finding a solution that can assure energy security for all. 

 

Keywords: Energy Security, Energy Insecurity, Wicked Problems, Energy Mix 

Policy, Economic Development, Unemployment, Society, South Africa, Poverty. 

 

  



 

 
1 

CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION 

1.1 Introduction 

The term wicked problem was initially used by a German academic named Horst 

Rittel in the 1960s.  A wicked problem is one that does not have a single clear 

solution, rather, it is viewed differently by different parties, and attempts to address 

it can cause further problems to arise (McGregor, 2011; Batie, 2008). Wicked 

problems are difficult challenges that do not have any generalizable methodologies 

to generate prospective solutions and that cannot be resolved in a predictable and 

straightforward manner, necessitating the use of multiscale approaches, strategic 

strategies, and more complete solutions (Huang et al., 2022; DeFries & Nagendra, 

2017; Rittel & Webber, 1973). It didn't become widely used until the 1970s 

(Thollander et al, 2019). 

This research argues that the energy insecurity (unreliable energy supply) in South 

Africa is a wicked problem. It affects multiple stakeholders from the business 

communities, government, industries, and everyone in the society, even touching 

climate change environmental management sectors. This also affects all economic 

industries, commercial businesses, water supply, hospitals, telecommunications, 

and transportation sectors, as they all require power to operate, and therefore a 

solution would require all these stakeholders to be involved and act collectively 

together in finding a solution that can assure energy security for all. It will not be 

easy, as in most cases, these stakeholders always have different interests and 

perspective of how the solution should look like for them and their benefits, 

forgetting the broader public, especially the poorer citizens. 

There are several barriers that need to be overcome in order to make a switch to 

energy security right now. These barriers include the economy, the environment, 

and the infrastructure (Baker et al., 2014). Therefore, even though technological 

advancement may take place in stages, the constraints in the energy supply and 

surplus imply that trade-offs need to be made in order to accommodate the 

competing pressures of job protection, socioeconomic development, and 

addressing the historically disadvantaged population as well (Baker et al., 2014). 

We might conceive of the challenges experienced and processes of modifying the 



 

 
2 

South African electrical energy power system to fit the demands of our current and 

future cities as.  

1.2 Background  

Prior to the end of apartheid in 1993, just 36% of the population had access to 

electricity as a result of racial exclusion (RSA Parliament, 1994). Rural and urban 

population who had access to electricity around 1996 was at 23,8% and 85,3% 

respectively (RSA Parliament, 1994). Between 1994 and 2016, ESKOM, under the 

ANC Government increased access to over 88% of the country’s population (INEP, 

2022). This led to an increase in the demand of energy, as compared to the 

generation capacity infrastructure built. 

More studies need to be conducted to address the “wicked problem” of alleviating 

energy poverty while also reducing carbon emissions in South Africa's energy 

sector and achieving the country's 2030 targets for becoming a greener economy. 

The insecurity of energy supply in Southern Africa is a wicked problem for two main 

reasons. First, by resolving the crisis, one could build a free and equal society by 

eradicating poverty, fostering economic growth, and eliminating unemployment. 

Second, one could ensure long-term sustainability by implementing mitigation for 

climate change strategies that concentrate on the energy sector. The issue with 

this, though, the fact that these two occurrences are not necessarily mutually 

exclusive. Poverty declines when income rises (a result of thriving enterprises and 

economic expansion), while emissions rise as a result of increased energy use to 

support economic growth. How can we build a system where emissions and poverty 

are reduced? 

There has been very little investment to the energy generation infrastructure, 

between 1994 and 2006. The South African economy grew at a rapid pace between 

2001 and 2007 with …. Quarters of economic growth last seen in the 1960s. This 

resulted in excess demand of electricity matching by constrained supply as a result 

of underinvestment. South Africa found itself with energy insecurity since ESKOM 

could not keep the lights on.    



 

 
3 

Eskom started implementing loadshedding late 2007 and became worse in 2008, 

and it has gotten worse over the years with 2021 and 2022 being the worse years 

South Africa has been hit by loadshedding.  

The Electricity Generation has been reducing yearly, even though the demand has 

been declining (Andrade et al., 2020).  

The energy sector in South Africa is distinguished by the abundant and low-cost 

generation of power from coal. Nevertheless, South Africa is presently dealing with 

an energy insecurity crisis that exhibits no signs of improvement in terms of the 

development, accessibility, or dependability. Electricity, or development that is 

particularly energy demanding, is a structural requirement for the economy. The 

political misalignment, infrastructure, and energy vision in South Africa all appear to 

conflict with one another, with the conflicting interests in the presidency and ministry 

of energy where it appears that the presidency is prioritising the variable renewable 

energy (decarbonisation), even when the whole world is falling back to Coal and 

Nuclear because of the Russia and Ukraine War, versus the ministry of energy who 

seems to be wanting to prioritise energy security (with Coal and Nuclear) as to keep 

the lights on and prioritise the economic development like all states Globally.  

The course that has been established appears to be hampered by a number of 

different restrictions that prevent it from moving in a single direction. These include 

the lack of reliability in the supply of power may be traced back to poor management 

on the part of Eskom and local municipalities, meddling from the government, and 

a failure to take decisive action. Increasing insecurity concerns have led to an 

intermittent and costly supply of power to the country. These difficulties include 

ongoing corruption with the awarding of maintenance bids, cable theft as a result of 

high pricing and living standards in South Africa, and further demands from 

international communities for South Africa to move towards renewable energy 

sources in a more accelerated rate than the current REIPPP programs. 

This has led to a decrease in the standard of life for the people who live there, as 

well as forced unfavourable changes in social and commercial behaviour, a rise in 

the cost of food, employment instability, and measures to provide social handouts 



 

 
4 

to compensate for the imbalance. Because of the unreliability of the country's 

electricity supply, several prospective domestic and international enterprises have 

decided not to invest in the country as a result. 

In order to satisfy demand and maintain the integrity of the system, the monopolistic 

state-owned enterprises in South Africa have offered financial incentives to high-

intensity industrial users to reduce the amount of output they generate. This has a 

significant impact on the GDP, particularly on the mining industry, which accounts 

for sixty percent of total exports. As a result, there is less money going into the 

country as a result of this.   

The energy catastrophes which impacted South Africa in 2008 and consequential 

economic slowdown have also deterred further foreign investments from coming in 

that wanted to explore massive development in the country which would have been 

initially supported by a cheap and reliable stockpile of coal. These foreign 

investments wanted to come into South Africa but have been prevented from doing 

so by the electricity crises. The nation was then subjected to load shedding for the 

very first time. As a result, businesses in the manufacturing and mining industries 

were put at a disadvantage due to the fact that they were already bound by an 

electricity agreement, which required them to maximize efficiency and cut down on 

consumption by any and all means possible. However, residential and retail areas 

did not sign this agreement because electricity was inexpensive in those areas. As 

a result, there was no incentive or initiative on the part of these businesses to 

reduce their consumption of electricity or even seek alternative ways to generate 

different types of electricity. 

As a result of the energy crisis, there has been a significant disruption in terms of 

psychological modifications to decrease the amount of power consumed. It is called 

a perverse method to load shedding, and it is used to minimize the amount of power 

consumed in order to stabilize the electricity system. Since it was first implemented, 

load shedding has had a profound impact on the economy. 

The unscheduled reduction in load had a detrimental impact on the mining 

department. Manufacturing and retailing, however, were nonetheless impacted, 



 

 
5 

substantial losses were incurred by cold processing, and farmers were also hit with 

financial setbacks. This was the case even though load shedding had been 

anticipated. 

Increasing the price is another method for lowering demand, and we have seen that 

this method has been utilized; nevertheless, it appears to be a catch-22 scenario 

when the price increases excessively fast and to an excessive degree. An increase 

that is executed too quickly will result in a rise in inflation, and as a result, a 

technique that is adopted step by step is required. However, if the rise in price is 

too little, there is not enough of a corresponding decrease in demand, and this puts 

a pressure on the system. 

In addition, a reliable and uninterrupted electricity supply is essential in order to 

eliminate the poverty and unemployment that are currently affecting the rural and 

farming communities in South Africa. 

1.3 Importance of Energy Security  

Electricity security is extremely significant when considering all the other industries 

electricity gave birth to and industries it supplies worldwide, day in day out and the 

logistic and support industries that supply it. The electricity industry in South Africa 

is heterogeneous in structure, in technical and environmental standards as well as 

in global networking. Nevertheless, all subdivisions of electricity industry have the 

same challenges for the future, which arise from environmental standards, socio-

economic issues of the country, theft, infrastructure-vandalism and globalisation in 

the energy markets. However, the South African electrical energy industry also has 

some unique problems based on regional structures of production and markets. 

1.4 Research Problem Statement, Questions and Propositions 

Eskom is struggling to consistently supply electricity as required by the country, 

therefore failing to keep the lights on. Eskom has been producing less and less 

power over the years, a wicked problem for an economy faced with poverty, 

unemployment and inequality. This wicked problem in the energy (electricity) supply 

system has impacted a large number of stakeholders. These include, mining, 

commercial and industrial, agriculture, households and the entire Southern African 



 

 
6 

Power Pool and its customers. As a result, this energy insecurity problem of all the 

stakeholders is therefore considered as a wicked problem that does not have a 

straightforward solution. 

The implementation of extensive load shedding since capacity expansions and 

increases have not been sufficient to stem the loss in produced electricity, has led 

to other unintended consequences, slowdown in industrialisation, destroying small 

and medium enterprises and jobs.  

This research investigates the impact and challenges in the economy and society 

at large as a result of wicked problem, energy insecurity, assesses what can be 

done by the society to mitigate these challenges. It does so by using secondary 

data from multiple database sources, industry, surveys/interviews, and research 

papers available online and in the University of the Witwatersrand Library. 

1.4.1 Research Questions   

The proposed research questions that are considered to address the research 

problem are: 

1) What has been the economic, social, political, and environmental impact of 

the energy insecurity in South Africa? 

2) What strategies can be used and implemented to improve and mitigate 

further energy insecurity in the future of South Africa? 

1.4.2 Research Propositions 

The research propositions based on the questions above for the research questions 

above. 

1) Energy insecurity in South African has had severe and detrimental economic 

developmental impact. This wicked problem has given rise to a wide range 

of social, economic, political and environmental challenges in the country 

that necessitate multi-stakeholder collaborative careful examination and 

intervention.  

 

2) To effectively address energy insecurity and ensure a secure energy supply 

for South Africa's economic development, effective decision-making 



 

 
7 

necessitates collective collaboration among different stakeholders, including 

government officials, energy industry, experts, and representatives from 

economic, social, political, and environmental sectors who are involved in 

energy policy and implementation strategies. It is important to expand the 

focus beyond decarbonization and prioritize meeting the nation's energy 

security needs. 

 

1.5 Research Focus, Scope, and limitations 

This research project focuses on energy in the form of electricity and evaluates the 

wicked problem of energy insecurity. Furthermore, it investigates the impact and 

challenges in the economy and society at large as a result of energy insecurity, and 

what can be done by stakeholders to mitigate these challenges.  

The research work is mostly desk top research, using secondary data from multiple 

statistical databases, and primary data from surveys/interviews where necessary 

and stakeholders’ input from the energy industry and in Government who make the 

Energy Policies. The main outcome for this research project is a dissertation report 

identifying and describing fit technological solutions, and drafting energy policy 

recommendations, which would assist in trying to address the energy insecurity 

problems facing South Africa.  

This research does not analyse in detail the related energy topics like energy 

efficiency, electrification, energy technologies analysis, energy equity, energy 

policy, and energy pricing etc. 

1.6 Conclusion 

The research project aims to enlighten stakeholders about the major social, 

economic and challenges caused by energy insecurity and provide prospective 

benefits of mixed energy technologies, by facilitating relations among all 

stakeholders including policymakers, industry stakeholders, leaders, and academic 

researchers to endorse deployment of the energy mix systems that will improve 

energy security. 



 

 
8 

CHAPTER 2: RELATED LITERATURE AND DISCUSSION 

2.1 Introduction 

Energy is an essential resource that is necessary to produce products and services 

and the improvement of personal, societal, and economic well-being (Global Energy 

Institute, 2018). It is necessary for the manufacturing of products and services 

across a variety of businesses, as well as for the movement of people and goods, 

as well as for the heating, lighting, and operation of different home appliances in 

private residences.  

Energy is the engine that keeps the economy moving forward. Energy, business, 

the economy, growth, and overall development are all essentially reliant on 

governmental need, available capacity, and affordable pricing. Demand and growth 

are both dependent on a number of factors, the most important of which are public 

health and safety. 

2.2 Energy Security  

The issue of energy security has been around since the 1970s (Zhiznin et al., 2020), 

but there is no universally accepted definition, even though the subject of is 

recognized as a vital aspect of the current economic and political discourse. The 

definition of the phrase has changed over the course of more than four decades 

(Zhiznin et al, 2020). 

According to the definition provided by the Copenhagen School, “security” refers to 

“a serious threat to a specific item” (Buzan et al., 1998, p25).  

According to the Energy Security Master Plan-Electricity published by the South 

African Department of Minerals and Energy for the period 2007 to 2025, Energy 

security is defined as “ensuring that diverse energy resources, in sustainable 

quantities and at affordable prices, are available to the South African economy in 

support of economic growth and poverty alleviation, taking into account 

environmental management requirements and interactions among economic 

sectors” (DMRE 2007a:13) and as also cited in Trollip et al., (2014,p.5).  



 

 
9 

Energy security reflects different notions in different countries and situations (Jewell 

and Cherp, 2014).  

According to the International Energy Agency, (1974) energy security, is 

“uninterrupted availability of energy sources at a reasonable price”.  

Winzer (2012) observes that the context is typically incorporated into the definition 

of energy security. Winzer (2012) adds that in a number of emerging nations, the 

objective of energy security has been to shield the poor from commodity price 

instability. Energy security is defined by him as the continuity of energy supplies 

relative to energy demand. 

Energy security, according to Cherp and Jewell (2011), is an example of security in 

general and is defined as “low vulnerability of vital energy systems”. 

Energy security, according to Andrews (2005) and Jun et al. (2009), entails ensuring 

enough, reliable energy supply at acceptable rates and without jeopardizing 

important national values and goals. 

Energy security, as defined by Intharak et al. (2007), is the capacity of an economy 

to ensure the availability of energy supply in a sustainable and timely way at a price 

that does not hinder economic performance and development. 

Energy security, according to (APERC) Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre 

(2007), comprises of the four A's: accessibility, availability, affordability, and 

acceptability.  

The energy supply is often the designated item within the context of the energy 

securitization framework (Zhiznin et al, 2020). The International Energy Agency 

(IEA) distinguishes between two separate types of energy security: prolonged (long 

term) and short-term. Long-term energy security, which focuses largely on the need 

to make current investments in energy supply; economic development; and 

sustainable environmental needs (Zhiznin et al, 2020). Short-term energy security 

is based on the energy system's ability to respond rapidly to sudden fluctuations 

caused by the supply-demand mismatch (IEA, 2014a).  



 

 
10 

Energy security, according to this view, is based on dependability, affordability, 

competitiveness, and physical availability of supplies (IEA, 2014a) and is centred 

on the customer (Zhiznin et al, 2020).  

The World Energy Council (WEC) suggests minor modifications to the International 

Energy Agency's (IEA) concept and emphasizes that energy security is one of the 

three core dimensions of the Energy Trilemma (energy equity, energy security, and 

environmental sustainability (Zhiznin et al, 2020). The council defines energy 

security as the “efficient management of primary energy supplies derived from both 

internal and external sources, the dependability of the energy infrastructure, and 

the capacity of energy supplying organizations to satisfy both the present and the 

anticipated demand in the foreseeable future” (World Energy Council, 2014, p11). 

However, affordability is not included in this definition, as the Agency has moved 

the concept of affordability to a different dimension of the energy trilemma, namely 

to the concept of the fair allocation of energy resources. 

Chester (2010) referred to the idea of energy security as “polysemic” and “slippery,” 

two terms that he used to define the notion (Månsson et al., 2014). This is because 

various stakeholders have varied ideas about what security entails and how it can 

be brought up to an acceptable level (Månsson et al., 2014). This variability can be 

attributed to variations in how various stakeholders appreciate the importance of 

distinct parameters, such as decentralization of supply and energy intensity 

(Bambawale & Sovacool, 2011), as well as differences on a national level, such as 

whether the stakeholder's country is resource-rich or a net importer (Bradshaw, 

2010), as cided in Ayoo (2020) and if the primary focus in the country is on market 

economics or government oversight. In industrialized nations and underdeveloped 

nations, energy security tends to be more directly tied to the supply of access to 

energy to the underprivileged in rural parts of the country, and in the third scenario, 

access is provided for the fast-increasing industry and service sectors in urban 

areas (Månsson et al., 2014; Kuik et al., 2011).  

Energy security is dynamic, with different perspectives on stability and cost 

effectiveness (Månsson et al., 2014; von Hippel et al., 2011). This has led to a 



 

 
11 

discussion among academics over how the state of energy security will evolve over 

time and the most effective ways to adapt (Ciută, 2010). 

Johansson (2013) suggested that there is a distinction between the following 

scenarios: 

i) when the energy grid is analysed as an attribute that is subjected to 

threats, which is commonly referred to as “security of supply” or “security 

of demand,” and  

ii) when the energy system functions as an intermediary that creates or 

improves (in)security, for example as a result of a presumed political or 

economic value (Månsson et al., 2014).  

Energy security studies should focus on the many aspects that influence security, 

as it is unlikely, and maybe even undesirable, to reach an agreement on a single 

definition and understanding of energy security. 

Winzer (2012) proposed that energy security should be distinguished from other 

policy objectives by defining it as “the continuity of energy supplies relative to 

demand”, thus narrowing the concept to “security of supply.” Therefore emphasizing 

the need for a safe supply chain (Månsson et al., 2014). 

Energy security reflects different notions in different situations and countries due to 

its own energy system characteristics (Jewell and Cherp, 2014). On the other hand, 

because this phrase has not been defined in its whole, it is difficult to quantify it and 

strike an equilibrium between it and other political ambitions. 

A clear conceptualization of energy security is essential for an efficient and effective 

pursuit of this policy goal. 

2.3 Understanding energy insecurity as a wicked problem 

Energy insecurity is the inability to meet the energy demands of homes, businesses, 

and communities, resulting in negative environmental, social, and behavioural 

effects (Hernández, 2016). Bohi and Toman (1993;1996) as cited in Ayoo (2020), 



 

 
12 

defined energy insecurity as “the loss of welfare that may occur as a result of a 

change in the price or availability of energy.” 

A wicked problem is a complex social or socio-economical issue that is best 

described by the complexity of formulation of the problem and the 

multidimensionality of various stakeholder groups associated with identifying and 

tackling the problem (Niskanen et al., 2021). The term “wicked problems” is 

frequently used to describe these types of issues because of their complexity. A 

wicked problem is characterized by its contentious, one-of-a-kind, difficult to solve, 

and emergent characteristics, making it difficult to predict the implications of any 

solutions (Rittel & Webber, 1973). 

Wicked problems are difficult to solve due to incomplete, conflicting, or ever-shifting 

needs. They have been used as a paradigm for understanding a variety of issues, 

such as the difficulty of mitigating the effects of climate change (Rittel & Webber, 

1973).  It is difficult to articulate them and come to a decision on how to best address 

them. 

Even when they are the product of public discourse and shared concerns, the 

actions taken to minimize the problems are frequently insufficient and only provide 

a temporary solution (Rittel & Webber, 1973).  

According to Rittel and Webber (1973: pg. 156, 159 and 160), scientific and 

technological approaches to identifying and solving such “problems of open societal 

systems” would thus be worthless. Figure 1 below presents the first ten elements 

of wicked problems that Rittel and Webber (1973) identified as being prevalent in 

these types of issues. 



 

 
13 

 

Table 1: Elements of wicked problems as presented by Rittel & Webber (1973), 

(Niskanen, 2021). 

These wicked challenges have been simplified and refined further by other writers, 

such as the five features described by Conklin (2006), as well as by Levin et al 

(2012) who presented the super wicked problems. 

Nonetheless, the resurrection of the notion in the 21st century illustrates that 

academics have discovered that it connects with the complicated difficulties that are 

confronting modern communities (Danken et al., 2016). 

2.4 The link between Energy insecurity and wicked problems  

The modern electrical energy system is under strain due to rising demand, 

prevalence of population socioeconomic inequality, and climate change challenges. 

Traditional approaches to reducing energy insecurity are insufficient to meet the 

need. 

 

1. There is no definitive formulation of a wicked problem 

2. Wicked problems have no stopping rule 

3. Solutions to wicked problems are not true-or-false, but good-or-bad 

4. There is no immediate and no ultimate test of a solution to a wicked problem 

5. Every solution to a wicked problem is a “one-shot operation”; because there is no 

    opportunity to learn by trial-and-error, every attempt counts significantly 

6. Wicked problems do not have an enumerable (or an exhaustively de-scribable) 

    set of potential solutions, nor is there a well-described set of permissible 

    operations that may be incorporated into the plan 

7. Every wicked problem is essentially unique 

8. Every wicked problem can be considered to be a symptom of another problem 

9. The existence of a discrepancy representing a wicked problem can be explained 

    in numerous ways. The choice of explanation determines the nature of the 

    problem’s resolution 

10. The planner has no right to be wrong 

 

 



 

 
14 

In spite of the substantial resources that have been committed towards solving the 

problem, several of the policy difficulties that majority (if not all) governments are 

currently facing are really complicated, politicised, controversial, and appear to be 

unsolvable (Clark & Stewart, 1997). There is no resolution that is readily apparent 

or easily established (Coyne, 2005). Challenges such as climate change, poverty, 

inequality, crime, infrastructure theft and vandalism, and apartheid caused 

disadvantages are some manifestations of these policy difficulties in South Africa. 

There are a number of distinguishing features that may be used to identify wicked 

problems; however, not all of these features are required for a situation to be 

considered wicked (Roberts, 2000). 

2.5 Energy Security for modern functioning of economies and 

societies 

It is common practice to allude to the “security of supply” of electricity, which is 

another euphemism for “keeping the lights on,” while discussing the issue of 

electricity security (IEA, 2020). The ultimate objective is to supply consumers with 

power in a dependable manner and at a price that is affordable (IEA, 2020). There 

are a lot of things that may go wrong on the way to achieving this goal, from the 

equipment breaking down and running out of fuel to errors in the operational 

planning, people making mistakes, and malicious attacks.  

The following is the definition that is used by the IEA: Electrical security refers to 

the capacity of the energy system to withstand and recover from disruptions and 

unforeseen circumstances, therefore ensuring that there is continuous supply of 

electricity (IEA, 2020). 

Energy security (Electricity) is the consolidation of all actions taken, including those 

that are economic, technical, and legislative in nature, through the objective of 

maximizing the mark of security in the context of both the short-term and long-term 

effects of the energy transition, cyber events, and climate change (IEA, 2020). 

The power industry is undergoing essential shifts, such as decarbonization, 

digitalization, and changes in climate change, which are leading to an increase in 



 

 
15 

the frequency and severity of extreme weather events (IEA, 2020). To ensure a 

reliable energy supply, governments, businesses, and other stakeholders need to 

update their frameworks, such as the legislation, regulations, and market structures 

that regulate the industry, to ensure security. 

Electricity is essential for the digital economy, even though it only makes up a fifth 

of primary energy consumption in the world (IEA, 2020). 

Recent challenges brought on by the Covid-19 global epidemic serve to bring to our 

attention the critical role that electricity plays in every facet of life, such as ensuring 

that medical equipment in hospitals continues to function properly and that 

information technology networks are accessible for remote communications and 

working or popularly known as “working from home” (Madurai et al., 2020). The 

effects of a power outage that lasts for an extended period of time go well beyond 

the real worth of the loosing electricity purchase in and of itself (IEA, 2020). 

2.6 Importance of energy security 

Electricity Generation, Transmission and Distribution are essential for all 

economies, providing essential services such as healthcare, communication, 

banking, transportation, and manufacturing (IEA,2020).  The Electricity industry has 

been slow to make use of the mixture of technologies needed to meet the high 

demands of electricity. However, it has been studied and observed that a careful 

mixture of technologies can be effective in reducing carbon footprint, increasing 

penetration of intermittent renewable energy, and ensuring security of supply for 

industries that improve and encourage economic development for those parts of 

the world, by finding different alternatives to address the baseload challenges. 

Typically, wicked problems are the result of the interaction of multiple stakeholders, 

each of whom has their own unique set of values, perceptions, and options. 

Similarly, to try and tackle wicked problems requires the participation of multiple 

and all stakeholders to act together, hence in the next section I discuss stakeholder 

theory, as the South African energy insecurity will require the simultaneous use of 

a variety of strategies and methods drawn from a wide range of fields in order to 

resolve wicked problem.  



 

 
16 

2.7 Stakeholders Theory  

The stakeholder theory of managing organizations is a major paradigm shift 

(Amaeshi & Crane, 2006) that examines the interaction between both the company 

and its stakeholders (Ayuso, et al., 2006). It is based on Freeman's (1984) definition 

of stakeholders, which states that “any group and individuals who can affect or is 

affected by the achievement of an organization's objectives” (Freeman, 2010, p. 

46). This term was especially significant to this research since it brought to light the 

fact that the interaction between the organization and its stakeholders is a two-way 

relationship. 

Stakeholders are structures that either impact or are influenced by an organization's 

decisions (Bryson, 2007; Petkov et al., 2007; Grimble & Wellard, 1997). They are 

“anyone who affects or is affected by operations of a company” (Reed et al., 2009: 

12).  

Stakeholder theory focuses on the goals of an organization and divides 

stakeholders into categories according to the goals of the company (Marcon Nora 

et al., 2022; Freeman, 1984). Only individuals or groups of persons are considered 

interested parties when seen through the lens of stakeholder theory (Phillips & 

Reichart, 2000; Freeman, 1984).   

Stakeholder analysis is a technique used to understand the positions of 

stakeholders and their relationships with decision-making, as well as their 

requirements, goals, and potential conflicts. (Aly et al., 2019; Reed et al., 2009; 

Grimble, 1998). Stakeholder analysis identifies major stakeholders (Aly et al., 2019) 

and their impact, interrelationships, and decision-making objectives, providing a 

starting point for decision support tools (Reed et al. 2009; Bryson, 2004; Grimble, 

1998). 

Being able to categorize key stakeholders focusing on their relevancy scale is 

beneficial for assessing the potential impact of a certain stakeholder group on the 

decision-making process in a complicated multi-stakeholder (Aly et al., 2019), 

wicked problem such as energy insecurity. According to stakeholder models, 



 

 
17 

companies have a responsibility to be aware of the diverse needs of their 

constituents and respond appropriately to those needs (Post et al., 2002). 

Organizations should focus their efforts on developing “relationships between 

organisation and stakeholders” (Greenwood, 2007, p.318), for both normative and 

instrumental reasons which are essential for the success of the organization (Ayuso 

et al., 2006; Donaldson & Preston, 1995). 

Managers have a responsibility to take into account the interests of stakeholders 

who have a legitimate stake in the organization (Ayuso et al., 2006; Preble, 2005). 

According to normative theory, the organization has a moral duty to interact with 

stakeholders (Greenwood, 2007; Preble, 2005), and people have a democratic right 

to participate in the decision-making process. Instrumental theory views 

stakeholders as important in helping organizations accomplish their 

goal(Donaldson & Preston, 1995; Preble, 2005). This view contrasts with the view 

that democratic theory takes of stakeholders. 

Stakeholders are any individuals or groups with interests in an organization, and 

Donaldson and Preston's (1995) definition implies that all stakeholders have value 

and deserve equal treatment. Greenwood (2007) argues that the debate on the 

relationship between stakeholders and the organization has shifted to identifying 

stakeholders, and that if an organization does not build filters to differentiate 

between key and less crucial stakeholders, the dialogue must encompass everyone 

and everything (Strydom, 2016; Pedersen, 2006). Critical stakeholders must be 

identified and selected based on criteria that differentiate them from other vital 

stakeholders (Strydom, 2016; Pedersen, 2006; Preble, 2005). 

Figure 1 below is high level diagram that shows the stakeholders of the South 

African Energy sector, which help highlight the complexity and interdependencies 

of multiple industries and stakeholders which in many instances have different and 

conflicting goals, which would create a challenge for the sector in order to provide 

energy security for the country’s economy.  

We have the South African Government, which is a public entity with multiple 

departments responsible for a variety of policy directives, high level decision-



 

 
18 

making, which sometimes contradict each other as they departments have different 

objectives, as well as different role players that in many cases would impact one 

another. Within the scope of the Government departments, we have two critical 

entities, directly driving the energy sector, which is the department of mineral 

resources and energy (DMR&E) and National Energy Regulator of South Africa 

(NERSA). 

Figure 1: Stakeholders of the South African Energy (Electricity) Sector 

Source: Authors’ Own Analysis 

DMR&E is “mandated to ensure the transparent and efficient regulation of South 

Africa's mineral resources and minerals industry, and the secure and sustainable 

provision of energy in support of socioeconomic development” (DMRE, 2022a) and 

it is also anticipated that this would increase the engagement of the private sector 

in the energy industry (DMRE, 2022b). 



 

 
19 

NERSA is “mandated to regulate South Africa's electricity, piped gas and petroleum 

industries and to collect levies from people holding title to gas and petroleum 

(DMRE, 2022b)” but is not limited to this, as NERSA’s responsibilities also include: 

iii) The administration of licenses, the establishment and approval of tariffs and 

charges, the mediation of disputes, the collection of information pertaining 

to the energy industry as a whole, and the promotion of the most efficient 

use of energy resources are all responsibilities of an energy regulator 

(DMRE, 2022b). 

iv) NERSA's role as an economic regulator will require it to maintain a fair 

playing field and guard against abuses committed by monopolies (DMRE, 

2022b). 

v) The regulator is essential because it will foster more access to the market 

and competitiveness in a market that is dominated by single major players, 

like Eskom in the Electricity sector (DMRE, 2022b). 

Then there is Eskom Holdings which has Generation, Transmission and Distribution 

as sub-entities.  

Eskom is mandated “to provide electricity in an efficient and sustainable manner, 

including its generation, transmission and distribution and retail” (Eskom, n.d.). The 

company also has a developmental role and will promote transformation, economic 

development and brad based black economic empowerment (DPE, n.d.).  

Eskom is responsible for producing and distributing electricity to residential, 

commercial, industrial, agricultural, and mining clients, as well as municipalities or 

redistributors (DPE, n.d.). 

Municipalities distribute power to end users (residential and business) and 

Independent Power Producers (IPPs) Generate power from renewable energy 

sources.  

Labour unions (i.e., COSATU) which represents employees and ensure they are 

compensated and treated fairly by the employers like Eskom Holdings.  



 

 
20 

There are environmental advocacy groups, which are environmental civil societies 

and activists who promote healthy environment, environmental protection, and 

companies recognizes the interdependence of people and the environment, by 

making sure the use of fossil fuels (Emissions reduction) is reduced, greener 

technologies (Increased renewable energy penetration) are used (Centre for 

Environmental Rights, n.d.). This is part of their effort to realize the constitutional 

right to a healthy environment.  

We then have the Private and Public investors and Business industries who invests 

money into the energy sector and consumes large quantalities of energy and also 

play a key role with all the above stakeholders in the development of the South 

African Economy.  

2.8  Conclusion - Critical Review Assessment of Literature  

The subject of energy supply security is recognized as a vital aspect of the current 

economic and political discourse, but there seems to be no universally accepted 

definition that has already been acknowledged amongst international community. 

Energy security is the availability of diverse energy resources to support economic 

growth and poverty alleviation, taking into account environmental management 

requirements. Different countries have different energy system characteristics, 

leading to different definitions of energy security. 

Energy security is defined globally as the inability to meet the fundamental energy 

demands of homes, businesses, and communities, with its associated negative 

environmental, social, and behavioural effects.  

A clear conceptualization of energy security is essential for effective policy 

implementation. 

A wicked problem is a complex social or socio-economical issue that is best 

described by the complexity of formulation and multidimensionality of various 

stakeholder groups. This is exemplified by the electrical energy system 

stakeholders (Figure 1), which have different and conflicting goals. This creates a 

challenge for the sector to provide energy security for the country's economy. 



 

 
21 

Global energy insecurity is a result of public discourse and shared concerns, and 

actions taken to minimize it are often insufficient or worse depending on the angle 

of perception. Government policy difficulties are complex, politicised, controversial, 

and appear to be unsolvable. 

Wicked problems in electrical energy security and insecurity have not been studied 

much globally, particularly in Southern Africa, and their consequences to societal 

social and economic issues. 

Wicked problems in developing countries have not been thoroughly studied, even 

though scholars like Niskanen, V.P., Rask, M., & Raisio (2021) have studied 

“Wicked Problems in Africa”. This paper highlighted multiple the wicked problems 

but did not include any studies in the realm of energy, nor mention the subject of 

energy security/insecurity. 

Energy insecurity is also a subject that has not been studied nor discussed much 

directly but has been studied with reference to energy security globally, but in the 

Southern Africa it hasn’t been a focus, as well as the societal social issues that arise 

because of energy insecurity have also not been tackled. 

These are some of the many gaps in the concepts of wicked problems and energy 

insecurity, my research is tackling.  

  



 

 
22 

CHAPTER 3: RESEARCH METHODOLOGY  

3.1 Introduction 

This Chapter outlines the research methodology used to study the wicked problem 

of energy insecurity in South Africa, including the research design, appropriateness 

of the research method, research sample, instruments used, data collection, data 

analysis and delimitations of the research. 

3.2 Research design method 

This research project is characterized as qualitative, descriptive, non-experimental 

analytical research, and its technique is mostly based on a systematic literature 

review and case study research. The research design for the study is depicted in 

Figure 2 below. Secondary data was gathered for the study from a variety of 

sources, mostly from reports and charts/data prepared by ESKOM, the World Bank, 

World Economic Forum, to analyse and answer the questions and confirm 

propositions. The sources include but are not limited to the ones detailed in 

APPENDIX A below. 

 

Figure 2: Iterative Research design method steps. 

Source: Authors’ Own Analysis 

The first two phases, according to the design model that is provided in Figure 2, 

consist of first outlining the research problem statement, with its associated 

research questions, and then identifying the dominant factors that are contributing 



 

 
23 

to the wicked problem of energy insecurity. After this step, the collection of 

secondary data, from different sources as detailed in the annex, then the analysis 

of the secondary data and key factors are analysed with reference to the research 

questions and the propositions made for the study, which all lead to the results of 

the study, and the presentation of the solutions to the problem statement and finally 

the conclusions are drawn from the study.  

3.2 The appropriateness of the research method selected  

An exploratory, descriptive and explanatory studies are the three types of research. 

The purpose of exploratory research is to gain “new insights, ask questions and to 

assess topics in a new light” (Saunders & Lewis, 2012, p. 110), while the focus of 

descriptive research is to provide “an accurate representation of persons, events or 

situations” (p. 111), and the objective of explanatory research is to “studying a 

situation or problem in order to explain the relationship between variable” (p. 113) 

as also cited in Strydom, (2016). 

The literature evaluation is referred to as a systematic review of the literature 

(Voorberg et al., 2015; Gjaltema et al., 2019;). A systematic literature review is 

defined as “review of a clearly formulated question that uses systematic and explicit 

methods to identify, select, and critically appraise relevant research, and to collect 

and analyse data from the studies that are included in the review.”, as stated by 

The Cochrane Collaboration (2015). Whereas “traditional” literature reviews are 

employed for argumentative objectives by picking which pieces of literature to 

evaluate, systematic literature reviews are “methodical, complete, transparent, and 

reproducible,” and are therefore possibly less biased than traditional literature 

reviews (Siddaway et al., 2019, p. 751).  

Because the focus of the study is on the utilization of the idea of wicked problems, 

throughout the entirety of the published literature on South Africa with an extension 

to Africa, rather than just in the research outcomes, this is the technique that will be 

used for the literature review.  



 

 
24 

According to Rajasekar et al. (2006), qualitative research focuses on meaning, 

sentiment, a description of the situation, applies logic, is exploratory, and examines 

the why and how of decision-making (Strydom, 2016). 

 

This in-depth explanatory data would then be used for to identify factors 

affecting/causing the challenges in question. An analysis will be done to draw out 

patterns from concepts and insights into the research problem. Illustrative results & 

recommendations of solutions to the research problem. 

 

An exploratory case study will be undertaken to address the impacts of energy 

insecurity in the economic, social and environmental perspectives and as well as 

looking at what can be done by the country at large to mitigate the energy insecurity 

in the short, medium and long term. To address the 

3.3 Research Population Sample 

Saunders et al., (2012, p. 1320 defined population as “the entire collection of 

members of the group”. The population analysed for this study comprised of all the 

individuals/stakeholders who use energy, either from an economic or social 

perspective, and who are thus exposed to the present electricity supply 

problem.   This group included, but was not limited to, officials from Regulatory 

bodies like NERSA, environmental agencies, Eskom Holdings, multiple 

departments in the ministry of South African Government, Independent Power 

Producers (IPPs), members of the general public and energy consultants. 

3.4 Instruments used in research 

This research will be completely based on desktop research conducted through 

qualitative systematic literature review and case studies is said to be very 

descriptive, as it draws from a wide variety of information sources, as stated by 

Hancock and Algozzine (2006). These information sources come from significant 

participants in the study, in addition to additional literature, tools, and methods that 

were utilized to bring the research to life. One of the unique characteristics of the 

case study technique, according to Baxter et al. (2008), is the capacity to employ 



 

 
25 

numerous sources of information, which eventually boosts the trustworthiness of 

the data.  

 

These various publications may consist of journal articles, technical and non-

technical material, a documentary review, a personal interview, artifacts, personal 

observation, and surveys, which enable the integration of data at analysis stage. 

This is considered as a way to increase the robustness of the study in the sense 

that every data source would be seen as a component of the jigsaw that is finally 

braided with each other to allow for improved knowledge of the phenomena of 

interest. 

 
Since the purpose of the research is to conduct an in-depth analysis of energy 

insecurity as a wicked problem in South Africa, the design of the study that will be 

used is both literature review and an explorative case study. 

 

1) The South African economic, social and environmental impact of the energy 

insecurity in South Africa 

2) It is important that the South African Integrated Resource Plan be relevant 

to improve or mitigate further energy insecurity going into the future of South 

Africa in order to assure both the economic growth of South Africa and the 

fundamental needs of mankind. 

 

The complexity of all the players involved and effected as a result of South Africa's 

energy instability would necessitate the utilization of an integrated case study 

approach for the research. The laws, policies, academic literature, media 

comments, archival data, technical and non-technical studies, that will make up the 

majority of the sources of evidence will be the government's including Eskom. 

3.5 Data Collection  

According to Kabir (2016), the purpose of all data collecting is to acquire high-quality 

evidence that translates into rich data analysis and enables the construction of 

persuasive and believable responses to given questions. 



 

 
26 

 

“Data collection is the process of gathering and measuring information on variables 

of interest, in an established systematic fashion that enables one to answer stated 

research questions, test hypotheses, and evaluate outcomes” (Kabir, 2016, p. 201). 

 

Methods of collecting qualitative data play a significant part in the process of impact 

evaluation because they provide information that is valuable for understanding the 

processes that are behind observable results and assessing changes in people's 

views of their own well-being (Kabir, 2016). 

 

Secondary data, from reports, charts, actual data and other statistical data prepared 

by ESKOM, the World Bank, World Economic Forum, Government Agencies, like 

Stats SA, etc. was used to visualise graphically the impact of energy insecurity, 

related to the factors identified for the research questions, then the analysis of the 

secondary data and key factors will be analysed with reference to the research 

questions and the propositions made for the study, which would all lead to the 

results of the study, and the presentation of the solutions to the problem statement 

and finally the conclusions will be drawn from the study. 

 

Sources and raw data utilised for the study will be kept. Not only will this make it 

possible for future researchers to do more study in the subject, but it will also 

contribute to the research's credibility.  In order to enable for independent evaluation 

of the planned research findings, a dedicated research database with raw data 

format will be kept utilize. This database will contain all data, documents and 

information used in addition to other sources of data. To provide credibility to any 

conclusions that may be drawn from the investigation, it is essential to preserve a 

solid chain of evidence. In order to facilitate the successful integration of research 

problem to outcomes, results, and conclusions, a significant amount of emphasis 

will be placed throughout the actual thesis on providing comprehensive citations of 

all used material, journal papers, databases, as well as other sources of evidence. 

 



 

 
27 

The study period considers from around 1996 to 2022, with major focus on the years 

2007 to 2022, when South Africa started experiencing energy supply challenges, 

but some data may range to years before 1996 and 2007. All the data collected for 

this study, was collected as secondary data from multiple sources as listed in 

Appendix A and referenced in text accordingly. The purposes of all the secondar 

data collected was for the purposes of answering the research questions and testing 

the propositions made for the study.  

3.6 Data Analysis method 

The data analysis to be used to for this research is a descriptive analysis. 

Descriptive analysis involves summarizing and presenting data in a meaningful way 

to provide an overview and understanding of the data (Cote, 2021), It involves using 

current and historical data to identify trends and relationships and is considered the 

simplest form of data analysis because it merely describes trends and relationships 

without delving further (Cote, 2021).  

 

In this research, the data is presented using various figures and statistics to 

describe the access, generation, and consumption of electrical energy in South 

Africa. The data is analysed and presented in the form of percentages, trends, 

comparisons, and historical values. The figures and statistics provide a descriptive 

summary of the data, allowing the audience to understand the current state of 

energy insecurity in South Africa and its impact on the population. 

 

Descriptive analysis is useful in this context as it helps to identify patterns, trends, 

and relationships in the data without going into complex statistical modelling or 

hypothesis testing. It allows for a clear and concise presentation of the key findings, 

making it easier for the audience to interpret and comprehend the results. 

 

The data was collected for the purposes of answering the research questions, which 

asks, 

1) What has been the economic, social, political, and environmental 

impact of the energy insecurity in South Africa? 



 

 
28 

2) What strategies can be used and implemented done to improve and also 

mitigate further energy insecurity going into in the future of South Africa? 

According to Miles and Huberman (1994:10), qualitative analysis involves “three 

concurrent flows of activity: data reduction, data display, and conclusion 

drawing/verification” Figure 3 reproduces their ‘interactive’ model illustrating the 

circular structure of qualitative work. Importantly, they emphasised: 

 

1) Every one of these three elements persists during and following data 

collection. 

2) Data reduction requires analytic decisions and is therefore a component of 

data analysis. 

3) Data presentation assists to organise and condense information, making it 

susceptible to even further interpretation and analysis. 

4) Meanings derived from the data must be evaluated against the data, and if 

required, further meanings must be sought. 

 

Analysis of data is a cyclical process that advances via a series of interactive 

stages. It incorporates a two-steps-forward, one-step-backward progression over 

three key sectors, constantly aiming for an in-depth comprehension of the cases 

and investigation issue. 

 

Figure 3: Reproduced & Modified Miles and Huberman’s Data Analysis 

Components Model, Source: Miles & Huberman, 1994:12, Figure 1.4 

 



 

 
29 

According to Hancock and Algozzine (2006), it is essential to adhere to the following 

rules in order to establish the credibility of the information analysis: 

1. carrying out checks to determine the dependability of internal reliability 

assessments, 

2. identifying any potential biases in the research that might distort the results, 

and 

3. Analysing the collected results in relation to those of previously published 

studies. 

The results will be based on the veracity of the publicly obtained secondary data, 

including papers, websites and journals from e-libraries as indicated in list appendix 

A. 

 

3.7 Limitations of the research Delimitations 

The internal validity of this study will be carefully guarded from being undermined 

by any external or internal variables. It is important to point out that the limits of the 

study may make it susceptible to criticism, but they may also present chances for 

more in-depth research in the future. 

Geographical Delimitation: The research focuses specifically on the energy 

insecurity issue in South Africa. It does not consider energy insecurity in other 

countries or regions. 

Stakeholder Delimitation: The research primarily focuses on the impact and 

challenges faced by stakeholders in South Africa, including mining, commercial and 

industrial sectors, agriculture, households, and the Southern African Power Pool 

and its customers. It does not extensively explore the perspectives of stakeholders 

outside of these sectors. 

Methodological Delimitation: The research relies on secondary data from multiple 

database sources, industry reports, surveys/interviews, and research papers 

available online and in the University of the Witwatersrand Library. It does not 

involve primary data collection through fieldwork or direct observations. 



 

 
30 

Time Delimitation: The research primarily examines the energy insecurity problem 

in South Africa up until the present time (Up to February 2023). It does not delve 

into historical developments before the end of apartheid in 1993 or future 

projections beyond the current situation. 

Solution Delimitation: The research aims to propose a solution to the identified 

energy insecurity problem in the form of an Energy Mix Policy. It does not explore 

alternative policy options or extensively analyse the feasibility and implementation 

challenges of the proposed solution. 

Language Delimitation: The research is conducted in the English language, and 

it primarily draws on sources available in English. This may limit the inclusion of 

relevant literature or perspectives published in other languages. 

3.8 Conclusion 

The research design for the study is based on a secondary systematic literature 

review and case study research. Qualitative research is used to gain insights, ask 

questions, and assess topics in a new light. Multiple Secondary data sources will 

be used to acquire high-quality evidence that translates into rich data analysis. The 

data collected may not always be value neutral. The research does not cover the 

complete spectrum of all aspects of energy. 

  



 

 
31 

CHAPTER 4: DATA ANALYSIS AND RESULTS 

4.1 Introduction 

This chapter looks at the data analysis and results of the data for the research 

questions posed in the text, which ask about the economic and social impact of 

energy insecurity in South Africa, and what can be done to improve or mitigate 

further energy insecurity. The analysis of the data follows a cyclical process of data 

reduction, data display, and conclusion drawing/verification. The results are based 

on publicly obtained secondary data from papers, online databases, websites, and 

journals. 

 
4.1.1 South Africa’s Electrical Energy Access Data Analysis 

In 2020, 84.39% of the population in South Africa had access to electricity, a 0.61% 

decline from 2019 and 0.3% increase from 2018 (World Bank, 2020). Studies have 

shown that access to electricity has a positive effect on income inequality in South 

Africa (Sarkodie, Adams, 2020). Globally, 770 million people still lack access to 

electricity, mostly in Africa and Asia (IEA, 2022). Low access to electricity is also 

linked to income inequality in South Africa (Sarkodie, Adams, 2020).  

 

In South Africa, 85 percent of the nation's electricity is generated via coal-fired 

power plants (world Bank, 2020), while renewable sources such as solar and wind 

account for only a small fraction of the total energy production (world Bank, 2020). 

South Africa has one of the highest rates of electricity access in sub-Saharan Africa 

(IEA, 2019).  

 

To understand the impact the energy insecurity has in the South African population 

at large, we need to undestand how much of the population has access to electricity, 

and this data is source from the World Bank, Eskom Holdings and as well as DMRE 

as referenced.  

A significant majority of the South African population has legal access to electricity 

as it can be observed on Figure 4 below, this excludes all the illegal connections.  



 

 
32 

 

Figure 3: Access to Electricity in South Africa as a % of Population 

Sources: https://data.worldbank.org/, Eskom and http://www.energy.gov.za/ 

Prior to the end of apartheid in 1993, just 36% of the population had access to 

electricity as a result of Racial Exclusion (RSA Parliament, 1994). Rural vs Urban 

population who had access to electricity around 1996 was at 23,8% vs 85,3% 

respectively (RSA Parliament, 1994). Between 1994 & 2016, ESKOM, under the 

ANC Government increased access to over 88% of the country’s population (INEP, 

2022). 

Figure 5 below indicates where South Africa is, when compared to the aggregated 

data of middle-income countries bracket. It can be observed that it is has been in 

line with them, although since 2011 it has fallen behind and this could be linked to 

a number of elements, ranging from population increase, the energy insecurity 

challenges that began in 2007, financial, political and investment challenges the 

country is facing, but not limited to these, as there could be a number of reasons. 

https://data.worldbank.org/
http://www.energy.gov.za/


 

 
33 

 

Figure 4: Access to Electricity in South Africa as a % of Population vs middle 

income countries aggregated data  

Sources: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/, http://www.energy.gov.za/ 

and https://www.iea.org/  

 

4.1.2 South Africa’s Electrical Energy Generation Data Analysis 

Eskom Holdings SOC (Ltd) is South Africa's national electricity generating, 

transmitting and distribution company. It is a vertically integrated utility across its 

operations that serves South Africa and the Southern African Development 

Community (SADC) area with power.  

Utilizing resources from the natural environment, such as coal, nuclear fuel, diesel, 

as well as water and the wind, Eskom generates more than 90% (205 688 

GigaWatt-hours, GWh) of the electricity delivered to a wide variety of clients in 

South Africa and the surrounding region (Eskom, 2022). It owns and operates many 

coal-fired, gas-fired, hydroelectric, pumped-storage, and one nuclear power station 

(Eskom, 2022). 

The power generated by Eskom and IPPs, together with imports from neighbouring 

countries, is delivered in bulk to distributors, i.e., Eskom Distribution, Municipalities, 

https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/
http://www.energy.gov.za/
https://www.iea.org/


 

 
34 

and big Metropolitans as well as dispersed to industrial, commercial, residential, 

and other consumers through transmission and distribution networks (Eskom, 

2022).  

South Africa's electricity production is primarily based on coal, In 2021, coal 

accounted for 84.4% of electricity production in South Africa (Stats SA,2023), while 

clean energy sources accounted for 13.7%. In 2022, coal was expected to fall to 

below 60% of electricity production as Eskom's coal-fired power plants are phased 

out. Coal is currently the mainstay of the South African energy system, meeting 

around 70% of installed power generation capacity, and comprises around 80% of 

the country's energy mix (IEA, 2020). Other sources of electricity generation in 

South Africa include nuclear power (5%), hydro power (2%), and renewable energy 

sources such as wind, solar, and biomass (16%) (IEA, 2020 ). South Africa's total 

domestic electricity generation capacity is 58,095 megawatts (MW) 

In December 2022, electricity generation (production) declined by 8.3% annually. 

The total amount of power generated in 2022 was 3.9% less than in 2021 (Stats 

SA, 2023). The yearly power output decline of 3.9% follows increases of 2.0% in 

2021 and 5.2% in 2020 (Stats SA, 2023). 

Figure 6 below, shows the amount of electricity South Africa generates, and it can 

be seen that from the 1990s the generation of electricity was increasing, even 

though there was a slight from 1997, it can be observed that it started increasing 

again from the year 2001, until it hit the all time high of 263,48 TWh (TeraWatt-

hours) in 2007, when actually our electricity loadshedding challenges began, when 

the generation capacity was first exceeded by the demand. After that highest 

generation, the decline started and with minor increaments, and more declines 

continuing to 244,32 TWh in 2021. 



 

 
35 

 

Figure 5: Electricity generation profile of South Africa 

Sources: Own analysis based on based on five main sources: Eskom (2022) , BP 

Statistical Review of World Energy, Ember Yearly Electricity Data (2022), and 

Ember European Electricity Review (2022), Our World in Data (2021) 

It should be noted that the trends for South Africa differ slightly by 7% to 8% from 

the year 2000, it is unclear why the databases of BP Statistical Review of World 

Energy and Our World in Data differs. The higher output values have been used for 

the analysis above as Eskom database also confirmed the higher outputs. 

The trends of South Africa as compared with the aggregated values of the lower 

and upper middle-income countries are increasing prior 2007, but it can be 

observed that the South African trend start dropping from 2007 till to date, while the 

cumulative aggregated trends for the whole middle-income countries continue an 

upward trend, as required, to maintain the security of the electricity energy supply 

as populations of these countries increases. 

Figure 7 below, take this a step further where the electricity generated is looked at 

from a perspective of each individual in the population. It can be seen that electricity 

generation per capita has been dropping, since 2007, as expected based on very 

little additional generation capacity as the population increases, although one 

expects the decreasing rate should be low. 

https://www.eskom.co.za/eskom-divisions/gx/
https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/energy-economics/statistical-review-of-world-energy.html
https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/energy-economics/statistical-review-of-world-energy.html
https://ember-climate.org/data-catalogue/yearly-electricity-data/
https://ember-climate.org/insights/research/european-electricity-review-2022/
https://ourworldindata.org/energy


 

 
36 

 

Figure 6: Average Annual Electricity generation profile per capita of South Africa 

Sources: Own analysis based on based on five main sources: Eskom (2022) , BP 

Statistical Review of World Energy, Ember Yearly Electricity Data (2022), and 

Ember European Electricity Review (2022), Our World in Data (2021)  

The highest per capita electricity generation was achieved in 2007 at a value of 

4937 kWh and at the end of 2021, it was sitting at 3758 kWh, this is an indication 

of the energy insecurity challenges that the country is faced with, while the 

population and demand keeps rising. If the South African trend can be compared 

with an aggregate of the upper and lower-middle income countries, the declining 

trend for south Africa is clearly visible.  

It can also be observed that the year 2017 was the year where South Africa’s per 

capita electricity generation started becoming lower than the aggregated of the 

upper middle-income countries and has been declining continuously. 

Figure 8 below indicates the contribution of electricity as a share of primary energy 

for South Africa, and can be seen to be between 15 to 19%, with the hightest share 

of 18,12% corresponding to the highest levels of electricity generated which is in 

year 2007.  

https://www.eskom.co.za/eskom-divisions/gx/
https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/energy-economics/statistical-review-of-world-energy.html
https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/energy-economics/statistical-review-of-world-energy.html
https://ember-climate.org/data-catalogue/yearly-electricity-data/
https://ember-climate.org/insights/research/european-electricity-review-2022/
https://ourworldindata.org/energy


 

 
37 

 

Figure 7: Electricity as a share of Primary Energy Supply 

Sources: Own analysis based on based on five main sources: Eskom (2022) , BP 

Statistical Review of World Energy, Ember Yearly Electricity Data (2022), and 

Ember European Electricity Review (2022), Our World in Data (2021)  

It can also be seen on the Figure 9 above, that since 2007, the share of electricity 

from the primary energy sources has been declining, inline with the declining 

average annual electricity generation profile in Figures 6 & 7. Lastly Figure 9 shows 

the share in percentage of electricity generated by different primary sources availbe 

to South Africa. It can be observed that Electricity genaration is dominated by Coal, 

followed by Nuclear. Production from Coal in 1985 was 94,36% and in 2021 it was 

86,35% and from Nuclear it was 3,70% in 1985 and 5,44% in 2021.   

https://www.eskom.co.za/eskom-divisions/gx/
https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/energy-economics/statistical-review-of-world-energy.html
https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/energy-economics/statistical-review-of-world-energy.html
https://ember-climate.org/data-catalogue/yearly-electricity-data/
https://ember-climate.org/insights/research/european-electricity-review-2022/
https://ourworldindata.org/energy


 

 
38 

 

Figure 8: Share of Electricity generation/production by primary source 

Sources: Own analysis based on based on five main sources: Eskom (2022) , BP 

Statistical Review of World Energy, Ember Yearly Electricity Data (2022), and 

Ember European Electricity Review (2022), Our World in Data (2021)  

It is clear from the data that the generated electricity has been declining and this 

shouldn’t be the case, unless ofcourse the demand/consumption has also been 

declining. Has the demand been declining?  

The nation can produce 235 TWh of energy domestically, which is over 113% of its 

own energy demands (World Data Info, n.d.). South Africa uses coal, natural gas, 

oil, and renewables such as hydroelectricity and solar power as energy sources 

(Our World in Data, n.d.).   

4.1.3 South Africa’s Electrical Energy Consumption Data Analysis 

Since the early 1990s, South Africa's power usage has climbed dramatically 

(Inglesi-Lotz & Blignaut, 2011). In 2021, the South African average per capita power 

usage was around 3,688 kWh, which was about 10 times the average consumption 

of the Sub-Sharan Afraica (Enerdata, n.d.). This was down from 3,949 KWh per 

capita in 2019, as reported by the World Bank (n.d.). The peak was in 2007 for both 

the total consumption (243 TWh) and the per capita consumption (4873 kWh).  

https://www.eskom.co.za/eskom-divisions/gx/
https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/energy-economics/statistical-review-of-world-energy.html
https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/energy-economics/statistical-review-of-world-energy.html
https://ember-climate.org/data-catalogue/yearly-electricity-data/
https://ember-climate.org/insights/research/european-electricity-review-2022/
https://ourworldindata.org/energy


 

 
39 

In December 2022, the distribution (consumption) of electricity declined by 7.6% 

annually. In 2022, total power distribution was 2.8% less than in 2021. The yearly 

decline in power distribution of 2.8% follows increases of 2.3% in 2021 and 5.0% in 

2020. 

According to Figure 10, below the country’s consumption of 219,06 TWh occurred 

in 2021, where renewable energy was comprising 10.5% of real consumption 

(World Data Info, n.d.).  Electricity demand is the sum of total electricity generation 

and imports and exports of electricity.  

 

Figure 9: Electricity Total & Per Capita Consumption in South Africa vs Middle-

Income Countries 

Sources: Own analysis based on based on five main sources: Eskom (2022) , BP 

Statistical Review of World Energy, Ember Yearly Electricity Data (2022), and 

Ember European Electricity Review (2022), Our World in Data (2021) , World 

Bank Open Data, (n.d.)  

The industrial sector is the largest consumer of electricity in South Africa, 

consuming up to 52% of electricity consumption (Enerdata, n.d.) in 2021.  This is 

preceded by the residential (20%) and commercial services (15%) sectorsand 13% 

Others  (Enerdata, n.d.). In 2021, petroleum products contributed for 6% of the 

sector's overall energy consumption. 

https://www.eskom.co.za/eskom-divisions/gx/
https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/energy-economics/statistical-review-of-world-energy.html
https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/energy-economics/statistical-review-of-world-energy.html
https://ember-climate.org/data-catalogue/yearly-electricity-data/
https://ember-climate.org/insights/research/european-electricity-review-2022/
https://ourworldindata.org/energy


 

 
40 

The International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts that South Africa's power final 

energy consumption would rise from 2018 to 2040 under all scenarios (IEA, 2022). 

Under the Stated Policies Scenario, the final energy consumption of electricity is 

anticipated to rise from 441 TWh in 2018 to 436 TWh in 2040 (IEA, 2022). 

4.1.4 South Africa’s Economic Data Analysis  

4.1.4.1 South Africa’s GDP and Inflation rate Analysis 

The South African economy has underperformed over the previous decade, with a 

lower GDP (Gross Domestic Product) per capita in 2019 than it was in 2008 (OECD, 

2022). Approximately over 35% unemployment persists as a high rate (OECD, 

2022). In the twenty years since 1994 to 2014, South Africa has had exceptional 

economic growth (Coleman, 2014), transforming from an apartheid state to a 

country with an upper-middle income (Coleman, 2014).  

The GDP of South Africa increased by 1.6% in the 3rd quarter of 2022, following a 

0.7% decline in the 2nd quarter (Stats SA, 2022).  

 
Figure 10: GDP in Quarter-on-Quarter % change 2018 to 2022 

Source: Stats SA. 

https://www.statssa.gov.za/publications/P0441/GDP%202022%20Q3%20(Media

%20presentation).pdf 

https://www.statssa.gov.za/publications/P0441/GDP%202022%20Q3%20(Media%20presentation).pdf
https://www.statssa.gov.za/publications/P0441/GDP%202022%20Q3%20(Media%20presentation).pdf


 

 
41 

Not only does the 1.6% increase in the third quarter return the economy to pre-

pandemic levels, but the quarterly real GDP now stands at the highest it has ever 

been, surpassing the previous top of R1,152 billion established in the 4th quarter of 

2018 (Stats SA, 2022). Eight of the 10 industries' economic production increased in 

the 3rd quarter of 2022 (Stats SA, 2022).  Agriculture, forestry, and fishing 

increased by 19.2%, the most positive contribution. This was mostly due to an 

increase in the output of agricultural production and horticultural goods (Stats SA, 

2022). 

 

Figure 11: Real GDP (constant 2015 prices) Economic Recovery from COVID-19 

Source: Stats SA. 

https://www.statssa.gov.za/publications/P0441/GDP%202022%20Q3%20(Media%20pres

entation).pdf 

The epidemic impeded economic expansion for almost two years. In the 1st quarter 

of 2022, real GDP surpassed pre-pandemic levels (Figure 11). The economy 

contracted by 0.7% in the 2nd quarter, mostly as a result of significant floods in 

KwaZulu-Natal. 

South African rate of GDP growth has averaged 0.62% from 1993 to 2022, hitting 

a peak of 13.8% in the 3rd quarter of 2020 (Trading Economics, n.d.). Private 

consumption and investment are anticipated to continue to be the primary growth 

https://www.statssa.gov.za/publications/P0441/GDP%202022%20Q3%20(Media%20presentation).pdf
https://www.statssa.gov.za/publications/P0441/GDP%202022%20Q3%20(Media%20presentation).pdf


 

 
42 

drivers, with the GDP growing 1.7%, 1.1%, and 1.6% in 2022, 2023, and 2024, 

respectively (OECD, 2022). 

Over the previous two decades, South Africa's inflation rate has ranged between 

0.7% and 18.7%. The inflation rate in 2020 was 3.28%, in 2019 it was 4.12 %, and 

in 2018 it was 4.6% (Stats SA,2022). The average annual rate of inflation for 2022 

was 6.9%, up from 4.5% in 2021 (Stats SA,2022). 

 

 

Figure 12: South Africa’s Real GDP vs Inflation rate  

 Source: International Monetary Fund (IMF), https://www.imf.org/en/Countries/ZAF 

Deloitte predicts that South Africans have lost GDP due to power outages (energy 

insecurity) until October 2022 (Marais & Jinabhai, 2022). Under the baseline 

scenario, the South African rand is expected to average R16.90/$ this year (PwC, 

n.d.), while the IMF forecasts a real GDP growth of 1.2% for 2023 (IMF, 2023). The 

World Bank predicts that Sub-Saharan Africa's economic growth would decrease 

from 4.1% in 2021 to 3.3% in 2022 due to a slowing global economy and increasing 

inflation (World Bank, 2022). 

 

https://www.imf.org/en/Countries/ZAF


 

 
43 

4.1.4.2 South Africa’s Unemployment Rate Data Analysis 

According to Statista, South Africa's unemployment rate peaked at 33.56% in 2021 

(Statista, 2022). According to Bloomberg, South Africa's rate of unemployment is 

one of the highest in the world, with an enlarged definition of 43.1% (Bloomberg, 

2022).  

According to Trading Economics, South Africa's rate of unemployment in the 

second quarter of 2022 was 33.9% (Trading Economics, 2022), whereas 

Macrotrends claims it was 28.46% in 2019 (Macrotrends, 2020). In the 1st quarter 

of 2022, according to Statistics South Africa, the rate of unemployment for 

individuals aged 15 to 24 was 63.9% (Stats SA, 2022a). The increased definition of 

unemployment among 15–34-year-olds was 50.4%. (Stats SA, 2022a). 

The Figures 14, and 15 depicts graphically the South African unemployment rate 

from two different sources. 

 

Figure 13: RSA unemployment rate 1980 to 2022, with prediction to 2026 

Source: IMF (2022) 



 

 
44 

 

Figure 14: RSA unemployment rate 2022 to 2021 

Source: World Bank, and Statista (2022). 

Millions of people have lost their employment due to the COVID-19 epidemic, 

whereas the number of discouraged workers has skyrocketed (OECE, 2022). Prior 

to the crisis, investment was already declining due to policy instability and a lack of 

vital infrastructure (OECE, 2022). Multiple regulatory constraints pose a danger to 

the recovery (OECE, 2022). To set the government borrowing trajectories on a 

sustainable route and to finance significant unmet requirements in education, 

health, and social expenditures, stronger growth is required. 

The high unemployment rates in South Africa, especially among young people, are 

quite concerning. The South African government has launched several measures 

and programmes in an effort to lower the country's high unemployment rate, 

although these have not yet been wholly effective (Bloomberg, 2022). 

 

4.1.5 South Africa’s Social Data Analysis 

4.1.5.1 Population and Annual change Data Analysis 

The predicted South Africa's population in 2021 was 60,14 million (Stats SA, 

2021)  with an annual growth rate of 1.28 percent (Stats SA, 2021). This is a 2.278% 

growth from 2020.  

 



 

 
45 

In South Africa, population growth is anticipated to continue, but at a slightly slower 

pace than in the preceding century, with the annual growth rate falling below 1% by 

2023 (Stats SA, 2021). 

 

Figure 15: RSA population vs population annual change 1984 to 2021 

Source: World Bank, and Our World In Data (2022). 

 

 

 Figure 16: RSA population 1980 to 2022 and projection to 2027 

Source: IFM (2022). 

 



 

 
46 

Between 2022 and 2027, the overall population is projected to increase by 4,8 

million people (+7.86%) (Stats SA, 2021), but the population growth is projected to 

decline by more than half to 0.3% (Stats SA, 2021). 

 

4.1.5.2 South Africa’s Poverty Data Analysis 

According to the World Bank, (n.d.) in 2018, the South African poverty threshold at 

national poverty limits was 56.9%, In 2019, the proportion was 55.5%, while in 2020, 

it was 54.7%. In 2021, the adult poverty headcount rate was 46.1% for men and 

52.0% for females, and it is anticipated to reach 54.7% by 2022 (world bank, 2022). 

The level of poverty in South Africa has been decreasing over the past few years. 

This can be attributed to the government’s efforts to address issues such as limited 

access to essential services, and food insecurity. These policies have resulted in 

an increase in household incomes and improved access to basic services. The 

poverty rate is expected to decrease further in the coming years as more 

government initiatives are implemented. Although the biggest issue of 

unemployment remains and is accelerating the poverty levels. 

4.1.6 South Africa’s Environment Data Analysis 

South Africa was ranked the world's 14th largest emitter of greenhouse gases 

(GHGs) (Carbon Brief,2018). Its CO2 emissions are mainly due to burning fossil 

fuels (Coal) for energy production and industrial activities (Carbon Brief,2018). In 

2021, South Africa emitted 435 million metric tons of carbon dioxide (MtCO₂) 

emissions from fossil fuel combustion and industrial purposes (Statista, 2023). Per 

capita, South Africa's CO2 emissions are equivalent to 6.95 tons per person 

(Statista, 2023).  

 



 

 
47 

 

Figure 17: RSA Carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions from fossil fuels and industry 

Source: Our World in Data, (n.d), https://ourworldindata.org/co2/country/south-

africa 

 

South Africa has taken steps to address climate change, including policy 

frameworks relating to climate change adaptation, data monitoring and surveillance 

of climate change, cutting carbon emissions and promoting resilience to climate 

change (World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal, 2020; Climate Watch, 

2019), as well as considering the impact of climate change in court cases such as 

EarthLife Africa Johannesburg v Minister of Environmental Affairs and Others (van 

der Bank, Karsten, 2020). 

Climate change in South Africa is expected to raise temperatures by 2-4 degrees 

Celsius by the end of the century (van der Bank, Karsten, 2020), leading to 

increased water scarcity, pest infestations, droughts and floods (Climate Watch, 

2019). It could also lead to thousands of species becoming extinct and have 

negative impacts on health, human settlements and food insecurity (World Bank 

Climate Change Knowledge Portal, 2020). 

 

 

https://ourworldindata.org/co2/country/south-africa
https://ourworldindata.org/co2/country/south-africa


 

 
48 

4.1.7 South Africa’s Political Data Analysis 

South Africa's political landscape plays a significant role in shaping energy security 

and addressing energy insecurity challenges. Based on the above data from 

different sources, a political landscape can be summaried. 

The energy insecurity in South Africa, characterized by fluctuations in electricity 

access, generation, and consumption, has several political implications. The heavy 

reliance on coal-fired power plants contributes to environmental concerns and 

potential climate change impacts. The lack of diversification in energy sources 

hampers the country's transition to cleaner and more sustainable energy options. 

The declining electricity generation per capita indicates challenges in meeting the 

growing energy demands of the population. 

These energy insecurity issues can have social and economic consequences, 

including income inequality and limited access to reliable electricity for certain 

communities. The reliance on coal also poses challenges for reducing carbon 

emissions and addressing climate change commitments. 

To mitigate energy insecurity, South Africa needs to diversify its energy mix, 

promote renewable energy sources, improve energy efficiency, and invest in 

infrastructure and technology for a more reliable and sustainable energy system. 

This would require policy reforms, investment incentives, and international 

cooperation. 

1. Energy Policy and Governance: South Africa's energy sector is highly 

influenced by political decisions, policies, and regulations. The government's 

energy policies, such as the Integrated Resource Plan (IRP), National Energy 

Efficiency Strategy, and Renewable Energy Independent Power Producer 

Procurement Program (REIPPPP), have a direct impact on the country's energy 

mix, energy access, and energy security. 

2. Energy Infrastructure Development: The government's role in infrastructure 

development is crucial for ensuring energy security. In South Africa, major 

energy infrastructure projects, such as the construction of power plants, 



 

 
49 

transmission lines, and renewable energy installations, require political support, 

regulatory frameworks, and financial investment. Political stability and policy 

consistency are essential for attracting private investments and driving 

infrastructure development. 

3. State-Owned Enterprises (SOEs): South Africa's energy sector is closely 

linked to state-owned enterprises such as Eskom (electricity generation and 

transmission) and PetroSA (oil and gas). These entities are responsible for 

providing essential energy services to the country. However, political 

interference, mismanagement, and governance challenges within SOEs have 

sometimes resulted in energy supply disruptions and inefficiencies, contributing 

to energy insecurity. 

4. Socio-Political Factors: Energy insecurity in South Africa is often intertwined 

with socio-political challenges, including income inequality, unemployment, and 

access to basic services. Political decisions and policies aimed at addressing 

these issues, such as social grants, job creation initiatives, and rural 

electrification programs, can have a significant impact on energy access and the 

overall energy security situation. 

5. International Relations and Energy Cooperation: South Africa's energy 

security is also influenced by its international relations and energy cooperation. 

Political engagements with neighboring countries, international organizations, 

and energy partners shape cross-border energy trade, energy investments, and 

regional energy integration efforts. Collaborative initiatives, such as the 

Southern African Power Pool (SAPP), aim to enhance energy security and 

access in the region. 

 

 

 

 



 

 
50 

4.2 Conclusion 

The data and study shows that prior to the end of apartheid in 1993, just 36% of the 

population had access to electricity as a result of Racial Exclusion. In 2020, 84.39% 

of the population in South Africa had access to electricity, a 0.61% decline from 

2019 and 0.3% increase from 2018. In 2021, coal accounted for 84.4% of electricity 

production in South Africa, while clean energy sources accounted for 13.7%. Other 

sources of electricity generation in South Africa include nuclear power (5%), hydro 

power (2%), and renewable energy sources such as wind, solar, and biomass 

(16%). South Africa's total domestic electricity generation capacity is 58,095 

megawatts (MW).  

The industrial sector is the largest consumer of electricity in South Africa, 

consuming up to 52% of electricity consumption in 2021. 

The study also shows that electricity generation per capita has been dropping since 

2007, when the energy insecurity challenges began. The highest per capita 

electricity generation was achieved in 2007 at a value of 4937 kWh and at the end 

of 2021, it was sitting at 3758 kWh. The share of electricity from the primary energy 

sources has been declining since 2007, and coal is currently the mainstay of the 

South African energy system, meeting around 70% of installed power generation 

capacity, and comprises around 80% of the country's energy mix.  

The South African economy has underperformed over the previous decade, with a 

lower GDP (Gross Domestic Product) per capita in 2019 than it was in 2008.  



 

 
51 

CHAPTER 5: DISCUSSIONS OF RESULTS AND 
                      OBSERVATIONS. 

5.1 Introduction 

The previous chapter covered the data analysis used for the study. This chapter will 

cover the discussions of the results, observations, and findings from the secondary 

data, the economic and social impacts of energy insecurity in South Africa, which 

will assist in answering research questions and recommending the potential 

solutions to address the issue and proposed energy mix policy solution. 

 

5.2 Discussion on Electricity Access, and Socio-Economic & 

Environmental impact 

Access to electricity is critical for economic growth and development in South Africa 

(Sarkodie, Adams, 2020). Increasing levels of growth in income improve access to 

electricity, which can contribute to job creation and economic growth (Ndlovu, 

2013).  

 

Access to power catalyses economic development in rural areas and creates more 

jobs and new industries (World Bank, 2020). Without reliable access to energy, it 

poses a key barrier to economic development in emerging economies (World Bank, 

2020). When electricity access to the population is increased, it needs to be 

balanced with additional generation capacity to cater for the additional load being 

added to the grid. 

 

Access to abundant, affordable, secure, safe, and clean energy is beneficial for 

societies, but energy extraction and processing always involve some forms of 

environmental disruption, including air pollution, climate change, water pollution, 

thermal pollution, land degradation, and more (Stern, 2004). Renewable energy 

sources can reduce the environmental impact of energy systems (Kumar, 2020), 

but they also come with their own set of social and economic impacts (Kumar, 

2020).  

 



 

 
52 

The limitations of lack of access to electricity includes but is not limited to impeded 

businesses and no job creation and growth which negatively affects societies. 

Access to energy is essential for security, climate change, food production, and 

strengthening economies while protecting ecosystems (Energy Education, n.d.). 

A question that may arise may be whether there is a means to give electricity access 

that enriches everyone equally?  

 

There are several ways to make access to electricity more equitable for everyone. 

This includes implementing progressive pricing structures, expanding grid access 

to underserved and marginalized communities, investing in renewable energy 

sources that can be locally owned and operated, providing education and training 

programs, and implementing policies to support energy efficiency and conservation.  

 

Achieving equitable access to electricity will require a combination of policy, 

technical, and social solutions that are tailored to the specific needs and contexts 

of different communities. 

 

5.3 Discussion Energy Generation, Consumption and Socio-

Economic & Environmental impact 

Eskom, the state-owned power utility in South Africa, has been facing a number of 

challenges that have contributed to the country's energy insecurity problem that 

affects social, environmental, and economic aspects of the country. 

 

Electricity generation and consumption in South Africa has declined due to a variety 

of factors, including aging infrastructure, lack of maintenance and investment, and 

a lack of new power generation projects (PSA, 2015). The situation has been 

exacerbated by the ongoing financial and operational problems at Eskom (PSA, 

2015), leading to a decrease in economic development and growth (ITA, 2021). The 

lack of investment in this area has led to frequent power outages and a lack of 

reliability in the power supply, which has a negative impact on businesses, 

households, and the economy as a whole. 

 



 

 
53 

There is a strong relationship between energy availability and economic growth, 

and studies have established the relationship between energy consumption and 

economic growth according to the energy Kuznets curve (Dai et al., 2022), while 

others have found that developing countries heavily rely on electricity consumption 

for economic growth regardless of oil prices (Koščak Kolin et al., 2021) and that 

access to energy is necessary for growth. Additionally, the centuries-old linkage 

between economic growth and primary energy demand is beginning to decouple 

(Sarkodie & Adams, 2020), while energy abundance can also be a limiting factor or 

essential input to growth. 

There is a strong positive correlation between energy availability and GDP growth 

(Burke et al., 2018) (Dai et al., 2022). Studies have found that energy use and GDP 

are positively correlated, although energy intensity has declined over time and is 

usually lower in richer countries (Stern, 2018). Additionally, higher levels of GDP 

are correlated with greater electricity use, access, and consumption (Burke et al., 

2018), while energy conservation measures may negatively affect economic growth 

(Asghar, 2008). 

Energy infrastructure can also contribute to economic development in several ways, 

such as serving as a key factor of production (Burke et al., 2018). Additionally, 

research suggests that there is a causal relationship between energy consumption 

and economic growth ((Zhixin & Xin, 2011). 

In recent years, the government has been pursuing an energy mix strategy, 

including the Renewable Energy Independent Power Producers Procurement 

Programme (REIPPPP) to boost the power generation capacity, and also to reduce 

the dependency on Eskom. This strategy aims to diversify the energy mix by adding 

more renewable energy sources to the grid, which is expected to increase the 

reliability of the power supply and reduce the cost of electricity. 

Eskom's power generation is heavily dependent on coal, which is a major source of 

greenhouse gas emissions and contributes to air pollution, this has led to a climate 

change environmental impact. 



 

 
54 

To restore investor confidence and rebuild economic development and growth, the 

South African government will need to take a number of steps. These include 

investing in new power generation projects, such as Nuclear, renewable energy 

sources such as solar and wind, as well as upgrading and maintaining existing 

infrastructure. Additionally, the government will need to address the financial and 

operational issues at Eskom and implement measures to improve the efficiency and 

reliability of the power grid. 

Another important step that the government can take is to implement policies that 

encourage private sector investment in the energy sector, such as tax incentives 

and regulatory reform.  

5.4 Discussion Stakeholder Theory  

To address energy insecurity and improve future energy security in South Africa, 

effective decision-making requires collective collaboration among these 

stakeholders. They need to come together to examine the challenges, identify 

shared goals, and develop strategies that prioritize meeting the nation's energy 

security needs. The focus should extend beyond decarbonization and consider the 

diverse needs of stakeholders involved in energy policy and implementation (Aly, 

et. al., 2019) 

Research Question 1: What has been the economic, social, political, and 

environmental impact of energy insecurity in South Africa? 

Based on the stakeholder theory and the analysis of the South African energy sector 

stakeholders,