The revenue model of an online South African stockbroking platform Wesley Ryan Bester Student number: 2607202 Email: wesleybester.wb@gmail.com Supervisor: Euphemia Godspower-Akpomiemie, Ph.D. A research report submitted to the Faculty of Commerce, Law and Management, University of the Witwatersrand, in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Management in the field of Digital Business. Johannesburg, 2024 ii Abstract As technology advances at an unprecedented pace, many businesses and industries must adapt to the increasingly digital world. The online stockbroking industry is no exception and requires significant attention and change to keep up with the times. Business and revenue models in the stockbroking industry in South Africa have remained essentially unchanged over the past few decades. The variable-rate brokerage fee charged on transactions executed remains the primary source of income. This revenue model has rapidly become unsustainable with the decrease in these fees over the past few years. The study's main objective is to investigate revenue models that are more suitable for the digital trading environment. The study examines the background and appropriateness of alternative revenue models and platform models, along with the use of prospect theory to guide customer preferences. This quantitative case study utilises secondary data from a South African bank's online stockbroking division, analysing over 334,000 trades over 10 years. The entire dataset is analysed by looking at its descriptive, and inferential statistics, as well as time-series analysis. The study investigates the relationship between frequency, transaction amount, and their effect on brokerage over time, along with their association using the Chi-square model. Secondly, a model is built to predict a fixed monthly subscription fee for clients to replace the outdated variable-rate brokerage model. Clients will then choose a model of best value to answer the second research question. The study addresses two hypotheses, it also finds brokerage fees highly correlated to transaction values and inversely related to trade frequency. Based on the results, the model developed can effectively predict future fixed monthly subscription fees for online stockbroking platforms. Keywords Online trading, stockbroking, business model, revenue model, profit formula, platform- based models. iii DECLARATION I, Wesley Bester, declare that this research report is my work except as indicated in the references and acknowledgements. It is submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Management in the field of Digital Business at the University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg. It has not been submitted before for any degree or examination in this or any other university. Name: Wesley Signature: Signed at: Sandton. On the 26th day of February 2024 iv DEDICATION I dedicate this research to my supportive parents, siblings, friends, and colleagues who have fostered my growth and thirst for knowledge. v ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I acknowledge with appreciation and thanks the following people: • My parents, siblings, friends, and family have provided a foundation for my growth and development while encouraging my quest for knowledge. • Dr Euphemia Godspower-Akpomiemie, my supervisor for her understanding and support throughout this project. • Dr John Nasila and the other WBS professors for their assistance and guidance. vi Table of Contents DEDICATION ................................................................................. iv ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ............................................................... v LIST OF TABLES ........................................................................... ix LIST OF FIGURES ......................................................................... xi CHAPTER 1. INTRODUCTION ....................................................... 1 1.1 Purpose of the Study .............................................................................................................. 1 1.1.1 Statement of Purpose.................................................................................................. 1 1.1.2 Framework of a Traditional Brokerage Model....................................................... 1 1.2 Context of the Study ............................................................................................................... 2 1.3 Research Problem ................................................................................................................... 8 1.4 Research Questions ............................................................................................................... 9 1.5 Significance of the Study ...................................................................................................... 9 1.6 Delimitations of the Study ................................................................................................... 10 1.7 Definitions of Terms .............................................................................................................. 10 1.8 Assumptions ........................................................................................................................... 11 1.9 Chapter Outline ...................................................................................................................... 11 CHAPTER 2: LITERATURE REVIEW ........................................... 13 2.1 Introduction............................................................................................................................. 13 2.2 Background of the Study .................................................................................................... 13 2.2.1 Introduction to Business Models ............................................................................... 15 2.2.2 Introduction to Revenue Models ................................................................................ 17 2.2.3 Introduction to Global Trends in Online Stockbroking ........................................ 18 2.3 Alternative Revenue Models in Stockbroking ................................................................ 19 2.3.1 The Influence of Pricing ............................................................................................... 19 2.3.2 Digital Transformation and its Impact on the Financial Industry ...................... 21 2.3.3 International Stockbroking Platform Robinhood is Setting Global Trends .... 22 2.4 Platform Business Models are Suitable for Stockbroking ......................................... 24 2.4.1 Critical Success Factors of Platforms’ Business Models ................................... 25 vii 2.4.2 Network Effects .............................................................................................................. 26 2.4.3 Movement from Traditional Business Models to Platform Business Models 27 2.5 Theoretical Framework ........................................................................................................ 29 2.5.1 Application of Prospect Theory (PT) ......................................................................... 29 2.6 Conclusion of Literature Review ....................................................................................... 30 2.6.1 Summary of Findings on Alternative Revenue Models in Stockbroking ........ 30 2.6.2 Summary of Findings on Platform Business Models ........................................... 30 Chapter 3: Research Methodology ............................................. 33 3.1 Research Approach .............................................................................................................. 33 3.2 Research Design ................................................................................................................... 33 3.3 Data Collection Methods ..................................................................................................... 34 3.4 Population and Sampling .................................................................................................... 34 3.4.1 Population ........................................................................................................................ 34 3.4.2 Sample and Sampling Method .................................................................................... 34 3.5 Descriptions of Variables .................................................................................................... 35 3.6 Procedure for Data Collection............................................................................................ 37 3.7 Data Analysis Strategies and Interpretation .................................................................. 37 3.8 Possible Limitations and Challenges of the Study ...................................................... 39 3.9 Quality Assurance ................................................................................................................. 40 3.9.1 External Validity .............................................................................................................. 40 3.9.2 Internal Validity ............................................................................................................... 40 3.9.3 Reliability .......................................................................................................................... 40 3.10 Ethical Consideration ......................................................................................................... 41 CHAPTER 4: PRESENTATION, DISCUSSION AND INTERPRETATION OF RESULTS ................................................................................ 42 4.1 Introduction............................................................................................................................. 42 4.2 Data Cleaning ......................................................................................................................... 42 4.3 Descriptive Analysis and Interpretation .......................................................................... 43 4.3.1 Time Periods in Years – First Year 2013 ................................................................... 43 4.3.2 Time Periods in Years = Third Year 2015 ................................................................. 45 4.3.3 Time Periods in Years = Seventh Year 2019 ............................................................ 48 4.3.4 Time Periods in Years = Eighth Year 2020 ............................................................... 50 4.3.5 Time Periods in Years = Tenth Year 2022 ................................................................. 53 4.3.6 Summary of Descriptive Analysis.............................................................................. 56 viii 4.4 Inferential Analysis and Interpretation ............................................................................ 57 4.4.1 Time Periods in Years = First Year 2013 ................................................................... 58 4.4.2 Time Periods in Years = Third Year 2015 ................................................................. 62 4.4.3 Time Periods in Years = Seventh Year 2019 ............................................................ 66 4.4.4 Time Periods in Years = Eighth Year 2020 ............................................................... 70 4.4.5 Time Periods in Years = Tenth Year 2022 ................................................................. 74 4.4.6 Transaction Value vs Brokerage 2013–2022 (Full Yearly Periods) .................... 77 4.5 Brokerage Regression Modelling with Time-Series Data ........................................... 83 4.5.1 Introduction ..................................................................................................................... 83 4.5.2 Time-Series Analysis ..................................................................................................... 84 4.5.3 Time-Series Prediction ................................................................................................. 90 4.5.4 Summary of Time-Series Analysis ............................................................................ 96 4.6 Modelling Customer Decision-Making between a Fixed or a Variable Brokerage Charge ............................................................................................................................................. 97 4.6.1 Summary of Customer Decision-Making ............................................................... 101 CHAPTER 5. CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATION……..100 5.1 Introduction ........................................................................................................... 102 5.2 Conclusion ............................................................................................................................ 103 5.2.1 Time periods, trading frequency and transaction values on brokerage rates . 103 5.2.2 Differences between a subscription-based payment model and the existing transaction-based model on brokerage rates .................................................................... 104 5.3 Recommendations .............................................................................................................. 105 5.4 Suggestions for Further Research ................................................................................. 105 References…………………………………………………………….106 Appendices……………………………………………………………115 ix LIST OF TABLES Table 1: Consistency Matrix, objectives, data detail and analysis method………... 40 Table 2.1: Brokerage amount in 2013 …………………………………………….…...44 Table 2.2: Brokerage amount 2015…………………………………………………….47 Table 2.3: Transaction amount 2019…………………………………………………...48 Table 2.4: Brokerage amount in 2020……………………………………………....….52 Table 2.5: Transaction amount in 2022………………………………………...…..….53 Table 3.1: Guidance on Chi-square tables: presentation and interpretation……....56 Table 3.2: Summary of time periods vs brokerage results for 2013……………..…58 Table 3.2.1: Chi-square test in 2013 for time periods vs brokerage…………….….58 Table 3.3: Summary of frequency vs brokerage results for 2013………….............59 Table 3.3.1: Chi-square test 2013 for frequency vs brokerage……………………..60 Table 3.3.2: Crosstabulation in 2013 for time periods vs brokerage………….……60 Table 3.4: Summary of results in 2015 of time periods vs brokerage ……………..62 Table 3.4.1: Chi-square test in 2015 for time periods vs brokerage………………..62 Table 3.4.2: Summary of results in 2015 for frequency vs brokerage……………...63 Table 3.4.3: Chi-Square test 2015 for frequency vs brokerage ………..…………..64 Table 3.5: Summary of results in 2019 for time periods vs brokerage………….....66 Table 3.5.1: Crosstabulation in 2019 for time periods vs brokerage…………….…66 Table 3.5.2: Chi-square test for time periods and brokerage in 2019………….…..67 Table 3.5.3: Summary of results for 2019 of frequency vs brokerage…………..…67 Table 3.5.4: Chi-square test in 2019 of frequency vs brokerage………………...…68 Table 3.5.5: Crosstabulation in 2019 of frequency vs brokerage……………..….…69 Table 3.6: Summary of results for 2020 of time periods vs brokerage …………….69 x Table 3.6.1: Chi-square in 2020 for time periods vs brokerage…………..………...70 Table 3.6.2: Crosstabulation in 2020 of time periods vs brokerage…………….…..70 Table 3.6.3: Summary of results for 2020 of frequency vs brokerage ………….….71 Table 3.6.4: Chi-square in 2020 of frequency vs brokerage ……………………..….72 Table 3.7: Summary of results in 2022 of time period vs brokerage…………....…..73 Table 3.7.1: Chi-square in 2022 of time periods vs brokerage …………………..….74 Table 3.7.2: Summary of results in 2022 for frequency vs brokerage…………...….75 Table 3.7.3: Chi-square in 2022 of frequency vs brokerage ………………………...75 Table 3.7.4: Crosstabulation in 2022 of frequency vs brokerage………………...….76 Table 3.8: Summary of results 2013 to 2022 for transaction value vs brokerage....77 Table 3.8.1: Chi-square of transaction value vs brokerage over the entire period...78 Table 3.8.2: Crosstabulation of transaction value vs brokerage………………….….78 Table 4.1: Reliability tests for 2013 to 2022………………………………………...….80 Table 5.1: Descriptive statistics………………………………………………………….83 Table 5.2: KPSS Test………………………………………………………………….….85 Table 5.3: Model selection criteria…………………………………………………...….89 Table 5.4: Causal estimates for the linear model…………………………………...…90 Table 5.5: Goodness of fit statistics……………………………………………………..91 Table 5.6: Random sample of data to show predictions of the model……………….94 Table 6.1: Historic brokerage fees on the same sample client set…………………...97 Table 6.2: Monthly fixed predicted brokerage vs historic monthly variable fees……98 xi LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1.1: A brief view of the traditional brokerage model ....................................... 2 Figure 1.2: JSE equities market, order flow and clearing. ......................................... 4 Figure 2.1: Capgemini Consulting Business Model Framework………………..........16 Figure 2.2: Five critical dimensions of configuring a price model…………………….19 Figure 2.3: Critical success factors on platform-based business models…………...25 Figure 2.4: Revenue mix and technology investments in banks adopting platform models………………………………………………………………………………………28 Figure 2.5: Conceptual Framework……………………………………………………..31 Figure 2.6: Analytical Framework………………………………………………………..32 Figure 3.1: Diagrammatic outline of the modelling………………………………….....38 Figure 4.1: Absolute Tx amount for 2013……………………………………………....43 Figure 4.2: Absolute Transaction amount in 2015……………………………………..45 Figure 4.3: Brokerage data for 2019…………………………………………………….49 Figure 4.4: Transaction amounts for 2020……………………………………………...51 Figure 4.5: Brokerage data in 2022……………………………………………………..55 Figure 4.6.1: Frequency of deals in 2013………………………………………………61 Figure 4.7.1: Frequency of deals in 2015………………………………………………65 Figure 4.8.1: Chart in 2020 of frequency vs brokerage……………………………….72 Figure 4.9.1: Chart of time periods in 2022………………………………………….....74 Figure 4.10.1: Brokerage <= 7000 over the period vs frequency…………………….79 Figure 4.11.1: Brokerage of 33601+ over the period and frequency……………...…79 Figure 5.1: Variable relationships and outliers with averages……………………..…84 xii Figure 5.2: Original time series compared to differenced………………………….…86 Figure 5.3: Autocorrelation function, original vs differenced………………………….87 Figure 5.4: Yearly and monthly seasonality check…………………………………….87 Figure 5.5: Variable relationships and outliers…………………………………………89 Figure 5.6: Linear regression and ARIMA predictions…………………………………92 Figure 5.7: PLOT ACF for residuals of the ARIMA model, ensuring no more information is left for the linear model…………………………………………………....93 Figure 5.8: Daily actual brokerage vs predicted brokerage……………………………95 Figure 6.1: Monthly prediction vs historic fees…………………………………………98 1 CHAPTER 1. INTRODUCTION 1.1 Purpose of the Study 1.1.1 Statement of Purpose This case study examined the practicality of applying a new revenue model to the South African online stockbroking business model. Developing a revenue model aligned with a higher frequency of online trading can improve the way in which clients are charged. This case study showcases online investing platforms with alternative revenue models other than a purely traditional per-deal model, which only partially captures the new digital nature of trading. This case study employed a quantitative approach to assess the viability of an alternative revenue model. 1.1.2 Framework of a Traditional Brokerage Model The framework of a traditional brokerage model in Figure 1.1 examines the challenges encountered in the stockbroking industry from a business standpoint. It aims to visually lead the reader through the issues and unique ideas presented in this research paper, and lays out the traditional model for brokerage charges, displaying the two main research problems, namely: competing through lower brokerage and not being geared towards digital channels. It proposes an analysis of historic deals to visualise trends in online brokerage rates, showing various influences while assessing whether a need exists for a new revenue model to address existing problems. 2 Figure 1.1: A brief view of the traditional brokerage model (Source: Author’s compilation) 1.2 Context of the Study As the world becomes increasingly digitally driven, customers prioritise providers who meet their changing needs, expectations, behaviours and accessibility (Fu & Mishra, 2022). This digital transformation and adoption trend has been accelerated by the COVID-19 pandemic, which affected various industries, including the financial sector (Kutnjak, 2021). The online stockbroking industry, in particular, experienced a surge in client growth, as investors preferred online platforms that catered to their needs (Ingrassia, 2021; Tan, 2021). According to Fu and Mishra (2022), the pandemic led to a remarkable surge in the daily downloads of finance-related apps, surpassing the typical growth rate by 21–25%. 3 South Africa is not excluded from this digital transformation in trading. South Africa’s Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE) moved from an open outcry market, where retail client orders were communicated to their stockbrokers and executed on the exchange floor, to electronic trading. The JSE commenced its digital transition in 1996 when it switched to an electronic trading system (Dicle & Levendis, 2013). Willing parties exchanged the opposite side of the trade in a traditional floor-based trading system executed through verbal communication. The JSE electronic trading system was additionally supported in 1997 by a real-time news service. Reporting price information was followed by the adoption of the London Stock Exchange’s digital order book, the Stock Exchange Electronic Trading Service (SETS) in 2002 (Dicle & Levendis, 2013). The Johannesburg Equities Trading system required orders to flow through the central order book unless the trade met specific off-book trading criteria1. The study by Dicle and Levendis (2013) regarding the JSE implementation of the SETS trading system showed evidence that trading activity almost doubled, and trading was more cost- effective. These are the results of digitalisation, with enhanced functionality for both retail and institutional investors. The JSE was established on the 8th of November, 1887 and is Africa's oldest, largest and most liquid stock exchange (Lukasiewicz, 2019). The JSE follows an order-driven trading model and a limit-order trading system. The JSE is also included as one of the top 20 exchanges in the world using Market Capitalization2. The JSE’s stability is essential for offshore investors, who comprise most of South Africa’s daily trading volumes3. South Africa is highly competitive from an emerging market’s perspective and earns 49% of its equity market revenues from foreign sales, ranking fourth behind Taiwan, Chile, and Korea, respectively4. Taking these matters into account, a South African online stockbroking platform will be used as a case study, which is sufficiently comprehensive from a global, emerging market and African perspective. Global trends will apply to South Africa, and the established exchange provides sufficient historical data for analysis. 1 Johannesburg Stock Exchange. (2023). Equity Rules, Rule 116.(page 44)(https://www.jse.co.za) 2 South Africa Banking & Financial Services Report: (Q3- 2023). www.fitchsolutions.com/bmi 3 Annual Results Presentation [Audited results, 9 March 2023]. www.jse.co.za 4 Goldman Sachs. (2023). EM in Focus_ South African Equities - Weighing Domestic Risk Premium Against Better Fundamentals for Exporters 4 The JSE focuses on providing direct market access to clients through its members who follow the JSE regulations5. Client orders pass directly onto the exchange, matching buy and sell orders through the exchange central limit order book. Figure 1.2 provides a visual cue of the order flows on the JSE. There is a clear illustration of the relationship between buyers and sellers and how the JSE trading system matches these orders. The JSE accounting system records all transactions, before the JSE clearing system sends the details to STRATE, the clearing and settlement authority. Figure 1.2: JSE equities market, order flow and clearing. (Source: Equities Operations | Johannesburg Stock Exchange (jse.co.za))6 5 Johannesburg Stock Exchange. (2023). Equity Rules, Rule 116. (https://www.jse.co.za) 6 Equities Operations | Johannesburg Stock Exchange (https://www.jse.co.za) 5 The South African online investing environment provides its clients direct market access to the exchange through the JSE’s central limit order book. Orders are matched against those with the best price on the screen7. In this case study, the South African parameters of trading through the central order book will remain and the study will not follow international off-book trading flows. The focus is to modify or improve how clients pay fees to better suit all stakeholders involved. Clients are charged additional fees over and above brokerage fees, including minimum transaction fees and monthly platform admin fees. These fees vary between platform providers but only make up a small portion of the total revenue earned. As equity brokerage rates are the primary source of revenue for this researcher, only those rates are accounted for in this case study. Transaction fees need to be considered by investors and traders alike and are likely to influence their choice of stockbroking provider. Woodside-Oriakhi et al. (2013) reviewed the various transaction costs applicable to executing financial assets and summarised them as fixed, variable, or a mixture of the two. Fixed costs are paid regardless of the transaction size, while variable costs are based on the transaction value (Woodside-Oriakhi et al., 2013). Globally, there has been a shift, particularly in the United States (US), to attempt to democratise trading by applying a zero brokerage or commission fee to transactions executed through online investing platforms (Tan, 2021). These platforms charge higher interest on deposits and sell their order flows to wholesalers in the market in return for a share in the spread earned. There are additional service subscriptions for premium services or tools. Robinhood, one of the pioneers of zero brokerage trading, has recently gained popularity, albeit initially launched in 2013. Robinhood was the first to market with this idea and successfully implemented its solution on a large scale, while numerous other platform providers have only recently followed in their footsteps (Berkow, 2021). A deeper dive into Robinhood’s successes and failures can illuminate where their model can be improved, mainly as pertaining to which aspects will and will not work in the South African environment. Important points need to be raised with regard to the various other fees that are charged as well as the end benefits passed 7 Johannesburg Stock Exchange. (2023). Equity Rules, Rule 116.(page 44)(https://www.jse.co.za) 6 onto the clients of brokerage saved versus the increased spread which the client ends up paying for (Berkow, 2021; Chlistalla & Lutat, 2011). Platforms such as Robinhood in the US market have primarily earned most of their revenue by receiving a share in the spread earned for their client’s order flow (Dowdy, 2023). These client orders are routed to a wholesaler who executes the orders off- exchange and gives the clients a price slightly better than seen on screen. The revenue generated from sharing in the spread earned by the wholesalers can be much greater than the brokerage charged, as clients cross the spread between the bids and the offers (Ingrassia, 2021). Business models outline how a business can create and deliver value to its clients (Teece, 2010). Looking deeper into the business architecture, Teece (2010) found that revenues and costs leading to profits are essential for enterprises to deliver value to their clients. The central theme is creating and delivering value to customers while making a profit. At the same time, Johnson et al. (2008) focus more on the customer value proposition that competing offerings do not address. The four key elements which should be integrated to form a comprehensive business model are customer value proposition, profit formula, essential resources, and critical processes (Johnson et al., 2008). Later in this research, the terms profit formula and revenue model are used interchangeably. Revenue models are the blueprint for defining enterprise success with viable architectures for revenues and costs (Teece, 2010). Sources of revenue do vary over time and across industries, while technology has been aiding in reducing costs associated with information (Teece, 2010). The multiple revenue stream approach (Teece (2010) has seen online businesses following an extension to what the cinemas used to employ, with soundtracks being sold and additional memorabilia. Johnson et al. (2008) see the revenue model as part of the overall profit formula. The overall profit formula has four components: revenue model, cost structure, margin model, and resource velocity (Johnson et al., 2008). According to Johnson et al. (2008), the revenue model components can be viewed as the product of price and volume in its most basic form. 7 The digital era has changed various aspects of accessibility to the traditional stockbroking environment, making it more accessible, convenient, and affordable for retail investors to invest in the stock market. Online investing platform developments allow individuals to invest through personal computers, mobile devices, and tablets8. The increase in online investing has changed platforms’ offerings by including mobile trading apps and linking them to investment communities, and social media where investors can learn from each other. The rise of digital environments and the introduction of new models impact older business models, and change is required to survive this disruption. In an interview on disruption, Clayton Christensen touched on three innovations that affect a business’s growth and, indirectly, its profit margin (Christensen, 2020). The efficiency innovation mentioned by Christensen, namely, ‘when companies try to do more with less’, is interpreted as reducing costs by improving practical efficiencies until a point. Efficiencies do not create new growth and will not outlast a decreasing profit margin. Significant disruptions have been brought on in this digital era in all sectors. Businesses that did not keep up with these changes, such as Eastman, Kodak and Sears, were leaders in their sector until such time as they failed to keep up with the times (Christensen, 2020). Businesses can be created by repositioning, developing new business models, or repackaging existing revenue models. This has been exemplified by successful companies such as Uber and Netflix, which have effectively addressed their customers' needs (Christensen, 2020). Traditional stockbroking revenue models were primarily based on generating revenue from brokerage or fees, namely, a transaction-based revenue model and did not include other revenue sources. Additional services include investment and trading services such as advisory, management, commissions, custodian, and earning additional interest on various products9. These revenue models were traditionally based on execution on behalf of the clients, with lower volumes, added execution risk, and less frequency, and all managed through human interaction. 8 FSCA Financial Sector Outlook Study 2022 9 Equities Rules, 116 (2023) & Market Regulation | Johannesburg Stock Exchange (https://www.jse.co.za) 8 The rise of digital technology, and especially online trading platforms, has created a need for a new revenue model. Therefore, a change is needed, as all industries are undergoing significant changes caused by digitisation10. This study has tested and developed an alternative model to collect revenue from retail investing clients who use online platforms to execute their own trades. This case study examined South African online stockbroking platforms while drawing insights from international platforms. The author analysed secondary data and developed a new platform revenue model by forecasting a fixed monthly subscription amount and comparing it against the old variable costs for retail investing clients. The aim was to replace the lost profit margins experienced from diminishing brokerage charges. 1.3 Research Problem The online stockbroking industry in South Africa faces a significant challenge in refining and changing its ways to charge clients for online platform execution services11. Traditional stockbroking revenue models were not designed for the increased competition of today’s digital era, with online platform providers lowering brokerage charges to remain competitive12. Due to the high JSE exchange costs, South African online stockbrokers cannot profit from low-value transactions unless accompanied by significantly increased volumes13. Online stockbroker revenue models need to be updated to align with other digital platform revenue models, or potentially be left uncompetitive and outdated. Profit margins earned by these online trading platforms are continually decreasing due to firms needing to reduce their brokerage to remain competitive. The reduced profitability further impacts the industry and the organisation by failing to attract top talent, who typically follow industries where profitability and earning potential are the highest (He, 2018). Based on this identified problem, two sub-problems emerged: 10 FSCA Financial Sector Outlook Study 2022 11 South Africa's Security Dealing Sector 2020: Market Challenges Poised by COVID-19 Pandemic (yahoo.com) 12 www.fitchsolutions.com/bmi (South Africa Banking & Financial Services Report Q3-2023, pg. 51) 13 www.fitchsolutions.com/bmi (South Africa Banking & Financial Services Report Q3-2023, pg. 51) 9 The current problem online stockbrokers face is they primarily compete against each other by lowering their transaction-based brokerage rates. The question that remained unanswered is: How do online stockbroking platforms replace this loss in fees? Secondly, traditional brokerage models, predating digital trading platforms, operated on lower volumes with a personalised touch, relying solely on phone or email for trade execution by a licensed broker. Retail clients in South Africa use online stockbroking platforms to trade for themselves without assistance. Previously, a stockbroker was needed to execute these needs with no alternative. Since the digitalisation of the JSE in 1996, the way clients are charged through a transaction-based fee has remained the same, while online trading capabilities have changed considerably. 1.4 Research Questions Based on the explained problems, the study’s primary aim was to explore alternative revenue and business models for online stockbrokers better suited to a digital trading environment. The following research questions were developed accordingly: Research question 1: What are the effects of trading frequency and transaction values on brokerage rates over time? Research question 2: What are the differences between the subscription-based payment model and the existing transaction-based model on brokerage rates? 1.5 Significance of the Study The findings of this research case study will assist existing online stockbroking platforms in South Africa in refining their revenue models and staying competitive while keeping their profit margins intact. This will also instil new entrants into the market with confidence, as they will be able to employ the updated platform revenue model. The research findings may also enable the regulators to fill in any gaps in legislation that might not have been considered for policy creation. Global literature covers early adopters of new revenue models in stockbroking, such as those by Robinhood, charging zero brokerage fees (Tan, 2021). 10 Moreover, the findings of this study will contribute to the academic literature on online stockbroking platforms and the various revenue models applicable in South Africa, which are currently limited. This study gauges the validity of platform models being applied to the online stockbroking industry in South Africa. Ultimately, attempting to implement the best-fitting model against historical revenue data to validate and confirm a change in the revenue model is necessary and possible. 1.6 Delimitations of the Study This study is delimited as follows: I. South Africa is geared towards on-exchange trading through the JSE’s central order book; this premise was followed, and no off-exchange solutions were considered. II. The scope of this study consisted of a new revenue model to predict fixed subscription fees that can be applied to online investing platforms in South Africa. III. Regulatory changes during the study were not considered. IV. Tax concerns are beyond the scope of this study and were not considered. 1.7 Definitions of Terms The following are the definitions of terms and key concepts of this research study. I. JSE – Johannesburg Stock Exchange, the primary exchange in South Africa. II. Business model – This describes the architecture of how businesses create and deliver value to their customers and how they extract their share of the value (Teece, 2018). III. Revenue model – This financial architecture defines how profits are made and extracts the value capture portion of the business model. Revenue models refer to how firms generate revenue within a business model (Penier et al., 2020). 11 IV. A digital platform business – This is described by Armstrong and Lee (2021) as using digital technologies to connect buyers and sellers, creating network effects, reducing frictions, allowing smoother transactions and externalising physical assets (pp 445-460). Digital platform businesses can either be in the form of industry, technology, or multi-sided platforms. V. Platform ecosystem participants – The ecosystem has five main components. Firstly, the platform owner defines the purpose, the business model and how the platform is governed. Second, the complementors provide complementary offerings. Third and fourth are the buyers and the consumers. Last is the vehicle through which the platform is accessible. Platforms must ensure constant engagement, a continuous exchange of value and data, and constant feedback between all participants (Armstrong & Lee, 2021, pp. 472–478). VI. Online stockbroking platform – This digital platform provides clients access to execute buy and sell orders through a secure platform. 1.8 Assumptions I. This study assumes that competition in South African online investing platforms is based on brokerage costs charged against deal size and the volume of trading execution. II. An assumption was made that the new revenue model can be statistically and financially tested by comparing it to historical data and modelling it to predict future trends. III. The updated revenue model will benefit clients and platform providers. Clients will select the model with the best value. 1.9 Chapter Outline Chapter 1 starts with the purpose of this study, which explores the idea of an alternative revenue model for South African online investing platforms. This chapter outlines the basics of a business model, described by Teece (2018) as an architecture of how businesses create value for clients and extract their profits. The background introduces the core themes contained in the study, including stockbroking, pricing, platform models, and international trends in stockbroking. 12 Chapter 2 consists of a systematic literature review, followed by Chapter 3, which describes the research methodology deployed. Chapter 4 presents the research findings and discusses these findings. Chapter 5 presents the author's conclusions, various recommendations, and areas for future research. 13 CHAPTER 2: LITERATURE REVIEW 2.1 Introduction This chapter follows a systematic approach described by Kitchenham and Charters (2007) as identifying, evaluating and synthesising the available research. This literature review examines available research in relation to the aim of this study. Relevant theories are explored to delve deeper into the primary aim of exploring alternative revenue models in stockbroking in South Africa. The background introduces relevant topics and themes to guide and address the research questions. Revenue models are discussed, with business models being crucial in choosing pricing mechanisms. International literature is reviewed for variety and reach, as well as South African literature, to guide the best-in-class approach when aligning the South African perspective. The review also focuses on digital platforms, the required ecosystems, and their relevance to the stockbroking industry. A theoretical overview of prospect theory (PT) is carried out, as well as its applicability to address the research question on customer decision-making behaviour. This chapter concludes with research question summaries, the literature’s conceptual framework, and an analytical overview of connecting variables. 2.2 Background of the Study The primary motivation of this study is to change how online stockbroking businesses charge clients in South Africa. The first sign of digitisation of the exchange in South Africa occurred in 1996 when the JSE transitioned towards being fully electronic for trading functionality (Dicle & Levendis, 2013). There is a need for South African online stockbroking platform providers to further develop, match and implement the relevant international best practices to remain relevant and competitive. The JSE’s automated trading system, now known as TradeElect, licensed by the London Stock Exchange, processes this order-driven market (Wyk et al., 2015). The JSE central order book accepts orders from investors through a registered JSE broker through TradeElect, where it matches automatically with an opposite order (Wyk et al., 2015). Globally, equity markets are considered vital in the financial system as a whole and are a critical source of finance in the real economy (Wyk et al., 2015). Equity 14 markets are essential for the financial system, and the role of stockbrokers in facilitating a viable platform for clients’ needs to be understood and geared towards long-term sustainability in the new digitally-driven environment. South African Policy and Regulation The Financial Services Conduct Authority (FSCA) oversees the regulation and supervision of the securities exchange of South Africa. Their aim is to ensure capital markets are efficient, fair, and transparent by providing a regulatory framework for stock exchanges to conduct business. This ensures investors can buy and sell shares in a conducive environment14. The FSCA sets the guiding framework of the Financial Markets Act 19 of 2012, which is the overarching requirement for stockbrokers to abide by, and which the JSE equity rules expand on15. The Financial Markets Act requires a stockbroker to be an authorised user and sets the standard on pricing and fees. This includes two rules: 1. Stockbrokers ‘must disclose to their clients the fees for their services, which disclosure must give the specific monetary amount for each service rendered; or if such amount is not pre- determinable, the basis of the calculation’. 2. Stockbrokers ‘may charge a fee for different categories of transactions. The JSE expands further on how stockbrokers’ price their fees in terms of the JSE equity rules: • A mutually agreed fee may be charged to the client in advance of such a transaction. • Profits are to come only from agreed commissions or fees. • In respect of a transaction other than the agreed commission or fee, full disclosure and accurate information about the fees and charges is required. • Fees and charges are to be reflected in specific monetary terms. International retail trading apps such as Robinhood have become immensely popular in the US, attracting both first-time and experienced investors. These new applications offer enhanced convenience and reduced trading expenses, which disrupt conventional brokerage business models by providing zero commissions (Tan, 2021). 14 Financial Markets Act 19 of 2012 15 Johannesburg Stock Exchange. (2023). Equity Rules, Rule 116.(https://www.jse.co.za) 15 Stock exchanges and brokers address the fundamental issues investors face by reducing information asymmetries by publishing prices, providing infrastructure, and matching buyer and seller transactions (Feyen et al., 2021). To stay competitive against big technology companies, financial institutions have had to embrace new technologies and break down the production of financial services to improve their efficiency (Feyen et al., 2021). As equity markets become entirely digitally driven, updating business and revenue models will become vital to unlocking value and exploring the latest trends, such as platform business models. Platforms can be seen as intermediaries that allow and provide for exchange between participants who deploy the use of platforms (Goldfarb & Tucker, 2019). Platforms can monopolise supply- and demand-side economies of scale while pursuing a winner-takes-all position (Croxson et al., 2021). This study determines if the current traditional transaction-based pricing model for stockbroking platforms would be better replaced by a subscription-based model. 2.2.1 Introduction to Business Models Historically, business strategy and traditional measures such as resourced-based views dominated the literature. During the past two decades, the literature has shifted to the business model as a unique concept spurred on by the growth of the internet and e-commerce (Teece, 2010). In the past, strategy theories that preceded business models, such as the resource-based view of the firm or its positioning, posited that value creation was only a result of producers and not customers. This approach focused on supply-side factors and a single competitive advantage (Barney & Arikan, 2005; Porter, 1996; Porter & Kramer, 2011). A company's business model refers to the framework it uses to manage the critical aspects of providing value to customers, receiving payment for that value, and converting it into profit. This definition, coined by Teece (2010), encompasses a business's overall structure and strategy. According to various scholars, the value proposition of a company shapes its business model, including the manner in which it creates and captures value for its clientele (Massa, Tucci & Afuah, 2017). Teece (2018) further narrows down his reasoning on business models to focus on identifying the target customers and the methods of revenue generation. Strong dynamic capabilities, 16 organisational design and business models work together and are seen as interdependent functions of each other for success (Teece, 2018). Teece (2018) considers the interactions between these as the central theme, where solid dynamic capabilities enable the effective implementation of business models. Saebi et al. (2017) bring an adapted dimension into the business model literature, as the management adapts their business model to the changing environment. According to research, businesses tend to change their business models more readily in response to threatening conditions rather than perceived opportunities (Saebi et al., 2017). Depending on the perceived threat, these adaptions to the business model can be large or small. Internal and external forces influence a business model’s environment. Ramdani, Binsaif, Boukrami and Guermat (2020) summarise past literature elaborating on internal and external challenges. According to Ramdani et al. (2020), there are two internal challenges that affect the business model: top management and organisational culture. A business can face seven external obstacles that may impact its operations. These include crises, client demands, regulatory changes, advancements in technology, competitive pressures, and industry/service provider influences that affect the overall environment (Ramdani et al., 2020). To provide clarity of underlying components within the business model, drawing from Schön (2012), a modular approach assists in graphically showing the interactions. Figure 2.1: Capgemini Consulting Business Model Framework. (Source: Schön, 2012) 17 The linkages between the three central dimensions: value proposition, revenue model and cost model, are shown in Figure 2.1. In each dimension, relevant influencing factors, such as pricing logic and the specific channel to market within the revenue dimension, are linked to the overall synergy they produce (Schön, 2012). The literature builds a foundation of how businesses and business models must be adapted from a broader perspective then just a single approach. David Teece pioneered the early thinking of business models in the digital era and separated these models from being termed strategy (Saebi et al., 2017). There can be minor or significant adaptations made to a business model depending on one’s circumstance, as Saebi et al. (2017) posited, while Linnenluecke (2017) shows that sticking to one’s core business model through all occasions can work. With the advent of digitisation, the stockbroking industry has undergone significant changes. A more drastic approach to the business model is necessary to remain relevant and meet customers' evolving needs. A redesign of the revenue model can address these needs. 2.2.2 Introduction to Revenue Models According to Clauss (2017), businesses can capture financial value by exploring alternative revenue streams, adjusting their pricing strategies, and evaluating their profitability and sustainability. Clauss (2017) takes this one step further, where attention is drawn to changing business models by introducing new cost structures, particularly new revenue models. In a business model, the value capture aspect is determined by the revenue model applied to determine its financial success and by adjusting revenue streams and cost structures to be optimal (Vaska et al., 2020). Ramdani et al. (2020) compiled an interesting study across numerous business divisions within the financial sector, and of particular interest is the asset management division within which stockbroking is a crucial activity. The value proposition is the essential dimension with notable important sub-dimensions, including revenue streams, where it was found fee-based models are the most dominant (Ramdani et al., 2020). The stock brokerage division responded to four challenges: new technology, crises, client demands and competitive pressure. It addressed them by deploying multi-brokerage models, charging clients trading commissions, and lending revenues (Ramdani et al., 2020). The revenue streams in the investment banking division were 18 not consistent and were determined on a per-deal basis, including fixed fees, transaction-based fees, and success fees (Ramdani et al., 2020). Vaska et al. (2020) relay a final finding on value capture, asserting that transaction- based revenue models are not viable for long-term application. If no further action is taken and transaction-based revenue is examined in isolation, Vaska and colleague’s findings will be considered accurate according to this research study. The reality is that there will be slight adjustments made throughout the business’s life cycle, as affirmed by Clauss (2017), who found that adjustments in some way or form should be made to impact either cost or revenue structures. 2.2.3 Introduction to Global Trends in Online Stockbroking Recently, there has been a rise in retail trading activity due to the increasing popularity of financial technology (FinTech) apps used for investing, including Robinhood, a well- known US-based retail trading app (Tan, 2021). These new retail trading clients use apps such as Robinhood due to lowered trading costs and increased convenience, disrupting traditional brokerage models with zero-commission trades (Tan, 2021). This speaks to the US households reflecting their financial culture, which embraces more aggressive risk-taking and actively managing their investments (Fligstein & Goldstein, 2015). First-time investors rushed to join zero-cost platforms such as Robinhood to play the ‘game’ of speculation, with the platform’s user-friendly interfaces and focus on user engagement, which lures them into this gamified trading space (Tan, 2021). According to Lazaro and Verges' (2022) timeline, the impact of digitalisation on brokerage charges in the US is evident. The timeline reveals that with the emergence of day traders and a shift towards online trading, commission charges have now been reduced to zero, with 25% of trades now being conducted online. South Africa is a laggard regarding these global trends; the country is experiencing diminishing brokerage charges to remain competitive as online trading increases. However, South Africa has not reached zero-brokerage trading. Section 2.3 presents various themes that have the most significant impact on alternative revenue models in stockbroking. 19 2.3 Alternative Revenue Models in Stockbroking The literature provides an overview of the challenges and applications that are particularly relevant to the revenue models in stockbroking. Several themes are highlighted, the most pertinent of which are expanded. 2.3.1 The Influence of Pricing All businesses aim to create a price model that effectively entices customers to pay for their products or services. The price model should be configured to ensure a steady influx of revenue while delivering long-term value to the customers (Petri, 2014). In a study by Petri (2014), a slight change in the price model resulted in a radical shift in the business model itself. The evidence showed that changes could affect cash flow by shifting dimensions within the price model (Petri, 2014). According to Penier et al. (2020), a revenue model refers to how a business generates income. According to Penier et al. (2020), the earned revenue model involves providing a service and charging a fee to generate revenue for the business. Critical dimensions for a price model are clearly described by Petri (2014) in Figure 2.2, along with a description of the five key attributes. Figure 2.2: Five critical dimensions of configuring a price model. (Source: Petri, 2014, p. 5) 20 In Figure 2.2, the scope of the offering refers to either a single attribute being paid for, or a package of bundled items being bought together. The next dimension, the pricing base, was influenced by cost, and the customer or competitor information was used to price in the second dimension. The third dimension, influence, relates to buyer or seller negotiation over the price, with exogenous pricing beyond their control. The price formula connects volume and price and their specific combinations to determine a final price. The fifth and final dimension, temporal right, relates to the customer’s time frame, with perpetual being the longest and pay-per-use the shortest. According to Petri (2014), the pricing in Figure 2.2 is a reliable and effective method for creating sustainable and profitable revenue streams, which can significantly improve the overall business model. In transaction markets, platforms can generate revenue from people joining the platform and using it by sharing in the monetary value (Filistrucchi et al., 2014). Fees can be divided into two categories: transaction-based fees, which are simply transaction fees, and service-based fees, consisting of service, connection and membership fees (Kemppainen et al., 2018). Modifying the price formula must be considered to address the research objective of whether an alternative revenue model is better than the traditional stockbroking brokerage model. A net monthly fixed subscription could be implemented as opposed to the current fixed fee plus a fee per transaction. This small change could have a significant impact on the industry. Petri (2014) states that to adjust the price model to have the desired effect, it should consider the overall business model and attempt to amplify and enhance its core features. Business models in resilient firms deal with challenges quicker, recover faster, and develop different or non-conventional ways of working while under pressure (Linnenluecke, 2017). South African stockbroking businesses still in existence can be described as resilient firms, as defined by Linnenluecke (2017). Stockbroking fees in South Africa are primarily transaction-based fees, described by Kemppainen et al. (2018) as one of the primary categories of fees. Looking at Petri (2014) and the success achieved by changing the price formula, this could have the desired effect, namely, increasing the sustainability of online stockbroking platforms. The next theme presents digitalisation as a catalyst for global change, linking the traditional stockbroking business model 21 poised for transformation and highlighting the importance of exploring alternative revenue models. 2.3.2 Digital Transformation and its Impact on the Financial Industry The role of technological innovation in driving economic growth and industrial transformation is widely acknowledged. Rapid speed and constant evolution bring transformative changes (Gomber et al., 2018). Digital transformation harnesses new technology, allowing firms to capture value through platforms and improve customer relationships (Gomber et al., 2018). Vaska et al. (2020) identified four value creation dynamics brought on by digital transformation; the most relevant to stockbroking would be the revision and extension of existing services online and the offering of new value propositions precisely how clients want them. In the financial sector, disruptive technologies are employed against traditional business models to facilitate sustainability and harness the sharing economy (Vaska et al., 2020). The cost of digital technology can impact economic actions, while digital economics aims to study how cost changes can alter economic models (Goldfarb & Tucker, 2019). Digital environments offer numerous benefits, such as reduced search costs, almost costless digital replication, individual behaviour tracking, and digital verification. These factors combine to create significant cost savings and improve overall economies (Goldfarb & Tucker, 2019). Liu et al. (2011) described digital transformation or ‘digitalisation’ best by stating it as integrating digital technologies into business processes. This aligns with the problems outlined in Chapter One with stockbroking revenue models not accounting for the digital era. In today's digital world, businesses must utilise digital technologies and platforms to gather and integrate data in order to stay competitive in platform economies (Petrakaki et al., 2018). The goal of digital transformation is to enhance an organisation by initiating changes through communication, information, computing, and connective technologies (Vial, 2019). Daugherty et al. (2016) have stated that platform-based business models are the most significant change in the world since the 18th century Industrial Revolution. 22 South Africa, an emerging market economy such as Taiwan, allowed its first electronic trading through the exchange in 1996 (Dicle & Levendis, 2013). These two markets are good for comparative reasons across this study while looking to the US and Europe for best-in-class examples in the stockbroking industry. Lin et al. (2021) analysed the online stockbrokers in Taiwan, who first allowed an online electronic transaction on 17 October 1997, where the order rate only accounted for 0.02% of stock exchange transactions. Taiwanese’s online stockbrokers comprised 53 firms in 2020, and their electronic orders accounted for 65% of overall market turnover, with commission- based transactions accounting for 60% of transactions and brokerage fees accounting for 70% of the overall revenue (Lin et al., 2021). The study by Lin et al. (2021) discovered that many online stockbrokers offer brokerage discounts to entice customers, diminishing their overall efficiency value. FinTech has positively impacted the stockbroking industry, as brokers can now provide electronic trading and other valuable services. According to Lin et al. (2021), there has been notable growth in this area. The next theme explores how Robinhood, the global leader in online stockbroking platforms, became a market leader and disrupted traditional stockbroking models in the US. 2.3.3 International Stockbroking Platform Robinhood is Setting Global Trends New technologies have made online trading more accessible for younger investors, democratising and revolutionising private retail investing and changing its ecosystem (Ingrassia, 2021). According to Tripathi and Rengifo (2023), the Robinhood Effect, which involves increased trading activity and stock holdings facilitated by the popular trading platform Robinhood and its fractional trading capabilities, has resulted in a significant influx of $53 billion in new investments into the stock market. In Chapter One, it was mentioned that Robinhood's zero-brokerage model is a critical factor in attracting investors. Robinhood sells its clients' order flow and receives payment to compensate for the revenue lost from not charging brokerage fees. A closer look at the payment for order flow is required for completeness. Payment for order flow (PFOF) is the revenue earned by a broker-dealer (i.e., Robinhood Financial LLC) for routing information to a market maker (i.e., Citadel LLC) from their online stockbroking platform on their client orders (Ingrassia, 2021). 23 Platforms such as Robinhood receive trading revenue via PFOF, allowing them to charge zero brokerage on their client’s trades. This trend is also occurring with other major online platform providers, who are altering their traditional brokerage models to zero-brokerage models and finding alternate means to generate returns (Ingrassia, 2021). Robinhood declares its revenue through these streams: rebates from market makers and trading venues (PFOF), subscriptions, margin interest, stock loans, income generated from cash, and cash management16. Many trades made by retail investors occur off-exchange. In these cases, the broker's inventory is used to match orders, or they are sold to a wholesaler (Eaton et al., 2022). Retail trading that takes place outside of exchanges is known as dark pool or dark market trading. Such trades must be reported to the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority within a span of 10 seconds (Eaton et al., 2022). A study by Pagano, Sedunov and Velthuis (2021) on the realised spread between the buying and selling prices based on Robinhood’s user activity showed that the greater the retail client participation, the more market quality and lower costs were achieved. The impact on share price is also higher with increased user activity in regular periods, showing their users can affect price, which indicates lower market quality (Pagano et al., 2021). According to a recent study by Pagano et al. (2021), the participation of retail investors in financial markets can significantly affect trading quality, especially during times of market stress. Hence, institutional investors and regulators must take note of this finding. Other ways of addressing the expense of trading in the equity market include trading through additional or alternative exchanges that charge lower exchange fees, such as the Chi-X exchange in Europe (Chlistalla & Lutat, 2011). South Africa has also attempted to address these high exchange cost inefficiencies by starting three alternate exchanges: ZARX, A2X and the CPT exchange17. There has been no attempt to sell order flow in South Africa to market makers such as in the developed countries with higher transaction volumes and values. South African retail investors trade on- 16 https://robinhood.com/us/en/support/articles/how-robinhood-makes-money/ 17 www.fitchsolutions.com/bmi (South Africa Banking & Financial Services Report Q3-2023, pg. 51) 24 screen through the JSE central order book and do not trade off-exchange through their brokers, who abide by the JSE member exchange rules18. Hypothesis 1: There is no relationship between time periods, trading frequency and market conditions and their effect on brokerage rates. To address the research question of whether an alternative revenue model will be better suited than the traditional transaction-based revenue model, hypothesis 1 is tested on the relationship between the time periods, trading frequency and market conditions. To test this hypothesis, the author analysed 10-year historical secondary data on time periods, trading frequency, transaction amounts, and brokerage rates. 2.4 Platform Business Models are Suitable for Stockbroking The literature provides an overview of challenges and applications most relevant to different platform-based business models. Although numerous challenges are mentioned, the most significant are described below. The author expands on the brief introduction to platform models provided in Chapter One’s introduction and the background provided earlier in Chapter Two. In their book, Armstrong and Lee (2021) mentioned three major platform types to pay attention to: internal product platforms, industry (or technology) platforms and multi-sided market platforms (pp 445-460). Each platform type has a value focus area, internal or external, with upstream or downstream participation and various key success factors (Armstrong & Lee, 2021, pp. 472-478). The critical success factors highlighted here are ecosystem value opportunities, network effects, innovation and asset externalisation and frictionless transactions (Armstrong & Lee, 2021, pp. 445-478). The next platform model theme with relevance to stockbroking is the universal success factors which apply to all industries. 18 Johannesburg Stock Exchange. (2023). Equity Rules, Rule 116. (https://www.jse.co.za) 25 2.4.1 Critical Success Factors of Platforms’ Business Models According to Rohn, Bican, Brem, Kraus and Clauss (2021), the network of participants on a platform and their information exchange interactions are the most important intangible assets for facilitating transactions. Creating value within a platform context involves leveraging the platform's technology and network externalities to facilitate connections between participants, whether on a business-to-business or consumer basis (Rohn et al., 2021). When determining the price structure of platforms, three factors come into play, namely: the relative size of cross-group externalities, the type of model used (subscription or payment-per-transaction), and whether or not the customer uses multiple platforms to complete the desired activity (Rohn et al., 2021). Figure 2.3 extends the three traditional business model factors, including start-up culture, platform architecture and the advocation of digital transformation to achieve success in a platform business model (Rohn et al., 2021). Figure 2.3: Critical success factors on platform-based business models. (Source: Rohn et al., 2021) 26 2.4.2 Network Effects The network effect refers to the influence that a particular number of platform users have on the value generated by every new user, which can be either positive or negative (Parker et al., 2016). Stated differently using Metcalf’s law, the value of the network grows non-linearly as the number of users of a network increases as users can now connect (Parker et al., 2016). Network effects are enhanced and exaggerated through frictionless entry and the ability to scale rapidly, maximising its value-building impact (Parker et al., 2016). Network effects occur when at least two or more participants are connected to a platform to interact with one another (Rohn et al., 2021). Croxson et al. (2021) summed it up best, stating that greater market power and the ability to leverage this power come with the increased market size. Tipping effects can be used to build market momentum and, in so doing, achieve platform leadership (Armstrong & Lee, 2021). Looking at the stockbroking industry in South Africa, a community network effect has not yet been effectively taken advantage of by existing stockbroking platform providers. Technology progression has threatened many industries’ business continuity and rendered established business models obsolete, seeing new tech giants such as Amazon, Uber and Alibaba reorganising and renewing the market (Niemimaa et al., 2019). The world's most prominent players and giants such as Walmart and Target were forced to innovate their business models or fade into non-existence (Niemimaa et al., 2019). To achieve sustainability and success in platforms, certain factors must be considered. These include reaching a critical mass, facing competition, thriving in winner-takes-all markets, and fostering collaboration within business ecosystems. Ruutu et al. (2017) summarise that end users, developers, and service providers all form part of the requirements for gaining critical mass for self-sustaining growth and scaling a platform successfully. Internet-based platforms have crucial roles regarding the applicability and use of data and the corresponding network effects of end users where data accumulation can be substantial (Ruutu et al., 2017). Specific South African stockbroking platforms can be seen as having already achieved a critical mass for survival. These internet-based platforms need to extract relevant data and focus on exploiting network effects from 27 existing users to scale and grow exponentially. From this description, stockbroking platforms can be viewed as internet-based platforms. 2.4.3 Movement from Traditional Business Models to Platform Business Models The dynamics of two-sided platform markets are shaped by various factors, including the platform's structure and the frequency and value of user transactions on the platform, and not solely determined by the fees charged (Rochet & Tirole, 2006). The swift expansion of FinTech and big tech companies into finance has led banks and financial institutions to adopt platform models to keep pace, utilising client data and automation to provide various third-party services tailored to multiple client groups and markets (Croxson et al., 2021). In platform markets, when more users are attracted, the average cost per user decreases, and the average return increases. The willingness of users to join a more comprehensive platform increases revenue (Croxson et al., 2021). Interoperability or multi-homing plays an important role, allowing users to interact with others on different platforms; even if just a particular group of users within a platform (Croxson et al., 2021). In financial services, this could entail using interoperable payment systems, which allows for excellent efficiency. The stockbroking industry could use different stock exchanges or various financial products on a platform. The end user’s willingness to transact on a platform is influenced by the platform’s membership, usage, and variable and fixed charges, ultimately determining the end- user presence on the platform (Rochet & Tirole, 2006). Fixed fees such as membership or platform fees could be the most efficient way to capture end-user surplus; these fixed fees are in place to cover the platform’s costs (Rochet & Tirole, 2006). Platform-based business models find that their primary income source is subscription fees (Croxson et al., 2021). This fee income closely fits the match-making business model, requiring little funding, balance sheet, regulation or supervision, with the core value coming from their network and data (Croxson et al., 2021). Online platforms can utilise their customers' data and advanced algorithms to determine everyone’s reservation price and offer personalised pricing slightly below that threshold. This practice, known as ‘value-extracting innovation’, may be considered monopolistic conduct, according to Croxson et al. (2021). 28 Many financial institutions are transitioning from traditional business models to those used by FinTech and big tech companies. These financial institutions generate revenue through fees instead of relying on net interest income. However, this shift requires significant investment in digital technologies to collect and analyse big data to personalise offers, such as what big tech platforms do (Croxson et al., 2021). According to Croxson et al. (2021), platform-based banks now generate almost 40% of their revenue from fees and non-interest income, where previously their revenue was dominated by interest income as the sole source of banking revenue. In contrast, their peers are only extracting 33% from this avenue. This shift is attributed to these banks investing 50% more than their peers in technology, data processing, and communication as a percentage of their overall expenditure. Figure 2.4 displays banks with platform business models in red against competing banks with more total assets above 50 billion USD in blue. Figure 2.4: Revenue mix and technology investments in banks adopting platform models (Source: Croxson et al., 2021) Looking at this global trend of adopting platform models, South Africa cannot be far behind and should consider adopting platform business models. As international financial institutions' structures change when they adopt platform models, this change is needed in the South African stockbroking industry to remain competitive. The author uses PT to determine if clients prefer a fixed monthly subscription-based pricing structure or the stockbroking industry's traditional fixed fee per transaction model. 29 2.5 Theoretical Framework 2.5.1 Application of Prospect Theory (PT) In 1979, Kahneman and Tversky's research paper on decision-making under risk showed experimental proof of disregarding expected utility; their research is known as prospect theory (PT) (Barberis, 2013). This original work was updated in 1992, known as the ‘cumulative prospect theory’, and is still considered the best description of how people evaluate risk in experimental settings (Barberis, 2013). Kahneman and Tversky’s work was designed as a substitute for the expected utility theory, which did not consider how individuals make decisions in risk situations (Edwards, 1996). Barberis (2013) summarises the four critical elements of PT: I. Reference dependence – used from gains and losses measured relative to a reference point. II. Loss aversion – value function, where individuals are more sensitive to losses. III. Diminishing sensitivity – value function towards a gain is concave and convex for losses. IV. Probability weighting – overweight low probabilities and underweights higher probabilities. Chang and Nichols (1987) use PT in their tax audit risk paper, demonstrating the applicability to payments and not merely income, where a tax payment can be perceived as a gain or a loss depending on the individual. In their research, Kőszegi and Rabin (2009) emphasise the significance of reference points and how they relate to loss aversion in PT. Specifically, they explore the difference between anticipated and realised consumption affecting reference points. Drake and Freedman (1993) found that extra time and effort are applied when a considerable percentage discount or savings are likely to be gained. Their finding presented an alternative perspective to PT, which asserts that an individual's decision is influenced solely by the percentage of the discount. A shortcoming identified by Edwards (1996) was that the predictive ability of PT found limited support in earlier work when applying the theory. 30 The author used PT to analyse user behaviour on a trading platform, comparing fixed monthly subscription and transaction-based pricing models to determine which one user’s thought was of greater value. Alike to Chang and Nichols (1987), the author has shown that paying a fee structure that aligns with personal preferences can be advantageous for individuals and seen as a gain. 2.6 Conclusion of Literature Review 2.6.1 Summary of Findings on Alternative Revenue Models in Stockbroking Digital technology must be embraced and adapted to the stockbroking business’s unique environment. Adjusting the stockbroking business revenue collection method is essential to compete in this digital environment and to remain relevant. Robinhood has set the trend in the US, where zero-brokerage costs have become a way to compete with all major traditional brokerage houses following in their footsteps to remain competitive (Pagano et al., 2021). Petri (2014) shows that a slight change in pricing can have significant industry impacts. 2.6.2 Summary of Findings on Platform Business Models While platform-based business models are new, there has been a definite trend towards their adoption from traditional business models across various industries. A common theme for successful platform businesses is the harnessing of network effects, externalising assets, exploiting big data, and a drive towards a winner-takes- all competition (Croxson et al., 2021; Rohn et al., 2021; Ruutu et al., 2017). The South African stockbroking industry is dominated by traditional banks, offering stockbroking as an additional service. Banks and financial institutions have globally adopted a platform-based business model (Croxson et al., 2021). The South African stockbroking industry should adopt a platform-based business model to remain competitive. The conceptual framework in Figure 2.5 outlines the key themes and concepts that have surfaced in the literature review. At the same time, the analytical framework (Figure 2.6) expands on the PT and variables that will influence and lead to a customer choosing a monthly subscription fee or not. 31 Figure 2.5: Conceptual Framework (Source: Author’s compilation) Figure 2.6: Analytical Framework (Source: Author’s compilation) 32 33 Chapter 3: Research Methodology 3.1 Research Approach This research adopted a case study approach from a quantitative perspective to address the primary research objective, namely: to assess the viability of alternative revenue models for stockbroking in South Africa. According to Creswell and Creswell (2018), quantitative research involves using numerical data to explore relationships between variables and develop and test theories (pp.38-47). The author used secondary data from a South African bank to analyse historic brokerage data and then mathematically model over a newly proposed subscription or fixed monthly pricing model. The aim was to closely match the revenue generated from the traditional variable transaction-based model with a new fixed monthly subscription-based model. In this case study, the author adopted a positivist approach. This approach enabled a scientific and objective data analysis, essential for replication and generalisability, but which disregards subjectivity. This research has relied on systematic data collection, hypothesis testing through experimentation, and verification of results in alignment with the positivism paradigm (Grant & Giddings, 2002). 3.2 Research Design This case study analysed the relationship between brokerage fees and independent variables such as time periods, trading frequency, and transaction value. The author used a cross-sectional design when performing descriptive and inferential analysis on data collected over 10 years from 2013 to 2023 in a South African bank. This case study followed a time-series design based on secondary data with no influence. Using correlation-based analysis to draw causal inferences with the help of logic assisted with comparing the actual observations and drawing conclusions (Edmondson & Mcmanus, 2007). This effectively addressed the primary aim of exploring alternative revenue and business models better suited to a digital trading environment. This research has encompassed experimental and descriptive research designs while concluding with a time-series analysis for completeness. Essential concepts focused 34 on included validity and whether the research set out to measure what it intended to accomplish (Field, 2018, pp.15-16). 3.3 Data Collection Methods A South African bank granted the author access to historical client brokerage and transaction data for stockbroking clients and brokerage fees over 10 years for the purpose of analysis. The dataset included actual brokerage data from client transactions, including trade execution time and frequency. All available brokerage data was initially extracted from a database running an SQL query, extracting available data in an Excel file for upload and evaluation in the IBM Statistical Programme for Social Sciences (SPSS) program. Brokerage fees per transaction were the primary variable extracted. The data was extracted and analysed in secured environments with no distribution or access to anyone other than the author. 3.4 Population and Sampling 3.4.1 Population This case study was conducted on a South African bank focusing on its stockbroking division. Client characteristics included registered stockbroking accounts where clients executed shares themselves through the online platform (directly on the JSE while excluding ring-fenced clients belonging to third parties). This client database consisted of 334,000 online transactions starting from January 2013 and ending on 8 September 2023. The 10-year historical period aligns with when the business started growing its online stockbroking functionality and the financial industry became more digitally- driven and dependent. 3.4.2 Sample and Sampling Method The author used the entire population as the sample, as the dataset was readily available for analysis upon extraction. The author implemented a census sampling design for the population of 334,000 transactions over the period to ensure precision, eliminate sample error, and explore relationships within subsets. Potential concerns with the dataset included issues of quality and population biases. The nature, quantum, and volatility of the daily trade data collected from 2013 to 2022 influenced 35 the decision to group the data into yearly intervals and apply a cross-sectional design when analysing descriptive and inferential statistics. 3.5 Descriptions of Variables The Chi-square test was used to measure the association between the dependent and independent variables and the difference between their expected and observed frequencies. Chi-squared: 𝜒2 = ∑ (𝑂−𝐸)2 𝐸 𝑛 𝑖=1 ……………………………………………………………….Equation 2 Where: 𝜒2 is the test statistic, O is the observed value, and E is the expected value. Foundations of Prospect Theory: Understanding Client Choices Exploring the Equation of Value Determination: Where V represents the ultimate value selected by clients, each decision is influenced by the probability (p) and the weighted decision factor π(p). Under the condition that p + q equals 1, the equation incorporates the relationship x > y > 0 or x < Y < 0. V(x,p:y,q) = v(y) + π(p)[v(x) – v(y)]…………………………………………Equation 1 Hypothesis 2: There is no difference for South African stockbroking clients when choosing a payment option. Using Equation 1 and adding a riskless component (remaining on the same brokerage rate) and a risky component (changing to a new subscription model) will predict a determinable value in the client’s view. A new subscription-based model was based on the historical secondary data collected and analysed. Based on the client's current 36 brokerage rate, PT values each hypothesis, and the client chooses the outcome with the highest value (V). H2a: Stockbroking clients will prefer to pay a fixed monthly subscription. H2b: Stockbroking clients prefer to pay a transaction-based fee per transaction. Using the prospect theory (PT) discussed in Chapter Two, clients could choose between a new subscription fee or the old transaction-based model. Based on PT, clients will choose the highest value (V), and each choice is the probability (p) and weighted decision 𝜋(𝑝) if p + q = 1, then x >y>0, or x