Mobility in the Gauteng City-Region Edited by Chris Wray and Graeme Gotz Chapter contributions by Christo Venter, Willem Badenhorst, Guy Trangoš and Christina Culwick Published by the Gauteng City-Region Observatory (GCRO), a partnership of the University of Johannesburg, the University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, and the Gauteng Provincial Government. Mobility in the Gauteng City-Region July 2014 ISBN 978-0-602-620105-2 Edited by: Chris Wray and Graeme Gotz Chapter contributions: Graeme Gotz and Chris Wray Christo Venter and Willem Badenhorst Guy Trangoš Christina Culwick Other contributions: Background report commissioned from University of Johannesburg staff and students and contracted specialists: Tracey McKay, Zach Simpson, Kerry Chipp, Naeem Patel, Alutious Sithole and Ruan van den Berg Photographic images by Potsiso Phasha, Christina Culwick, ITL Communication & Design and various contributors to a photographic competition run by the Gauteng City-Region Observatory (GCRO) in 2013 (credits given with images) The image on page 104 is the copyright of Media Club South Africa and Gautrain; it may not be used for any promotional, advertising or merchandising use, and may not be materially altered, nor may its editorial integrity be compromised. Copyright © Gauteng City-Region Observatory (GCRO) Design and layout: www.itldesign.co.za Cover image: easterly view of the new rea vaya Bus rapid transit route along Kingsway avenue in JohannesBurg, linKing the university of JohannesBurg and the university of the witwatersrand Contents anthony gotz Chapter 1 Introduction: A new ‘golden era’ for transport planning? 1 Chapter 2 2011 GCRO Quality of Life Survey: Analysis of transport data 15 Chapter 3 Constructing a Quality of Transport Index: Gauteng’s priority townships 59 Chapter 4 New spaces of transport in the Gauteng City-Region: A Gautrain analysis 85 Chapter 5 Transitions to non-motorised transport in Gauteng 131 Chapter 6 A photo essay: Non-motorised transport – forging connections across space and society 153 References 170 Tables 172 Figures 172 original photo: theo Khuvutlu CHAPTER 1 IntroductIon: A new ‘Golden erA’ for trAnsport plAnnInG? 1 Introduction: A new ‘golden era’ for transport planning? graeme gotz and Chris wray A key factor in understanding a functional city-region is the daily flows of people between its constituent parts. The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), for example, regards the commuter field as a key criterion for defining the extent of a metro-region (OECD, 2011). Traffic flow is also an important urban efficiency concern, as congestion impacts the costs of doing business, which in turn affects regional competitiveness. Congestion is furthermore a key social issue, as long commutes on poorly maintained transit infrastructure affect the quality of life of residents. Transport affordability and access are critical development concerns: high day-to-day costs of travel, the unavailability of public transport in many peripheral areas, and poor home-to-work connections because of badly defined routes and weak intermodal integration all impact severely on the poor, especially in a sprawling city-region where poverty and spatial dislocation are often synonymous. In addition, transport can be a major driver of environmental problems such as air pollution and climate change if road-based modes lead to high carbon emissions. Alternatively, transport can lead to greater urban sustainability if, for example, a city’s metabolic rate of liquid fuel consumption can be reduced though measures that reduce car-based travel. Lastly, transport infrastructure, especially that developed for public transport, can have important symbolic and cultural effects, either working productively to bring people together in shared public space, or negatively to further entrench societal divisions. For all of these reasons it is important to delineate the existing flows of traffic across the Gauteng City-Region (GCR); to understand the challenges of transport efficiency, access and affordability; and to gauge the impact of key transport interventions like the Gautrain Rapid Rail Link, the Gauteng Freeway Improvement Programme and associated e-tolling, and municipal Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) infrastructure. This report on Mobility in the Gauteng City-Region has been written in a remarkable moment in the history of transport development in Gauteng. On the one hand the region appears to be in a new ‘golden era’ of transit infrastructure design and investment, as well as long-term planning for ever-growing commuter transport needs. On the other hand, the transport difficulties faced by the GCR’s fast-growing population, as well as the many spatial, social, economic and environmental challenges that flow from the region-wide architecture of this population’s daily commuting, appear to be growing ever more acute. Mobility in the GautenG city-ReGion 2 1.1 A new ‘golden era’ for transport planning? At various points in its history the GCR’s urban form has been substantially shaped by large transport infrastructure investments. T. J. Fair and E. W. Mallows (1959) note how the intersection of three railway lines from the coast in the mid to late-1890s gave prominence to Germiston, and provided a ‘broad framework’ for the region’s future settlement pattern: “The polynuclear structure, the east-west mining axis and the north-south communications axis had emerged. The sum of these factors had produced the now clearly-defined cruciform nature of the structure built around these two dominant axes” (Fair and Mallows, 1959, p.130). Alan Mabin (2013, p.29) traces how in the late 1960s and 70s a decade of road-infrastructure focused highway planning led to “the demarcation of a veritable spaghetti of proposed freeway routes.” This intermetropolitan road network cemented the conception of a functional region, and shifted the region’s centres of gravity, providing structuring elements that by- passed some older centres while favouring development along key corridors in the north (Mabin, 2013). In the mid to late-2000s, after decades of underinvestment, the GCR appeared to enter a new, dramatically more energetic era of transit planning and road and public- transport infrastructure development. A host of recent major projects and innovative plans testify to this new ‘golden era’ of transport planning: • The Gautrain Rapid Rail Link. Led by the Gauteng Provincial Government (GPG), with a capital cost to date of some R25 billion, the Gautrain fast-rail network is one South Africa’s largest transport infrastructure investments. Eighty kilometres of track, 15km of it underground, and ten stations now knit together the city-region’s key urban centres. The O.R. Tambo International Airport to Sandton link in the system was opened just before the 2010 FIFA World Cup. The final leg of this phase, to Johannesburg’s Park Station, was launched in mid-2012. A further set of links that will connect the eastern parts of Pretoria, portions of the West Rand and Soweto are now being planned. • BRT. Various BRT systems – such as that illustrated on the front cover of this report – are being planned and implemented in Gauteng’s metropolitan municipalities: Ekurhuleni, Johannesburg and Tshwane. They are jointly funded by local and national government. The City of Johannesburg has implemented the first of these systems, the so-called Rea Vaya BRT. Construction started in 2007 and phase 1A – connecting Soweto and the Johannesburg inner city – was completed in 2009. Phase 1B was finalised in early 2014. It also connects the Johannesburg inner city to Soweto but runs to the north past the University of the Witwatersrand (Wits) and the University of Johannesburg (UJ). Construction on phase 1C, which will link Alexandra and Sandton to the existing network, was launched in April 2014. • Implementation of a Tshwane BRT system, to be named A Re Yeng, is also at an advanced stage. Construction started in April 2013, and a first seven kilometre leg will be completed in 2014. The first A Re Yeng bus was unveiled to the public in April 2014. • Passenger Rail Agency of South Africa (PRASA) rail modernisation. PRASA is undertaking a complete overhaul of its commuter rail systems in Gauteng, following many years of underinvestment. Indicatively, the last new trains procured for the South African passenger rail network were bought in the mid-1980s, and 98% of the current rolling stock is older than that (PRASA, 2012). In Gauteng, the modernisation programme will focus on the key Mabopane-Pretoria-Germiston-Johannesburg-Soweto corridor. It will see a combination of new rolling stock, the upgrading of track and signalling infrastructure and the redevelopment of stations. The delivery of the first of some 1 200 new train sets (with approximately 7 000 cars) is expected in 2015. These trains are to be procured over a 20-year period. A consortium, majority owned by Alstrom, will eventually produce the fleet locally in a new plant in Ekurhuleni. PRASA has also commissioned Siemens to upgrade the signalling system, with a R1 billion first phase set to be completed in 2016. Seventy-three stations in Gauteng will eventually be upgraded, with a number (such as Vereeniging, Germiston, Krugersdorp and Pretoria) identified for short-term investment. • Gauteng Freeway Improvement Project. Led by the South African National Roads Agency (SANRAL), the Gauteng Freeway Improvement Project is a multi-billion rand upgrade of Gauteng’s freeways. Initiated in 2007, the project has involved the widening of a number of highways and the redevelopment of key interchanges, which have historically been the cause of bottlenecks in traffic flow. Future phases of the project envisage further redevelopment and the construction of new freeway links. While it has already had a significant positive impact on congestion on the region’s highway network, the project has not been without controversy because of the associated electronic or ‘open-road’ tolling, meant to recoup the costs of the new infrastructure. The introduction of e-tolls has been marked by public protests and payment avoidance by many users. It might also be critiqued for being internally contradictory, encouraging, at the same time, more car- based travel through its improved road infrastructure as well as a shift to public transport through the taxing of road users. • Municipal Integrated Transport Plans (ITPs). Matching the large-scale infrastructure projects underway there has been a series of new generation transport plans developed in both local and provincial spheres of government. A number of municipal ITPs, as required by law, were formulated for the period 2003-2008, but these are now well out of date. However, Gauteng’s metropolitan municipalities are in the process of formulating updated ITPs, informed by a recent round of household travel surveys in each metro. • Long-term integrated transport planning. One of the main initiatives of the GPG over the last five years has been the development of 25-year Integrated Transport Master CHAPTER 1 IntroductIon: A new ‘Golden erA’ for trAnsport plAnnInG? 3 Plan (ITMP25). The IMTP25 vision is for “an integrated and efficient transport system in Gauteng that promotes sustainable economic growth, skills development and job creation, fosters quality of life, socially includes all communities and preserves the environment” (GDRT, 2013a, p.3). The plan provides a framework – although not an infallible blueprint, given low levels of intergovernmental coordination – to assist all three spheres of government to deliver a world class and sustainable transport system that prioritises public transport. The ITMP25 presents a paradigm shift in spatial and transport planning. It serves as a point of departure from apartheid spatial planning, land use and mobility, and ushers in an integrated and equitable transport value chain. It is underpinned by founding principles such as economic beneficiation; doing things in a ’smart’ and sustainable manner; and integrating transport networks, modes and services. ismael vadi, gauteng member of the executive council (meC) for roads and transport (gdrt, 2013a, p.x) The ITMP25 sets out eight long-term interventions (summarised in Table 1.1). Very significantly, the first two interventions – subsidised housing provision in core areas and land use densification – are not transport interventions in and of themselves. Rather, they are proposals for an urban form that both supports and is supported by viable public transport networks. This is a noticeable shift from the private car focused freeway planning of the 1960s and 1970s. Integrated transport options Land Use Development 1 subsidised housing provision within urban core areas 2 land use densification in support of public transport Strategic Public Transport Network 3 reinforcing passenger rail network as the backbone of the system 4 extending the integrated rapid and road-based public transport networks Freight Transport 5 strengthening freight hubs Road Transport 6 travel demand management 7 mainstreaming non-motorised transport 8 Continued provincial wide mobility table 1.1: gauteng 25-year integrated transport interventions (source: gdrt, 2013a, p.x) Mobility in the GautenG city-ReGion 4 Rail is regarded as the backbone of an integrated public transportation system, with key focus areas being strategic modal transfer nodes and interchanges and priority public transport corridors (see Figure 1.1 and Figure 1.2). Mainstreaming non-motorised transport (NMT) is also identified as one of the main interventions. • Short to medium-term key interventions. Within the ambit of the overarching ITMP25 planning process, GPG has devised an interim implementation plan to move on a number of interventions it regards as critical. This Five- Year Gauteng Transport Implementation Plan (GTIP5), approved in 2012, identifies 13 urgent short-term initiatives (summarised in Table 1.2) that are currently in the process of being implemented by the Gauteng Department of Roads and Transport (GDRT). Examples include the release for public comment of a draft policy, Promoting Sustainable (Green) Transport in Gauteng, and the launch of a GoGauteng mobile application to help commuters access scheduling information for a number of public transport services, both in April 2014. Initiatives and key focus areas 1. transport authority for gauteng 1.1 provincial-wide public transport information Centre 1.2 “one province one ticket” 2. integration with the Commuter rail Corridor modernisation project of prasa (passenger rail agency of south africa) 3. restructured subsidised road-based public transport 4. transformation of the taxi industry 5. greener public transport vehicles technologies 6. travel demand management, less Congestion and shorter travel times 7. access to major freight nodes 8. international and City airports 9. pedestrian paths and Cycle ways 10. Continued provincial wide mobility 11. effective management of existing transport infrastructure 12. regulation and enforcement 13. accessible transport table 1.2: imtp5 key short-term initiatives (source: gdrt, 2013a, p.xiii) CHAPTER 1 IntroductIon: A new ‘Golden erA’ for trAnsport plAnnInG? 5 • A Gauteng Transport Commission, en route to a Transport Authority. A crucial factor for the successful delivery of an integrated and efficient transport system is a set of institutional arrangements that ensure Gauteng- wide coordinated planning. The IMTP25 proposes the establishment of a Gauteng Transport Commission to advise on how to deal with the immediate transport issues in the province. This has been established and has begun its work, hosting a Cycling Indaba to promote NMT at the end of March 2014. It is envisaged that the commission will eventually evolve into a fully-fledged unitary Transport Authority for the GCR. This reflects a welcome city- regional approach to transport planning and is in line with the recommendations of the OECD Territorial Review of the GCR for a metropolitan transport authority to improve transport coordination and create a single ticketing system (OECD, 2011). • Integrated transport modelling. GDRT has identified the need for integrated land use and transportation planning and integrated planning tools to inform robust decision- making. A recent report on modelling urban spatial change highlighted the fragmented approach to transport modelling within Gauteng (Wray et al., 2013). Traditionally, GDRT has commissioned provincial transport modelling from transport consultants. There has also been a varied response to transport modelling at a local government level with a combination of outsourced and internal models and a range of proprietary software. The result has been a disjointed approach, limited modelling capacity and skills development within government, and a mismatch of macro and micro-scale modelling (CSIR, 2012). In 2012, terms of reference were issued by GDRT for the establishment of the Gauteng Integrated Transport Modelling Centre (GITMC). Its aim is to create a fully operational modelling centre, co-owned, co-funded and co- staffed by a range of provincial and municipal departments. It will provide high-end planning and modelling skills for a variety of macro and micro-modelling support services to role-players across the province (CSIR, 2012). The Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR), in conjunction with the University of Pretoria, have been appointed to set up the GITMC as a multi-year project. The centre will initially build on the data and models generated by the CSIR UrbanSim and MATSim software urban simulation project. It will formulate urban growth scenarios at a local and provincial level taking into account current and planned transport infrastructure initiatives. The centre is planned to be fully operational by 2014. It is widely argued that if policies towards spatial planning, infrastructure, and service delivery are devolved to the city- region level and coordinated across relevant local authority jurisdictions, they may improve the efficiency of labour and housing markets, streamline transport systems, and generate economic spin-offs through increased productivity, knowledge spill overs, and innovation. (turok, 2009, p.846) Mobility in the GautenG city-ReGion 6 figure 1.2: itmp25 proposed railway network (source: gdrt, 2013a, p.42)figure 1.1: itmp25 proposed public transport network (source: gdrt, 2013a, p.39) CHAPTER 1 IntroductIon: A new ‘Golden erA’ for trAnsport plAnnInG? 7 1.2 Key transport challenges While the current investments in transport infrastructure and the energy being put into new plans are both significant, the test of this ‘golden era’ of planning and development will be whether it makes a real and substantial impact on the GCR’s many transport, and associated social, economic and environmental challenges. The challenges are deep and structural, and in some important respects there is evidence of them intensifying. • Modal shifts to less sustainable modes of transport. The transport system designed in the 1960s and 1970s – based on the assumption that road-based transport will be the dominant form of commuting – is no longer optimal. However, over the decades it has facilitated a major shift in the dominant modes of transport in Gauteng. Interestingly, as shown in Table 1.3, the available survey evidence does not indicate a large proportional shift to private vehicles, even though the number of cars on the GCR’s roads has increased dramatically. In the 1970s half of all home-to- work trips were made by private cars. The proportion has dropped slightly to just above 40%. The more dramatic shift has been out of the conventional publicly owned and managed pubic transport systems – bus and rail – and into the privately owned form of public transport offered by minibus taxis (see Table 1.3). The main reason for this shift has been the continued deterioration in the quality and reliability of metropolitan commuter rail and bus services (GDRT, 2013a). While the Gautrain and BRT infrastructure investments aim to arrest this drift and provide more public transport choice, they will for the foreseeable future only address the needs of a limited social and demographic market, and will not do much to address the needs of poor and peripherally located households. Walk Rail Taxi Bus Private 1975 pretoria-witwatersrand-vereeniging (pwv) transportation survey 7% 20% 3% 22% 49% 1999/2003 1998/99 tshwane survey and 2002/03 gauteng transport survey for the gts 2000 survey 9% 6% 31% 6% 48% 2003 national household travel survey 11% 9% 31% 6% 42% 2009 gCro’s Quality of life (Qol) survey (gauteng results only) 10% 4% 41% 4% 41% 2011 gCro’s Qol survey 6% 5% 42% 3% 43% 2013 national household travel survey 13% 7% 30% 5% 44% table 1.3: modal split in mode of transport to work, 19751, 1999/20032, 20033, 20094, 20115 and 20136 (note: the surveys are not strictly comparable because of different samples and ways of asking questions; the results should be taken as indicative of broad patterns only) 1 PWV Transportation Survey, 1975. This was based on 10 080 households surveyed in the Pretoria area and a further 5 500 in the rest of the PWV area (Gauteng Department of Public Transport, Roads and Works, 2006). 2 The GTS 2000 data is based on two large transport surveys, a 7 569 sample Household Survey in and around Tshwane in 1998/99, combined with a 15 375 sample survey in the remainder of Gauteng in 2002/03. 3 This survey was conducted across the country in 2003. Of a national sample of 45 346 completed household surveys, 7 906 were enumerated in Gauteng (National Department of Transport, 2007). 4 Own workings from GCRO’s 2009 QoL Survey. These figures reflect respondents from Gauteng only. Only cases of respondents who travelled to work were selected, giving a working sample of 2 334 within the total Gauteng sample of 5 822. 5 Own workings from GCRO’s 2011 QoL Survey. Only cases of respondents who travelled to work were selected giving a working sample of 5 957 within a total Gauteng sample of 16 729 respondents. 6 This survey was conducted in 2013, with results released in March 2014. Gauteng saw a sample of 10 683 dwelling units (StatsSA, 2014). Mobility in the GautenG city-ReGion 8 • Ongoing sprawl and relatively low density development. The transport mode being used will reflect the choices of commuters over the quality of the services being offered, their affordability, and of course the ability of the networked services on offer to take them to their preferred destination. A very important consideration is overall access to a particular mode, usually established by means of data on how far a commuter needs to walk to the nearest service point, whether it be a bus stop, train station, or a taxi rank. It is conceivable that the infiltration of more agile minibus taxi networks into previously unserviced areas may be reducing average travel times for many residents. But the latest data from the National Household Travel Survey 2013 points to a worrying trend of greater walking times to public transport. In 2003, 11.3% of Gauteng home- to-work commuters walked more than 15 minutes to a public transport stop at the start of their journey. In 2013 this had increased to 17%. This suggests that even while public transport services are being improved, accessibility is declining (StatsSA, 2014). A key reason for this is the ongoing spatial distortions in the GCR’s settlement patterns. Massive Reconstruction and Development Programme (RDP) housing developments on the fringes of the city-region have not coincided with the provision of public transport in these areas, leading to inaccessible and poor access/poor mobility townships (see chapters 2 and 3 of this report). In addition, a swathe of gated communities has redefined residential landscapes in Gauteng over the last decade. Densities in these estates are too low to support a viable public transport network, but too high for the road network to cope given the inevitable generation of car-based trips. Current land use patterns and resulting traffic congestion are antithetical to sustainable long-term economic growth and development in Gauteng, and it is this that key interventions in the ITMP25 aim to correct (Van der Merwe, 2013). • Affordability. According to the OECD, commuting in GCR cities ranks as the least affordable in Africa, with 21% of monthly income spent on transport (OECD, 2011) – this prior to the introduction of e-tolling on upgraded highways. Latest evidence from the National Household Travel Survey released in March 2014 indicates that train commuters spent an average of R466 per month on this mode of transport; bus commuters spent R580 per month and taxi commuters R625 per month. By contrast, car drivers spent R1 727 per month. The survey also finds that 44% of Gauteng households had monthly household expenditures of less R1 800 (StatsSA, 2014). Indicatively this suggests that public transport costs were upwards of 26% of monthly household expenditures for nearly half of Gauteng households. • Still inadequate resources for transport infrastructure. The roll out of the Gautrain system and the municipal BRT initiatives by the metropolitan municipalities of Ekurhuleni, Johannesburg and Tshwane testify to the financial commitment of local, provincial and national government to invest significantly in new transport infrastructure in Gauteng. Transport Minister Dipuo Peters recently reported that more than R5 billion would be spent in 13 South African cities on planning, building and operating integrated public transport networks in the 2013/2014 financial year (Venter, 2013a). However, while current funding allocated to transport infrastructure and operations has grown rapidly over the last decade, it is still far from sufficient. Inadequate funding is one of the key challenges identified in the ITMP25. According to the project manager of the ITMP25 process, Jack van der Merwe, transport budgets ideally need to be doubled in the short term and increased to four times the current level over 25 years (Van der Merwe, 2013). • Poor intergovernmental coordination. Another constraint is the fact that the existing transport systems in the GCR are not well integrated, with overlapping roles of national, provincial and local transport departments and a lack of co- ordination between municipalities, leading to a fragmented approach to transport planning (OECD, 2011). A recent example of the lack of co-ordination between the transport departments within the GCR is a series of household travel surveys conducted in the three metropolitan municipalities in Gauteng. Each of the metros has run separate transport surveys to assist with formulating revised their ITPs. While some effort was made to standardise questionnaires and sample frames between the municipalities, each municipality by and large took its own approach in relation to sampling and the definition of destination points, which means there are likely to be limitations on data integration and aggregation. This has consequences for Gauteng-wide modelling required by GDRT and limits the analysis of the immense traffic flow between the metros as highlighted in Figure 1.4. CHAPTER 1 IntroductIon: A new ‘Golden erA’ for trAnsport plAnnInG? 9 figure 1.3: major transport infrastructure in the gCr (source: gauteng department of roads and transport) Mobility in the GautenG city-ReGion 10 • Insufficient GCR-wide planning. Transport planning also needs to take note of the wider GCR connections and daily external flow of both people and goods into and out of Gauteng. For example, the Moloto corridor connects a swathe of semi-urban settlements situated in the Thembisile and J.R. Moroka local municipalities in Mpumalanga on the north-eastern border of Gauteng. This corridor provides a vital connection for these settlements to the Gauteng economy through subsidised bus transport routes, which have historically ferried thousands of workers into central Pretoria on a long-distance daily commute. According to the National Minister of Transport, Dipuo Peters, “Commuters spend long hours in transit, with some, in extreme cases, spending up to seven hours per day on buses” (Venter, 2013a, p.1). figure 1.4: transport flows into and within the three gauteng metros according to 2011 Qol survey data CHAPTER 1 IntroductIon: A new ‘Golden erA’ for trAnsport plAnnInG? 11 1.3 Overview of this report This report is framed in the context of this remarkable moment, which sees enormous energy and resources being put into new and forward-thinking transport plans, as well as large-scale and often region-wide transit infrastructure, but also intensifying challenges. It is not within the scope of a report such as this to review every strategic intervention, nor critically assess every challenge. However, a wide-ranging analysis of the current ‘state of mobility’ in the GCR, and the impact of key infrastructures – or the consequences of their absence – is warranted. This report collects a number of papers written as part of a multi-year GCRO project on mobility in the GCR. The aim of the project was to: i) better understand the historical and current transport trends, based primarily on an analysis the GCRO’s own datasets, in particular the transport questions in a bi-annual QoL Survey; and ii) gauge the impact of key transport infrastructure interventions and the effects of a lack of infrastructure in some areas. In 2011 GCRO appointed UJ’s Department of Civil Engineering Science and Department of Geography, Environmental Management and Energy Studies, to carry out transport research in the GCR using the 2009 QoL Survey and previous transport surveys such as the GTS 2000 and the 2003 National Household Travel Survey. Key snippets from the UJ research (McKay and Simpson et al., 2013) appear in this report as extracts and boxes, providing an insightful historical perspective on transport challenges in the region. In 2012 Professor Christo Venter from the University of Pretoria was commissioned to develop a report for GDRT analysing data from the transport sections of the 2011 QoL Survey. This analysis is presented here as Chapter 2. The chapter examines transport patterns (including mode use, trip purposes, travel distances and speeds); satisfaction and perceived problems with transport; and the spatial variation of these patterns across the province. Data across municipalities and different types of urban settlement typologies are compared in order to identify underlying spatial factors affecting travel patterns. The chapter concludes by reflecting on the implications of the findings for transport planning and spatial development policy in Gauteng. This initial broad analysis of the 2011 QoL transport data is further extended in Chapter 3, where Christo Venter develops a ‘Quality of Transport’ (QoT) Index. The intention of the index is to provide a single measure reflecting residents’ everyday lived experiences of the quality of their transport in 20 ‘priority townships’ identified by the GPG. The construction of the index is driven by the understanding that transport access and connectivity issues are key to the quality of life enjoyed by residents in specific areas. Transport realities vary considerably across the city-region and the QoT Index gives a useful single measure of this variation. In Chapter 4, GCRO researcher Guy Trangoš provides a multi- scalar analysis of four Gautrain stations, interrogating the quality of the public realm created by the stations’ designs and their integration into the immediate surrounding precincts. The analysis is underpinned by a brief review of the historical context of transport planning and the development of spatial policies by local government in response to the implementation of the Gautrain infrastructure. Recommendations for similar projects in the future are offered in the closing section – valuable research to be considered by authorities should the proposed extensions to the Gautrain go ahead. An often ignored but, from a sustainability perspective, an increasingly important aspect of transport is NMT. This report concludes with two NMT chapters by GCRO researcher Christina Culwick. Chapter 5 explores the state of NMT in the GCR. It reviews the current policy environment supporting NMT; provides a demographic profile of typical NMT ‘users’, focusing on the poor who use NMT out of necessity rather than choice; and assesses current NMT infrastructure projects. In its conclusion the chapter highlights the transitions needed to facilitate greater uptake and a modal shift towards NMT as a legitimate component of an integrated transport system. The challenges and potential opportunities for the future of NMT in the city-region are visually portrayed in the form of a photo essay in Chapter 6, the final chapter of this report. Within the frame of the enormous scale of transport planning and infrastructure development underway, as well as the GCR’s many deep and enduring transport challenges, it is hoped that this report will make a contribution to understanding past and current trends, the impact of and (missed) opportunities in key infrastructure investments, and some of the key current priorities that need more attention in this new ‘golden age’ of transport planning. Not all transport dreams can be fulfilled: priorities are key. (npC, 2011, p.163) Mobility in the GautenG city-ReGion 12 Beyond ‘predict and provide’? insights from a comparison of historical surveys in an earlier phase of its ‘mobility in the gCr’ project, gCro commissioned a group of academics from uJ to analyse historical transport surveys, and to compare results from these with data from the gCro’s 2009 Qol survey. the academics, from uJ’s department of Civil engineering science and department of geography, environmental management and energy studies, worked with contracted experts and graduate students to assemble and interrogate the historical data, inter alia from the pwv transportation study of 1975. ultimately, the analysis concluded that the historical surveys were too different in scope and sampling methods for meaningful comparisons to be made with the more recent 2009 survey. nevertheless, the report – Mobility in context: overview and analysis of transportation data for Gauteng (1975-2009) – offered some important insights. these include: The old political regime (and, in some instances, the post-apartheid regime as well) adopted the ‘predict and provide’ method by which important decisions regarding the design and upgrade of transportation networks were made. However, the ‘predict and provide’ method relies heavily on the collection of reliable transportation data. One means of collecting such data is through the use of transport surveys. These surveys are then used to predict the challenges facing the transport sector so as to guide the development of solutions to these challenges. … Overall, the ‘predict and provide’ method has resulted in government simply providing more road infrastructure, with a specific focus on private vehicles and, as of late, trucking. The Gauteng Freeway Improvement Project is a recent example of this. It is crucial to start to question if this is an effective solution to the challenges facing commuters (Rodrigue, Comtois and Slack, 2006). It is argued here that, in order to successfully manage a region’s transport system, greater focus should be placed on implementing strategies that will limit growth in the number of motor vehicles on the road. … One strategy that can address this challenge is increasing the usage of public transport and another is re-thinking the urban planning models that have been in use. (mcKay and simpson et al., 2013, p.1) 13graeme gotz Mobility in the GautenG city-ReGion original photo: hao-ting wong Chapter 2 2011 gcro quality of life survey: analysis of transport data 15 2011 GCRO Quality of Life Survey: Analysis of transport data Christo venter and willem Badenhorst 2.1 Introduction The Gauteng City-Region Observatory (GCRO) has commissioned two Quality of Life (QoL) Surveys, in 2009 and 2011, which measured the socio-economic circumstances, perceptions of service delivery, values, psycho-social attitudes, and other characteristics of residents in the Gauteng City-Region (GCR). The two surveys asked respondents a series of questions about their trip-making behaviour and their perceptions of transportation in the city-region. The 2011 survey covered 16 729 sample points, with Global Positioning System (GPS) points at respondents’ houses and trip destination points captured from a suburb-level list. This chapter provides an analysis of the 2011 QoL Survey, with the main aim of providing an up-to-date picture of travel patterns and opinions regarding transport and mobility in the province. Apart from standard tabulations of travel patterns and opinions across user groups and municipalities, we undertake a more in-depth exploration of the realities of access and mobility across different types of settlements in Gauteng. 2.2 Key findings This section provides an overview of key transport-related findings for Gauteng from the 2011 QoL Survey, comparing the findings across municipalities wherever appropriate. All analysis is based on the weighted dataset and is thus representative of the surveyed population (18 years and older) at provincial and municipal level. Sections 2.2.1 - 2.2.5 refer to a single trip described by each respondent in the survey. Respondents were asked about “the trip that you make MOST often, that involves using transport (taxis or cars or trains and so on).” No information was gathered about the relative frequency of the trip (i.e. how often it is made), so aggregate statistics calculated on this sample of trips do not reflect the population of all trips in the province. However, the data are useful for comparing across subgroups of trips in the sample, such as trips by mode or trip purpose. Mobility in the GautenG city-ReGion 16 2.2.1 main trip purpose Firstly, only about half of the trips people regard as their most frequent trips are to work, followed by shopping (21% of trips) and looking for work (12% of trips). The conventional focus of transport planning, which is very oriented towards the trip to work, misses major components of daily mobility. Secondly, about 12% of the sample identified the trip to look for work as their most frequent trip. Travel to look for work is of major importance to a sizable number of people, yet has received little attention in policy or planning. The figures above differ slightly from the main trip purposes identified by the National Household Travel Survey (NHTS) for Gauteng in 2003 (Table 2.1). In this survey respondents were asked to identify the purpose of all trips made by all household members on a particular day, thus more accurately reflecting the true distribution of trip purposes. In particular, the GCRO QoL data undercount school travel, as it only relates to the most frequent trip of the respondent, who by definition in this survey was a household member 18 years and older, and not necessarily those of children in the household (refer to section 2.2.6 for more on school travel). 2.2.2 mode used for main trip purpose Respondents were asked which modes they used while making the most frequent trip. Figure 2.2 shows the mode used over the longest distance of that trip – referred to as the main mode from here onwards.7 9% other 48% work 12% look for work 6% education 21% shop 2% serve children 2% social/leisure figure 2.1: trip pupose of most frequent trip 7 Note that the figures do not necessarily correlate to the overall percentage of people using a particular mode. Chapter 2 2011 gcro quality of life survey: analysis of transport data 17 Cars and taxis8 dominate across all trip purposes. For getting to work, cars and taxis are equally important. Taxis are a very important mode for work-seekers, with almost three out of four work-seekers depending on a taxi. Taxis are also used for a variety of other purposes such as education and shopping/ leisure trips. Buses and trains play a minor role across all trip purposes. A relatively small share of most frequent trips are made by only walking. However, it is likely that the importance of walking is underrepresented here as it does not reflect the walking component to and from public transport. Furthermore, many respondents might not have thought of walking as ‘transport’ and therefore not reported walking trips even if they were the most frequent. Trip purpose % of household members naming purpose work 39.3% education 29.9% shopping 44.1% visiting 33.9% table 2.1: trip purposes of all household members, nhts 2003 (source: dot, 2005) figure 2.2: main mode used for most frequent trip all trips other shopping/leisure education look for work work 8 33 50 3 5 9 33 50 2 3 9 28 57 2 3 13 32 44 5 6 6 9 73 2 9 6 42 42 3 5 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 percentage walk Bicycle Car/motorbike taxi Bus/Brt train other 8 Taxis refer to minibus taxis. Mobility in the GautenG city-ReGion 18 To identify the incidence of multimodal trips, i.e. trips that make use of more than one mode, we examined the combinations of modes reported. Only 3.4% of respondents make use of both public transport and cars on their most frequent trip, probably reflecting the role of public transport as a ‘mode of captivity’ that is abandoned altogether as soon as a car is bought. Among multimodal trips from one public transport mode to another, taxi-and-train is the most common combination (10.6% of trips). Transferring between other combinations of modes is rare. Combination of modes % of respondents Walk only 10.2% Car only (driver or passenger) 29.7% Public transport only 56.7% taxi only 42.0% Bus only 1.9% train only 2.5% taxi and bus 0.6% taxi and train 10.6% Bus and train 0.1% Car and public transport 3.4% table 2.2: mode combinations (excluding ‘other’) To examine the distribution of public transport use across income groups, Figure 2.3 plots the answer to the question “Do you ever use public transport?” by monthly household income. It is clear that public transport use is very skewed towards lower income respondents, with 70% or more of people with household incomes below R6 400 per month using public transport. Above this income threshold of R6 400, public transport use drops off significantly to 60%, and then further to below 40% in the next bracket. The threshold of R6 400 evidently corresponds to the income level at which car ownership starts to become feasible, causing a shift away from public transport use. Two other observations are significant. Firstly, about 30% of people reporting no income do not use public transport at all, suggesting a tendency to walk or to curtail travel if public transport is unaffordable. Secondly, even in the highest income brackets, between 10% and 20% of people still use public transport, although this may not be daily, and might refer to Gautrain use. The implication is, however, that a willingness to use public transport exists among a portion of even the very affluent. figure 2.3: public transport use by monthly household income use public transport does not use public transport 100 80 60 40 20 0 n o in co m e r 1 - r 4 0 0 r 4 0 1 - r 8 0 0 r 8 0 1 - r 1 6 0 0 r 1 6 0 1 - r 3 2 0 0 r 3 2 0 1 - r 6 4 0 0 r 6 4 0 1 - r 12 8 0 0 r 12 8 0 1 - r 25 6 0 0 r 25 6 0 1 - r 51 2 0 0 r 51 2 0 1 - r 10 2 4 0 0 r 10 2 4 0 1 - r 20 4 8 0 0 r 20 4 8 0 1 o r m o re r es p o n se n o t g iv en p er ce n ta g e 71 29 83 17 86 14 81 19 82 18 76 24 58 42 34 66 21 79 13 87 22 78 16 84 65 35 Chapter 2 2011 gcro quality of life survey: analysis of transport data 19 2.2.3 trip purpose and mode use by sex Figure 2.4 examines differences in trip purposes (of the most frequent trip) between men and women in the sample. It shows that men tend to make more work trips (56% vs. 41% of trips), while women make significantly more trips to do shopping (27% vs. 14%), taking children to school (3% vs. 1%), and other (10% vs. 8%). This suggests that women in South African cities still tend to undertake more household-related travel, while men do more work travel. Women and men have similar proportions of travel looking for work, perhaps pointing to the mounting pressures women face to find employment as either the primary breadwinner or secondary worker in the family. figure 2.4: trip purpose of most frequent trip, by sex 8% other 56% work 13% look for work 6% education 14% shop 1% serve children 2% social/leisure 10% other 41% work 11% look for work6% education 27% shop 3% serve children 2% social/leisure male female Mobility in the GautenG city-ReGion 20 These differences in trip purposes between men and women also lead to differences in mode use. Figure 2.5 shows that women tend to use taxis more frequently for work, looking for work and shopping/leisure trips, as compared to men. Coupled with the higher incidence of shopping/leisure travel among women, this means that women make significantly more trips by taxi than men. Men tend to have a higher use of cars across all trip purposes. The implication is that any transport policies or interventions that affect the quality or cost of public transport services – especially taxis – have significant gender implications. 2.2.4 mode to work, by municipality Looking at the main mode for work trips by municipality (Figure 2.6) it is clear that mode use varies across different parts of the province. Cars are more important in the higher- income municipalities of Midvaal, Tshwane, Johannesburg and Mogale City, while taxis dominate elsewhere. Train use closely follows the availability of the Metrorail network in various parts of the province. figure 2.5: main mode used for most frequent trip, by sex percentage walk Bicycle Car/motorbike taxi Bus/Brt train other all trips (f) all trips (m) shopping/leisure (f) shopping/leisure (m) look for work (f) look for work (m) work (f) work (m) 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 6 10 69 12 6 8 77 7 10 31 53 3 9 27 59 7 30 8 37 46 6 54 4 6 38 47 5 7 46 38 5 Chapter 2 2011 gcro quality of life survey: analysis of transport data 21 figure 2.6: main mode used for work trips, by municipality 2.2.5 average travel time Respondents were asked to estimate how long it took them to reach their destination during the trip they undertook most frequently. Figure 2.7 and Figure 2.8 show the average travel time for the three main trip purposes by municipality. Reported travel times vary slightly across the metropolitan municipalities. Travellers in Tshwane travel longest to get to work, but shortest to shopping places. Johannesburg residents take the longest to travel to shopping destinations. Overall, though, the similarities in travel times are striking. Non-metro areas differ more significantly. West Rand residents (including Westonaria, Mogale, Merafong, and Randfontein) have shorter travel times to work/job search destinations, but longer shopping destination travel times, as compared to residents of Sedibeng District (Midvaal, Emfuleni and Lesedi). However, we would caution against drawing solid conclusions from this travel time data, as there is reason to doubt the accuracy of the travel times reported by respondents in this format (principally because the question wording did not follow standard practice in travel survey methodology, and the sample sizes for specific trip purposes in some municipalities are too small to support strong analysis). gauteng (n=5 955) westonaria (n=95) tshwane (n=1 399) randfontein (n=76) mogale (n=216) midvaal (n=49) meratong (n=143) lesedi (n=44) Johannesburg (n=2 217) emfuleni (n=450) ekurhuleni (n=1 265) 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 percentage walk Bicycle Car/motorbike taxi Bus/Brt train other 42 42 29 51 46 40 47 41 44 44 59 29 36 39 34 57 42 42 37 50 41 42 Mobility in the GautenG city-ReGion 22 figure 2.7: average travel time (minutes) for the three main trip purposes in metros figure 2.8: average travel time (minutes) for the three main trip purposes in district municipalities work look for work shopping ekhurhuleni Johannesburg tshwane 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 m in u te s 43 44 46 49 47 46 47 40 42 average travel time (minutes)average travel time (minutes) work look for work shopping west rand district sedibeng 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 42 47 45 52 34 44 m in u te s Chapter 2 2011 gcro quality of life survey: analysis of transport data 23 2.2.6 school travel The survey asked respondents specific questions about the travel conditions of school-attending children in the household (alternating between the eldest and the youngest child). In total, 37% of respondents reported that their households had one or more children in school, making school transport an important issue in the province. About half of trips to school are made on foot, and Figure 2.9 shows that a smaller proportion of trips are made by car, taxi and school bus. However, public transport also plays an important role in providing children with access to education in Gauteng: about a quarter of school children in the sample use taxis, buses or trains. School buses transport about 8% of school children to school. Only 2% of children use bicycles. figure 2.9: main mode for trips to school 1% train 51% walk 2% Bicycle 19% Car/motorbike 15% taxi 8% school bus 3% other bus 1% other Mobility in the GautenG city-ReGion 24 Figure 2.10 plots the distribution of the time between when children leave home, and the start of school (here called ‘time to school bell’), for users of different modes. The evidence indicates that transport conditions require many children to leave home very early to get to school, although we cannot be sure, on the basis of the way the question was asked, that children did not arrive at school in good time well ahead of the start of classes. Approximately 42% of children travelling by bus have to leave more than an hour before the school bell. This is slightly less for those travelling by taxi (39%), while 29% of those travelling by car spent more than an hour on the road. Being driven to school by a parent evidently still requires many children to leave very early. Children who walk to school are, interestingly, best off: only 14% leave home more than an hour before the bell. figure 2.10: time between leaving home and school bell, for all school trips Bus time to school bell 50 40 30 20 10 0 <15 min 15-30 min 31-45 min 46-60 min >60 min p er ce n ta g e 50 40 30 20 10 0 walk time to school bell <15 min 15-30 min 31-45 min 46-60 min >60 min p er ce n ta g e taxi time to school bell 50 40 30 20 10 0 <15 min 15-30 min 31-45 min 46-60 min >60 min p er ce n ta g e 50 40 30 20 10 0 Car time to school bell <15 min 15-30 min 31-45 min 46-60 min >60 min p er ce n ta g e Chapter 2 2011 gcro quality of life survey: analysis of transport data 25 2.2.7 access to public transport The QoL Survey measured access to public transport by asking respondents to estimate the walking time from their house to the nearest taxi stop, bus stop or train station. The results show that public transport access in Gauteng is reasonably good (see Figure 2.11). Overall, almost three- quarters of households live within a ten minute walk of a public transport service, and 95% live within a 30 minute walk (about two kilometres). These figures correspond well with the NHTS findings from 2003, which indicated that 91.8% of Gauteng households live within a 30 minute walk from public transport. Gauteng outperformed other provinces on this measure. However, public transport access is somewhat uneven across the province. Access is better in metropolitan municipalities than in district municipality areas, with Lesedi, Midvaal and Mogale City performing worst. In Midvaal, for example, 47% of households live further than 10 minutes from public transport. The number of respondents who could not answer this question reflects people who either have no knowledge of public transport, or have no public transport within a walkable distance from their home. This percentage ranged between 10% of respondents (in Lesedi) and 24% (in Midvaal), with an average of 13% for Gauteng. Figure 2.11 excludes these figures. figure 2.11: walking time to nearest public transport, by municipality 100 80 60 40 20 0 e ku rh u le n i e m fu le n i Jo h an n es b u rg l es ed i m er af o n g m id va al m o g al e r an d fo n te in ts hw an e w es to n ar ia g au te n g p er ce n ta g e 75 21 4 66 30 4 75 20 5 63 26 12 68 26 5 53 37 11 62 30 8 74 21 5 70 25 5 64 30 6 72 23 5 within 10 minutes 11-30 minutes more than 30 minutes Mobility in the GautenG city-ReGion 26 2.2.8 household expenditure on transport Respondents were asked to estimate the total amount their households spend on transport each month. Recent research on expenditure questions in travel surveys suggests that responses to such questions frequently have large measurement errors (Behrens and Venter, 2006). Nevertheless, even if the absolute numbers are questionable, they might give useful insight when compared across subgroups of the sample. Figure 2.12 shows the percentage of households spending more than specified amounts on transport monthly. Car users spend more on transport than public transport users, which is to be expected although car costs are usually greatly underestimated by respondents with cars. Interestingly, residents of metropolitan areas spend about R200 more on transport per month than residents of non-metro municipalities. This could reflect either more trips being made, or longer distances travelled in metro areas as compared to non-metro areas. However, the higher costs of car use are offset by income differences. Car users have much higher incomes than public transport users – about 40% of metro car users spend more than 10% of their (approximate) median incomes on transport. This rises to 55% for non-metro car users, and almost 80% for public transport users. figure 2.12: percentage of households spending more than specified amounts on transport per month public transport users (metro) public transport users (non-metro) Car users (metro) Car users (non-metro) 10% of median income r200 r400 r600 r800 r1000 r1500 100 80 60 40 20 0 p er ce n ta g e Chapter 2 2011 gcro quality of life survey: analysis of transport data 27 2.2.9 satisfaction with transport To gauge people’s general satisfaction with transport, respondents were asked to rate their satisfaction on a five- point Likert scale (from very satisfied to very dissatisfied) with the type of transport they most frequently use. Results are shown in the figures below (see Figure 2.13, Figure 2.14 and Figure 2.15). In general, satisfaction with transport is highest in Midvaal, Merafong, Lesedi and Randfontein municipalities, and lowest in Ekurhuleni, Johannesburg and Mogale City. These figures do not correlate well with other more objective measures of transport service quality mentioned before, such as public transport coverage and travel times, although it needs to be borne in mind that the graph (Figure 2.13) does not distinguish between public and private modes. Expectations might also be different in metropolitan and non-metro areas. Overall, however, people seem relatively satisfied with the transport they use. On average, 75% of respondents described themselves as either satisfied or very satisfied with their transport. Satisfaction does not vary much by sex, as indicated in Figure 2.14. figure 2.13: satisfaction with transport, by municipality figure 2.14: satisfaction with transport, by sex female male 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 percentage very satisfied satisfied neither dissatisfied very dissatisfied 15 60 11 11 4 17 59 9 11 4 westonaria tshwane randfontein mogale midvaal meratong lesedi Johannesburg emfuleni ekurhuleni 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 percentage very satisfied satisfied neither dissatisfied very dissatisfied 33 48 9 9 17 65 8 7 21 62 8 8 18 60 6 14 31 55 6 6 20 66 6 7 32 50 8 3 14 61 10 11 26 49 11 11 13 54 12 16 Mobility in the GautenG city-ReGion 28 figure 2.15: satisfaction with transport, by mode (note: *sample<30) Satisfaction with transport varies markedly, however, depending on the mode people use (Figure 2.15). Car users are the most satisfied with their transport, and more so if the respondent is a driver (92% are satisfied) rather than a passenger (88%) or lift club member (82%). Motorbike users (86% satisfied) are also satisfied with transport conditions. Evidently the freedom and flexibility offered by a private car counts for much in people’s subjective perception – the very thing that is difficult to offer with public transport options. Ignoring the modes with very small sample sizes, most dissatisfied are train users (57% satisfied), walkers (66% satisfied), and taxi users (67% satisfied). Only 20% of taxi users said they were dissatisfied or very dissatisfied with their mode. 2.2.10 main problems with public transport Public transport users were asked for the main problems they experience on a regular basis. Table 2.3 shows the results by municipality, and Table 2.4 by mode. Both tables, and those that follow below, show the ‘degree of severity’ with a colour scale, with low percentages in green and high percentages in red. Problems differ somewhat depending on where people live. Residents of the metros were more concerned with the high cost of transport, rude drivers/passengers and unreliable service. In non-metro areas, problems with unroadworthy vehicles, reckless driving and rudeness dominate. These satisfied neutral dissatisfied other other bus school bus* Brt/rea vaya bus* gauteng* train taxi Car passenger, lift club Car as passenger Car as driver motorbike Bicycle walk 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 percentage 79 13 8 78 5 17 93 7 58 21 21 68 31 57 15 27 67 12 20 82 7 11 88 8 5 92 4 3 86 8 6 85 11 3 66 14 21 Chapter 2 2011 gcro quality of life survey: analysis of transport data 29 trends are consistent with higher use of taxis in non-metro areas. Interestingly, most people do not consider crime and security on public transport as a major problem. Table 2.4 further explains some of the key public transport issues faced by commuters in Gauteng. Expensive fares are considered the most important problem by taxi users. Among bus and train users the problem is not cost, but reliability. These findings are consistent with the state of operations in these industries: bus and train fares are kept low by state subsidies, but taxi fares are not. Given that the taxi is the key provider of mobility for 42% of workers, 73% of work seekers, and 50% of all trips in Gauteng (Figure 2.2), affordability of taxis is clearly an issue to address. It is also important to ensure that future upgrading of the public transport system – Unreliability Unroadworthy vehicles Crime/ security Reckless driving Rude drivers and/or passengers Lack of comfort Expensive Insufficient service at night Insufficient service on weekend Long walk to nearest stop/ station Long wait at stop/station METRO ekurhuleni 13% 14% 3% 12% 11% 6% 15% 1% 1% 3% 4% Johannesburg 13% 11% 3% 12% 14% 9% 14% 2% 1% 2% 4% tshwane 16% 9% 3% 14% 12% 9% 16% 2% 1% 3% 4%                         NON- METRO emfuleni 12% 14% 3% 15% 15% 9% 13% 2% 0% 1% 5% lesedi 10% 5% 3% 18% 12% 14% 14% 3% 1% 2% 8% merafong 13% 22% 3% 9% 6% 7% 12% 3% 0% 5% 7% midvaal 9% 13% 0% 11% 4% 4% 12% 3% 3% 5% 21% mogale 11% 11% 3% 11% 12% 8% 9% 4% 2% 4% 10% randfontein 12% 14% 3% 12% 9% 9% 9% 3% 1% 3% 9% westonaria 13% 11% 3% 13% 13% 7% 10% 6% 1% 3% 8% for instance by replacing taxi routes with higher-capacity bus or Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) services – does not result in fare hikes for passengers (including those who remain taxi users), many of whom are vulnerable. Affordability is also a key concern among people walking, suggesting that many non-motorised transport users do so not by choice, but because they cannot afford to travel by any other means. In order to establish the problems that non-users might have, non-public transport users were asked to indicate their main reason for not using public transport. The data are summarised in Table 2.5, grouped by income level, and clustered into similar types of problems. The reasons for not using public transport are different for different groups. Among the lowest income group, cost is the most significant barrier for 27% of respondents. Not having access to public transport nearby is also a significant problem among low-income groups. From about R6 400 upwards, having access to a car (and its amenities, including flexibility and reliability) is the most common reason given for not using public transport. Concern with crime and security is a minor reason, except among the highest income category where 17% of non-public transport users identified crime as their primary concern. Thus, negative perceptions around the crime and security risk on public transport appear to be more of a problem among non-public transport users than among users. table 2.3: Biggest problem with public transport reported by users, by municipality Mobility in the GautenG city-ReGion 30 Unreliability Unroadworthy vehicles Crime/ security Reckless driving Rude drivers and/or passengers Lack of comfort Expensive Insufficient service at night Insufficient service on weekend Long walk to nearest stop/ station Long wait at stop/station walk 11% 15% 2% 11% 8% 8% 16% 1% 1% 3% 4% Car 17% 12% 4% 14% 12% 9% 8% 2% 1% 2% 5% taxi 10% 13% 3% 13% 13% 8% 17% 2% 1% 2% 5% train 18% 9% 6% 8% 8% 11% 11% 4% 1% 3% 8% Bus 20% 9% 3% 11% 10% 7% 12% 2% 2% 3% 4% other 15% 16% 8% 10% 6% 10% 6% 2% 2% 3% 6% table 2.4: Biggest problem with public transport reported by users, by mode of transport they used for the longest part of their most frequent trip Public transport access problems Public transport cost Public transport safety problems Non- motorised transport (NMT) user Public transport non-user Car preference/utility Other m o n th ly h o u se h o ld in co m e N o p ub lic t ra ns p or t se rv ic es in m y ar ea It t ak es t oo lo ng t o w al k to n ea re st s to p /s ta ti on Th e w ai t fo r p ub lic tr an sp or t is t oo lo ng I c an ’t aff or d p ub lic tr an sp or t I w or ry a b ou t cr im e/ sa fe ty I w or ry a b ou t ro ad /r ai l ac ci d en ts I w al k/ cy cl e I d on ’t w an t to u se p ub lic t ra ns p or t I c an a ff or d a c ar I g et t o w or k/ sc ho ol o n ti m e w it h m y ca r I c an t ak e un p la nn ed tr ip s I d ro p o ff fr ie nd s/ fa m ily on m y w ay – b et te r th an ev er yo ne u si ng p ub lic tr an sp or t I a m a m em b er o f a li ft cl ub /p as se ng er O th er zero to r400 14% 4% 7% 27% 5% 2% 6% 14% 5% 1% 2% 0% 2% 11% r401- r3 200 15% 12% 6% 10% 4% 3% 6% 13% 8% 2% 5% 1% 1% 16% r3 200- r12 800 14% 7% 3% 4% 5% 3% 2% 16% 18% 9% 10% 1% 0% 7% r12 801- r102 400 8% 4% 3% 1% 5% 2% 1% 20% 28% 14% 12% 1% 0% 2% r102 400 + 4% 8% 2% 0% 17% 3% 0% 10% 18% 4% 19% 4% 0% 10% response not given 8% 6% 5% 2% 6% 1% 3% 23% 12% 6% 11% 1% 0% 15% all 10% 6% 5% 5% 6% 2% 3% 19% 15% 7% 10% 1% 1% 11% table 2.5: reasons for not using public transport, grouped by type of problem and income Chapter 2 2011 gcro quality of life survey: analysis of transport data 31 Figure 2.16 shows the desire line plots for Gauteng. On the basis of this we can observe the following: • In terms of transport demand, Gauteng functions to some extent as a city-region, with connectivity between all parts of the province. In terms of the major linkages, two clusters stand out: Tshwane, and Johannesburg/ Ekurhuleni. Table 2.6 below shows the percentage of most frequent trips between municipalities. About 3% of Johannesburg residents make their most frequent trip to Tshwane, and 8% to Ekurhuleni. From Tshwane, about 6% go to Johannesburg. Almost 20% of trips from Ekurhuleni go to Johannesburg. • Johannesburg clearly remains the heart of the province in terms of providing access to jobs and services to people across a large part of Gauteng. Johannesburg is a very strong attractor not only to residents from nearby Soweto and (the not so nearby) Orange Farm, but also areas across Ekurhuleni. In fact, in terms of movement linkages Ekurhuleni is virtually indistinguishable from Johannesburg. This is a strong indicator that integrated planning of mobility networks and land use development is needed between Gauteng municipalities in general, and especially between Johannesburg and Ekurhuleni. • Within-municipality linkages are far stronger than those between cities. For instance, the desire lines between Tshwane and Johannesburg are weak compared to shorter distance desire lines. In Johannesburg 84% of most frequent trips stay within the city; in Ekurhuleni this percentage is 75%, and in Tshwane 90% (Table 2.6). Among district municipalities, travel to other areas is more common – Emfuleni, Midvaal, Randfontein, and Mogale City are closely integrated with Johannesburg, while there are also strong movements between Westonaria and Randfontein local municipalities. This finding is associated with the type of trips mapped here – not simply work trips (which would tend to show stronger long-distance linkages), but all trip purposes. Clearly local mobility is important and not just peak-period work travel that tends to happen over longer distances. • Figure 2.16 further suggests that strong linkages also exist between ‘townships’ and their proximate urban centres (e.g. between Soshanguve/Mabopane and the Pretoria Central Business District (CBD); Soweto and the Johannesburg CBD; Ekangala and Bronkhorstspruit; Katlehong/Vosloorus and Germiston; and Orange Farm and Vereeniging). This suggests that the historic social and economic linkages between townships and their nearest urban centre are still strong. 2.3 Mapping of movement patterns This section maps the key movements in Gauteng at a provincial level to provide a visual representation of functional linkages between different parts of the city-region. It is based on the most frequent trip identified by each respondent, weighted for socio-demographic variables to reflect the population at provincial and local municipality level. As in section 2.2, however, trip frequency is not reflected, so the number of trips in the graphs does not necessarily correspond to daily or hourly flows. The figures rather reflect the strength of connectivity between origins and destinations – both for economic and social purposes – taking all trip purposes into account, and from the point of view of the user rather than transport conditions on the transport network. It therefore has a different interpretation from the typical peak period volume plot on the network that is more reflective of economic-only linkages (being mainly composed of work trips). Origins and destinations were aggregated from the suburb- level up to larger geographic units to improve clarity. As the 2011 QoL Survey did not survey households outside of Gauteng, the maps are restricted to origins and destinations within the provincial boundaries. The maps are plotted against a spatial layer (termed “urban classification”) that will be described in the next section. Mobility in the GautenG city-ReGion 32 metropolitan higher order roads play, to a large extent, different roles in terms of the modes and users served. The national network seems to be more important for car travel, while provincial/metropolitan higher order roads play an important role in linking communities who use public- transport to access opportunities. These roads include the R80 (connecting Soshanguve to Pretoria); several roads connecting the Mamelodi and Atteridgeville areas respectively to the Pretoria CBD; the R511 (connecting Diepsloot to Johannesburg); the various roads connecting Soweto with the Johannesburg CBD; and the R553 stretching between Vereeniging and Johannesburg. Destination of most frequent trip Johannesburg tshwane ekurhuleni emfuleni lesedi merafong midvaal mogale City randfontein westonaria outside gauteng h o m e m u n iC ip a l it y Johannesburg 84.3% 2.9% 8.1% 1.8% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 1.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.7% tshwane 6.2% 90.0% 2.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.9% ekurhuleni 19.9% 3.0% 75.2% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.4% emfuleni 10.3% 1.2% 2.7% 82.8% 0.1% 0.0% 2.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.4% lesedi 4.2% 1.2% 17.8% 1.8% 73.8% 0.3% 0.0% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.3% merafong 5.6% 2.9% 0.3% 1.3% 0.0% 86.6% 0.0% 0.5% 1.9% 0.2% 0.8% midvaal 8.1% 0.2% 10.2% 27.9% 1.9% 0.7% 49.8% 0.4% 0.5% 0.4% 0.0% mogale City 27.9% 2.3% 2.3% 1.2% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 57.5% 7.5% 0.7% 0.3% randfontein 18.8% 1.3% 1.9% 0.7% 0.0% 0.9% 0.5% 8.0% 61.9% 5.6% 0.2% westonaria 6.5% 1.2% 1.4% 1.1% 0.2% 4.3% 0.0% 4.3% 15.1% 65.1% 0.7% table 2.6: percentage of most frequent trips between origin and destination municipalities Figure 2.17 - Figure 2.20 depict the most frequent trips allocated to the major road network (rather than as a desire line plot), to give a sense of the importance of various parts of the existing road network. Note, once again, that the thickness of lines on the network does not correspond exactly to the conventional hourly traffic volume plots that are obtained from transport models or traffic counts. Based on these plots the following observations are made: • The importance of the national (freeway) road network for intra-provincial mobility is clear. However, it appears that the national urban freeways and the provincial/ Figure 2.19 and Figure 2.20 (taxi and bus modes respectively) indicate that these roads primarily serve a public transport connectivity role. • These patterns suggest that provincial and metropolitan roads are key assets to mobility in Gauteng and their maintenance and upgrading should be a key priority. Taking into account that they indicate desired rather than actual routes between origin and destinations, the plots might also help inform the alignment of priority routes for public transport, for instance BRT trunk or feeder services. Chapter 2 2011 gcro quality of life survey: analysis of transport data 33 figure 2.16: desire lines of most frequent trips, gauteng figure 2.17: most frequent trips (car and road-based public transport) assigned to major road network Mobility in the GautenG city-ReGion 34 figure 2.18: most frequent trips (car only) assigned to major road network figure 2.19: most frequent trips (minibus taxi only) assigned to major road network Chapter 2 2011 gcro quality of life survey: analysis of transport data 35 figure 2.20: most frequent trips (bus only) assigned to major road network figure 2.21: distribution of urban settlement types across study area Mobility in the GautenG city-ReGion 36 2.4 Analysis by settlement type This section analyses some of the key mobility responses from the survey with reference to a newly created ‘urban settlement typology’. We differentiate settlements in Gauteng according to the general locational, housing, and neighbourhood characteristics of the area, and examine how the mobility and access realities differ according to the type of settlement a household lives in. The typology transcends administrative (e.g. municipal) boundaries, attempting to capture the underlying spatial characteristics of an area. The analysis helps to establish how the market dynamics and actions of government that produce specific settlement forms affect the day-to-day mobility and access outcomes faced by households in Gauteng. 2.4.1 urban settlement typology Drawing on recent work on settlement typologies and housing in South Africa9, we divided the GCR into eight settlement types at the suburb level. The underlying hypothesis was that the quality of access and mobility enjoyed by a household or individual varies systematically with the spatial, historical or socio-economic characteristics of the settlement they live in. As with all typologies, we attempted to limit the (large) amount of variation across different settlements (and indeed within them), by grouping suburbs together using a small number of key variables thought to reflect these underlying differences. The eight settlement types include: • Urban core: Core areas of traditional CBDs of Gauteng’s cities, with high densities, mixed land uses, and high accessibility due to a convergence of public transport and road links in the CBDs. These include the Pretoria and Johannesburg CBDs, as well as the old town centres of the East and West Rand and Vereeniging. • Old suburban: Traditional suburban developments, established before 1995, and characterised by relatively good road network coverage, low to medium densities, and typically located just outside the urban core areas. The age of settlement is used as a proxy for the well-established and well-serviced nature of the area. 9 The concept of the settlement typology used here, although adapted and customised for the current study, draws heavily on the work done by Catherine Cross and colleagues at the Human Sciences Research Council (HSRC) as part of the Department of Science and Technology-funded Integrated Planning, Development and Modelling (IPDM) Project jointly undertaken with the Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR) and the University of Pretoria (UP) between 2009 and 2012. For a recent review see Cross et al. (2013). Chapter 2 2011 gcro quality of life survey: analysis of transport data 37 • New suburban: Suburbs founded after around 1995, typically located further away from the CBDs and closer to the outer fringe of the urban area. These areas typify more commute-oriented, sprawling types of development, and include many gated communities as well as low to medium density cluster housing areas. These areas might have less well-developed road networks and local amenities than older suburbs. • Formal townships: Formal dwellings located within traditional black townships or homeland areas of the city-region, within proclaimed urban areas, but excluding Reconstruction and Development Planning (RDP) housing. These areas have varying infrastructure quality, density and amenities, but are generally planned settlements. • Informal inner: Informal housing (including shacks and backyard dwellings) located within the traditional boundary of the built-up areas of Gauteng. These include shacks on unused or public land close to the urban core, or within traditional black townships. • Informal outer: Informal housing located outside of the traditional boundary of the built-up areas of Gauteng. This includes shacks in new township developments, between RDP housing units (or in their backyards) and in newer peripheral informal settlements. • Formal RDP: RDP houses or subsequent subsidised housing programmes delivered over the last 18 years. These tend to be located on the edges of traditional townships. • Formal peripheral: Settlements on smallholdings, agricultural communities and other low-density parts of the city-region. Readily available Geographic Information Systems (GIS) data were used to allocate suburbs to these eight classes, and to allocate individual households from the 2011 QoL Survey sample within the suburbs (for instance to differentiate between households living in formal RDP houses and households living in informal housing within those same RDP areas). A brief description of the data rules and layers used for this allocation is described below: • Urban core: A selection of older CBDs from the Gauteng Spatial Development Framework’s (GSDF’s) major nodes data. • Old suburban: Extracted from the residential records of the 1996 CSIR/Satellite Applications Centre (SAC) land cover. • New suburban: Extracted from the residential records of the 2011 CSIR/SAC land cover that did not appear in the 1996 layer. These areas were thus developed between 1996 and 2011. • Formal townships: based on the 20 Townships Programme data layer from the Gauteng Department of Economic Development, and areas classified in the 1996 CSIR/SAC land cover as townships. • Formal RDP: All households in the QoL dataset indicating their dwelling as a RDP house. • Informal inner: All households in the QoL dataset indicating their dwelling as informal, within the urban core, old and new suburbs, and formal township suburbs as defined above. • Informal outer: All households in the QoL dataset indicating their dwelling as informal and not included in ‘informal inner’. • Smallholdings: Extracted from the 2009 South African National Biodiversity Institute (SANBI) land cover. • Agricultural hinterland: Remaining extent of the province. The spatial distribution of the settlement types across Gauteng is shown in Figure 2.21, with Table 2.7 indicating the number of survey responses allocated to each settlement type. Most numerous is ‘formal township’, containing almost 40% of the sample, followed by ‘old suburban’ areas with 28%. Informal dwellings are distributed almost equally between inner and outer areas of the province, but also appear in urban core settlements. Mobility in the GautenG city-ReGion solomon legodi Chapter 2 2011 gcro quality of life survey: analysis of transport data 39 Urban settlement type Dwelling type Total % of sampleFormal Informal Other formal peripheral 333 1 22 356 2% formal rdp 1 985 17 55 2 057 12% formal township 5 918 0 206 6 124 37% informal outer 0 686 0 687 4% informal inner 0 929 0 929 6% new suburban 1 290 0 46 1 336 8% old suburban 4 642 0 104 4 746 28% urban core 462 26 7 495 3% total 14 631 1 659 440 16 730 100% table 2.7: allocation of households in dataset to eight urban settlement types 2.4.2 socio-economic description of urban structure types To get a sense of the socio-economic differences between the settlement types, Figure 2.22 shows the employment status of residents in each, while Table 2.8 shows median incomes. Areas differ significantly in unemployment levels and income levels. Suburban areas (old and new) have by far the highest employment and income levels – these are generally the more affluent residential areas of the province. As is expected, households in informal dwellings have the lowest income and employment levels. Interestingly, informal workers are present in all settlement types, suggesting that seeking employment in the informal sector is a livelihood strategy that cuts across socio-economic boundaries. Urban core residents are relatively affluent and well- employed, indicating that the central cities still manage to concentrate household capital. Mobility in the GautenG city-ReGion 40 Urban settlement type Median monthly income (Rands) formal peripheral   r 2 094 formal rdp   r 1 479 formal township   r 2 163 informal outer   r 1 109 informal inner   r 1 178 new suburban   r 7 536 old suburban   r 8 214 urban core   r 5 142 table 2.8: median income of households in sample, per settlement type figure 2.22: employment status of respondents by settlement type formal peripheral formal rdp formal township informal outer informal inner new suburban old suburban urban core 2931 7 33 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 percentage employed formal employed informal unemployed other 16 5 49 30 24 5 40 31 18 8 58 16 17 9 56 18 41 7 23 29 43 7 16 34 35 8 27 30 Chapter 2 2011 gcro quality of life survey: analysis of transport data 41 Urban settlement type Race African Asian/Indian Coloured White formal peripheral 81% 3% 3% 14% formal rdp 97% 1% 1% 0% formal township 93% 2% 3% 2% informal outer 98% 1% 0% 0% informal inner 97% 1% 1% 1% new suburban 56% 5% 7% 32% old suburban 47% 6% 5% 41% urban core 79% 3% 2% 16% table 2.9: race distribution of sample, by settlement type When disaggregated by race, the figures indicate an interesting diversity in many settlement types. Suburban areas consist almost equally of African and other race groups (Table 2.9). This might be due to a combination of factors, including increasing integration of older ‘white’ suburbs, demographic turnover in others and the development of new suburban areas (or outward growth of existing ones) that attract medium-income households from across the race spectrum. The latter point is supported by the fact that the percentage of Africans is higher in newer suburban than in old suburban areas. Mobility in the GautenG city-ReGion 42 Table 2.10 shows the migration status of the sample. The function of the urban core as a reception area for migrants from outside the province is clear: only 38% of residents were born in Gauteng, and about half moved to Gauteng within the last 15 years. Similarly, informal settlements regardless of their location on the inner-outer continuum are preferred locations for migrants, thus playing a key role in urbanisation within Gauteng. Figure 2.23 confirms this, with regards to the time a resident has been living in their present dwelling. In summary, then, it appears that migrants who gain access to the city centres tend to have higher-income and lower levels of unemployment, while those who are less well-off are located in more distant informal settlements. Location close to economic opportunities offered by the traditional CBD and surrounds is associated with better economic well-being. This indicates that traditional role of the CBD as providing access to economic opportunity is still strong. However, the causality is not clear: more central locations might enable people to gain better employment and earn higher incomes; but more central locations might also command higher entry prices (in terms of housing cost or other social capital-related costs) and thus keep lower-income migrants out in the first place. figure 2.23: time of tenure at present address, per settlement type formal peripheral formal rdp formal township informal outer informal inner new suburban old suburban urban core 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 percentage less than 2 years 2-15 years more than 15 years always lived in this dwelling 305 26 39 6 43 16 35 5 20 27 48 8 41 12 39 10 38 18 34 8 46 16 30 8 41 17 34 24 36 11 29 Chapter 2 2011 gcro quality of life survey: analysis of transport data 43 Urban settlement type Born in Gauteng Moved to Gauteng … more than 15 years ago … within last 15 years formal peripheral 63% 14% 22% formal rdp 63% 15% 21% formal township 72% 13% 15% informal outer 39% 18% 42% informal inner 38% 19% 42% new suburban 57% 16% 27% old suburban 61% 14% 25% urban core 38% 10% 52% table 2.10: migration status of sample, by settlement type Suburban settlements have a higher than expected amount of residents from outside Gauteng (about 40%); approximately half of residents moved into their houses within the last 15 years. This suggests that Gauteng’s suburbs have experienced their fair share of turnover. The formal township areas have been the most stable – a full three-quarters of township dwellers have lived there all their lives or for more than 15 years. This might be an indication of stable long-term communities, or of less than optimal housing markets that limit opportunities for housing ownership turnover. Mobility in the GautenG city-ReGion 44 Finally, there appears to be a marked difference in the general life satisfaction experienced by residents depending on the type of settlement they live in (Table 2.11). Satisfaction is highest in old suburban areas (76% satisfied), followed by new suburban (72%) and urban core areas (70%). Lowest satisfaction occurs in informal areas, especially in more distant (outer) informal neighbourhoods. Once people get access to RDP housing their satisfaction jumps markedly (from around 40% satisfied to around 60%, with 26% dissatisfied), but not as high as people living in other formal townships (23% dissatisfied). Lastly, people living in peripheral or more rural parts of the province seem to consist of two groups: those with average to high satisfaction (60% are satisfied with life, on a par with the provincial average), and those with low satisfaction (29% are dissatisfied, more than the provincial average of 21%). Urban settlement type Life satisfaction Satisfied Neutral Dissatisfied formal peripheral 60% 12% 29% formal rdp 59% 15% 26% formal township 61% 16% 23% informal outer 41% 13% 46% informal inner 42% 18% 40% new suburban 72% 14% 14% old suburban 76% 13% 11% urban core 70% 16% 14% total 64% 15% 21% table 2.11: satisfaction with life as a whole, by settlement type Kyle Brand Chapter 2 2011 gcro quality of life survey: analysis of transport data 45 2.4.3 transport patterns by urban settlement type This section examines relationships between the settlement types and the mobility-related responses in the survey. On average, about 23% of respondents reported not making any trips in response to the survey request to identify their most frequent trip. This is a proxy figure for immobility, i.e. an inability or lack of desire to travel. Even though experience indicates that this figure cannot necessarily be interpreted as the absolute number of people who are ‘stranded’ owing to an absence of affordable transport options, it gives an indication of the relative levels of travel activity participation across settlement types, which is broadly correlated to welfare. Table 2.12 shows that immobility (as defined above) varies significantly across settlement types, and is clearly related to distance from the core areas of the province. Immobility in the CBD areas is only 14%, rising as settlements are further removed from the CBD, until it reaches 30% in peripheral areas. Clearly centrality of location correlates with higher transport options (including more public transport options converging on central cities), which in turn promotes more trip making.  Urban settlement type “I never make any trips” (% of respondents per settlement type) formal peripheral 30% formal rdp 28% formal township 26% informal outer 25% informal inner 26% new suburban 17% old suburban 19% urban core 14% table 2.12: extent of immobility in sample, by urban settlement type Mobility in the GautenG city-ReGion 46 Figure 2.24 shows that mode use varies across these settlement types. As one would expect given the differences in incomes, car use is highest in old and new suburbs (between 57% and 63% of trips), but also significant in urban core areas (25% of trips) and peripheral areas (30%). Walking as a main mode is important in urban core areas – again illustrating the benefit of central location in terms of being able to avoid more costly transport options – and also in inner informal areas. Here inner informal areas differ from outer areas. Outer informal areas are not within walking distance of destinations, and here only 5% of most frequent trips are on foot, which is remarkable given that this includes not only work but also daily shopping and other trips. Taxis play a larger role in outer than in inner areas. Clearly outer informal areas have a quadruple disadvantage: they are located further away from work opportunities; they have a shortage of other amenities nearby; an absence of bus and rail routes force higher reliance on taxis (which tend to be more expensive); and these fares consume a higher proportion of residents’ incomes, which are lower than elsewhere. figure 2.24: main mode used for most frequent trip, by settlement type formal peripheral formal rdp formal township informal outer informal inner new suburban old suburban urban core 10 30 54 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 percentage 3 7 8 73 7 8 17 65 6 5 5 78 7 15 4 65 11 8 57 27 4 6 63 24 2 18 25 50 3 walk Car taxi Bus train other Chapter 2 2011 gcro quality of life survey: analysis of transport data 47 It appears that some inner informal settlements are well located, such that users can walk to destinations (which could be in nearby formal settlements), or use inexpensive trains. Train use is highest in inner informal areas. Do people in different settlement types face longer travel distances and times? Table 2.13 tabulates the travel times reported by respondents for their most frequent trips. It shows, remarkably, that no great variation exists between the eight settlement types – average travel times vary between 41.9 minutes in old suburban neighbourhoods and 47.5 minutes in adjacent urban core areas. The percentage of trips taking longer than one hour is highest in township (15%), RDP (15%), and peripheral areas (16%). Questions exist about the accuracy of the self-reported travel time data (see section 2.2.5 above). If the data is correct, it could indicate that residents of suburban locations are most ‘time-advantaged’, and that travel times generally increase with distance from the CBD. Two exceptions to the pattern are urban core locations, which have longer travel times (likely due to the higher incidence of people walking), and outer informal areas (which have shorter than expected travel times, for unknown reasons). Urban settlement type Mean travel time of most frequent trip (mins) % of trips <20mins % of trips >60mins formal peripheral 46.9 22% 16% formal rdp 46.5 28% 15% formal township 46.3 27% 15% informal outer 42.4 25% 11% informal inner 46.2 26% 14% new suburban 42.7 30% 12% old suburban 41.9 32% 12% urban core 47.5 31% 13% table 2.13: travel time of frequent trip, by settlement type The next two tables help to shed further light. Table 2.14 tabulates average estimated trip distances for the most frequent trip10. It shows that, across all trip purposes, trip distances increase as settlements are located further away from the CBD. This is consistent with classical land use-transport theory which assumes that all trips are centred on the CBD. While all destinations are clearly not in the CBD any longer, it does suggest that the CBD and its surrounds still play a very important role as the location of many urban activities. 10 As trip distances were not reported in the survey, we estimated trip distances from the shortest-distance route by road between the origin and destination of each trip, according to the suburb reported for each. This measure is more likely to be accurate than travel times, as origins and destinations were generally accurately reported. Estimated distances and reported travel times were then used to estimate travel speeds. Mobility in the GautenG city-ReGion 48 In terms of travel distances required to access daily activities and work, being located in or near the traditional core of our cities confers a large benefit. Average trip distances (for all trip purposes) are more than three times longer for people living in the peripheral areas of the province than those in the centre. Of particular concern is distances travelled by people to look for work. Residents of peripheral/semi-rural and of RDP settlements are worst off in this regard, travelling more than 25km on average to look for work – a significant cost and time investment. If average travel times are very similar but travel distances differ markedly, it means that average speeds must also differ across the urban space. This is indeed confirmed by Table 2.15 showing the average travel speed estimated for all most frequent trips made by residents in each settlement type. Estimated speeds are lowest in the urban core, increasing with distance from the CBD. These speeds are calculated across all modes, including walking, public transport and car modes. Trips from the CBD are on average only 17km/h, due to the high incidence of walking. In old and new suburbs average speeds range between a slow 28.7km/h and 33.5km/h, reflecting the many short-distance trips made on low-order streets and also probably high levels of congestion on higher- order roads. Urban settlement type Mean travel distance (estimated), km Work Look for work Shopping All trips formal peripheral 25.50 28.19 32.25 28.46 formal rdp 21.68 25.55 17.48 21.38 formal township 23.62 24.70 16.80 21.54 informal outer 20.25 22.72 17.38 19.95 informal inner 19.58 19.97 11.85 17.94 new suburban 19.36 16.22 13.00 17.39 old suburban 15.66 15.93 10.74 14.91 urban core 10.53 8.47 9.55 9.15 table 2.14: mean travel distance for most frequent trip, by settlement type nKululeKo nKosi Chapter 2 2011 gcro quality of life survey: analysis of transport data 49 Urban settlement type Mean travel speed, all modes (estimated), km/h formal peripheral 49.9 formal rdp 36.9 formal township 37.6 informal outer 37.5 informal inner 31.1 new suburban 33.5 old suburban 28.7 urban core 17.3 table 2.15: mean travel speed of most frequent trips across all modes, by settlement type Main mode used Mean travel speed (estimated), km/h walk 10.4 Bicycle 28.5 motorbike 29.2 Car as driver 34.6 Car as passenger 33.3 Car as passenger through a lift club 27.2 taxi 36.2 train 40.8 gautrain 53.3 Brt/rea vaya bus 41.9 school bus 30.3 other bus 34.5 other type 34.4 table 2.16: average door-to-door travel speed (estimated), by main mode used Urban settlement type Mean monthly household transport cost formal peripheral   r313 formal rdp   r192 formal township r294 informal outer r150 informal inner r153 new suburban r549 old suburban r564 urban core r429 table 2.17: mean monthly household expenditure on transport, by settlement type Average speeds vary largely predictably between individual modes (Table 2.16). Frequent trips, of which the greatest part of the journey is done on foot, have an average speed of 10.4km/h (greater than walking speed as faster modes may be used on other segments of the trip). At the other end of the scale, public transport modes specifically designed for speed improvements seem to deliver: note the relatively high door-to-door speeds of the Gautrain (53.3km/h) and BRT (41.9km/h). The average estimated speed for car trips varies between 27.2km/h and 34.6km/h, lower than for taxi trips (36.2km/h) and rapid bus trips (41.9km/h). This result seems counterintuitive, but might give an indication of the extent to which congestion has eroded the speed advantage of the car over other modes in Gauteng. However, given the accuracy problems with reported travel times in the data, further work would be needed to confirm this finding. Table 2.17 summarises the average monthly expenditure on transport, by settlement type. Transport costs are heavily influenced by the types of modes used. Suburban households spend by far the most on transport (more than R500 per month), closely followed by urban core households (about R430). Evidently the shorter distances travelled by residents of these areas do not translate into low transport costs, as most trips are made by the relatively expensive car mode. Households in informal settlements spend about R150 per month on transport, in both inner and outer locations. The amounts are slightly higher in RDP settlements (R192) and almost double in formal townships (R294). Mobility in the GautenG city-ReGion 50  Urban settlement type Satisfaction with transport Satisfied Neutral Dissatisfied formal peripheral 75% 5% 21% formal rdp 67% 13% 20% formal township 70% 12% 18% informal outer 70% 9% 20% informal inner 58% 14% 28% new suburban 81% 9% 9% old suburban 85% 7% 9% urban core 81% 11% 8% table 2.18: satisfaction with transport, by settlement type Are residents of these different types of settlements satisfied with transport? Table 2.18 shows the result to this question in the survey. Following the same patterns as with general ‘life satisfaction’ (see Table 2.11), residents are most satisfied in suburban and central core locations, with as much as 85% of people responding positively. Dissatisfaction is highest in informal settlements, and more so in inner than in outer areas. In peripheral areas there is once again evidence of two groups, those who are very satisfied and those who are very dissatisfied with transport conditions. Looking at differences in the types of problems experienced by public transport users in the different areas (Table 2.19), it is clear that affordability is the most common problem in all areas with heavy public transport use. This includes township, informal and especially peripheral areas, where long travel distances help to raise travel costs. Reckless and rude drivers are considered more of a problem in urban core areas, perhaps corresponding to more aggressive driving styles under crowded CBD traffic conditions. Residents in suburban locations complain more about the unreliability and discomfort of public transport services, suggesting that the market for public transport in these areas has different service quality concerns than elsewhere. Chapter 2 2011 gcro quality of life survey: analysis of transport data 51   Single biggest problem with public transport Urban structure type Unreliability Unroadworthy vehicles Crime/security Reckless driving Rude drivers and/or passengers Lack of comfort Expense Insufficient service at night Insufficient service on weekend Long walk to nearest stop/ station Long wait at stop/station Other formal peripheral 16% 9% 2% 13% 6% 6% 22% 2% 2% 4% 13% 7% formal rdp 12% 14% 2% 11% 13% 7% 16% 1% 1% 3% 4% 16% formal township 13% 12% 3% 13% 14% 9% 14% 2% 1% 2% 4% 15% informal