Maintaining plant diversity of a species-rich montane grassland system in the face of global change by Paul Jan Gordijn (1511172) Thesis Submitted in fulfilment of the requirements for the degree Doctor of Philosophy in Ecological Sciences in the Faculty of Science, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa Supervisor: Prof. Timothy G. O’Connor Co-supervisor: Francesca Parrini February, 2022 Abstract The rich grassland-plant diversity of the Drakensberg mountain region, which has persisted under heterogeneous fire and herbivory regimes, and significant fluctuations in climate, has come to face its most formidable threat—land transformation, which involves habitat destruction and land use intensification. Over the last ca. 200 years, human settlement in the northern Drakensberg study area, the Mdedelelo-Cathkin landscape in South Africa, has markedly increased, but the influence of human pressure on plant diversity has been largely unexplored, leaving an uncertain future for this biodiversity. This thesis aimed to reduce uncertainty around the influence of socio-ecological systems, represented by communal, private and protected land tenure systems, on grassland habitat and associated plant diversity. Analysis of changes in land use and land cover and field-based sampling of plant diversity revealed a conservation conundrum. Although grassland-plant diversity was maintained at higher levels on private systems, these systems were especially vulnerable to transformation. And while communal systems were less vulnerable to transformation, they were associated with heavy-continuous grazing that transformed grasslands into a novel state depauperate of plant diversity. Protected systems were, however, largely successful in maintaining primary grasslands, and their plant diversity. On these systems, where fire is the principal disturbance agent, the previously unexplored, multidecadal influence of heterogeneous fire regimes, was explored. A novel characterisation of heterogeneity in fire-return intervals and season of burning identified a threat of increasing fire regime homogeneity. The influence of socio-ecological systems, and their particular fire and herbivory disturbance regimes were framed by a construct termed, “socio-ecological disturbance regimes” (S-EDRs), which successfully reflected the interconnected nature of human society, disturbance regimes, and plant diversity. The transformation of a quarter of the landscape’s primary grassland over the 71-year period of assessment should draw urgent attention from conservationists and society. The S-EDR framework highlighted the critical responsibility society has in maintaining plant diversity. For the conservation of grassland-plant diversity a cross-societal approach is necessary, valuable plant diversity was found across the socio-ecological systems evaluated. Moreover, protecting Drakensberg-grassland ecosystems and their plant diversity will contribute to the global effort to mitigate the looming influence of climate change. i Dedication To my wife, two daughters, and the mountain breeze ( !ח²וּר ). ii Acknowledgements The privilege of this work would not have been possible without the support of my dear wife, Nicky, and her enthusiasm for the Drakensberg mountains. Also, the encouragement from my family, of whom, my parents instilled in me an appreciation for these mountains. The incredible support from my SAEON colleagues, Kent, Siphiwe, Busii, Michele, and especially Sue, is much appreciated. Field-sampling adventures with Thami Shezi, Sinethemba Ntshangase, and Andrew Steele, were just that, an adventure, thank you. I am also grateful for the support of my EKZNW colleagues, particularly, Debbie Jewitt, Sonja Kruger, Mark Robertson, Ian Rushworth, Eleste Hadebe, and Clint Carbutt. I am indebted to those who explored the plant diversity of Drakensberg long before me, in particular, Donald Killick, who left the legacy of the D.H.K. herbarium. Moreover, Ed Granger, for his establishment of vegetation plots in the study area. Terry and Colin Everson as well, played an instrumental role in this area and were open-handed with both their knowledge and coffee. The generosity of Tim, my chief supervisor, with his time, calculated instruction, and passion for the Drakensberg, has made this journey of learning especially valuable—thank you. And, thank you, Francesca, for comments on drafts and ready assistance with administration. iii Declaration I declare that this thesis is my own, unaided work. It is being submitted for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy at the University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg. It has not been submitted before for any degree or examination at any other University. Candidate signature: Paul J. Gordijn on the 16th day of February 2022, at Mountain Homes, Hilton. iv Contents 1 Introduction 1 1.1 Aims and objectives . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 1.2 Thesis structure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 2 The ‘eco-story’ of a mountain range: acquiring perspective on Drakensberg plant diversity and global change 11 2.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11 2.2 Study area: abiotic template . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12 2.2.1 Geology, soils, and topography . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12 2.2.2 Climate . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16 2.3 Drakensberg plant diversity: origins, drivers, and disturbance regimes . . . . . 17 2.3.1 Climate and fire: palaeoecological drivers in grassland . . . . . . . . . 18 2.3.2 High-altitude alpine grassland diversity: Cape fynbos elements . . . . . 19 2.3.3 Mid-altitude temperate grasslands with subtropical grassland elements . 20 2.3.4 Low-altitude temperate grasslands with tropical savanna elements . . . 21 2.3.5 Indigenous, low-pressure herbivory regimes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22 2.4 Novel disturbance regimes: intensifying human settlement, from hunter-gatherers to farmers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23 2.4.1 Hunter-gatherers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23 2.4.2 Farmers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24 2.4.3 Establishment of the Cathedral Peak research catchments . . . . . . . . 26 2.4.4 Protected areas in the Drakensberg . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27 2.4.5 Early colonial impressions of fire . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27 2.5 Unpacking environmental heterogeneity, fire, and herbivory . . . . . . . . . . . 28 2.5.1 Fire and the grass sward . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29 2.5.2 Fire behaviour . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30 2.5.3 Herbivory and the grass sward . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30 2.5.4 Forbs, and other plant life forms, in the grass sward . . . . . . . . . . . 31 2.6 Unpacking the influence of socio-ecological systems on grassland-plant diversity 33 2.6.1 Grassland use and land tenure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34 2.6.2 Grassland transformation and land tenure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36 2.7 Climate change, atmospheric carbon dioxide enrichment, and grassland-plant diversity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39 v Drakensberg plant diversity in the face of global change 2.7.1 Changes in temperature and precipitation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40 2.7.2 Atmospheric carbon dioxide enrichment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41 2.8 Synthesis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42 References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43 3 Socio-ecological legacy effects on grassland transformation in the biodiversity rich Drakensberg mountains 58 Abstract . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 58 3.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 59 3.2 Methods . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 62 3.2.1 Study area . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 62 3.2.2 Land cover classification . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 65 3.2.3 Data analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 67 3.3 Results . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 68 3.3.1 Land cover transitions and stationarity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 69 3.3.2 Socio-ecological influences on grassland transformation . . . . . . . . 72 3.4 Discussion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 74 3.5 Conclusions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 78 References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 79 4 Functional perhaps, but depauperate—the fate of Drakensberg grassland plant di- versity under novel socio-ecological disturbance regimes 86 Abstract . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 86 4.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 87 4.2 Methods . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 90 4.2.1 Study area . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 90 4.2.2 Data analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 95 4.2.3 Response of plant species and functional diversity to S-EDRs . . . . . 96 4.3 Results . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 97 4.3.1 The marginal influence of S-EDRs on plant diversity . . . . . . . . . . 97 4.3.2 Response of plant composition to S-EDRs over time . . . . . . . . . . 97 4.3.3 Response of plant species and functional diversity to S-EDRs . . . . . 101 4.4 Discussion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 105 4.4.1 Emulating natural disturbance regimes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 105 4.4.2 Novel disturbance regimes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 106 4.5 Conclusions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 110 References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 110 5 Resistance of Drakensberg grasslands to compositional change depends on the in- fluence of fire-return interval and grassland structure on richness and spatial turnover117 Abstract . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 117 5.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 118 5.2 Methods . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 120 vi Drakensberg plant diversity in the face of global change 5.2.1 Study site . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 120 5.2.2 Vegetation sampling . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 120 5.2.3 Quantification of diversity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 121 5.2.4 Field sampling . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 122 5.2.5 Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 123 5.3 Results . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 125 5.3.1 Fire-return interval; environmental variable correlation and structure . . 125 5.3.2 Environmental plus fire-return interval influences on grassland structure and diversity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 126 5.3.3 Composition change over time . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 130 5.3.4 Compositional—environmental gradient relations over time . . . . . . 130 5.3.5 Species responses to the fire-return interval . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 131 5.3.6 Directional change in species abundance . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 132 5.3.7 Compositional stability in relation to fire regime . . . . . . . . . . . . 132 5.4 Discussion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 132 5.4.1 Compositional change and the fire-return interval . . . . . . . . . . . . 132 5.4.2 Diversity and the fire-return interval . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 134 5.5 Conclusions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 135 References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 136 6 Multidecadal effects of fire in a grassland biodiversity hotspot: Does pyrodiversity enhance plant diversity? 140 Abstract . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 140 6.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 141 6.2 Methods . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 145 6.2.1 Study area . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 145 6.2.2 Experimental design . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 146 6.2.3 Field sampling . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 146 6.2.4 Data analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 147 6.3 Results . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 150 6.3.1 Composition and structure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 150 6.3.2 Plant species diversity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 150 6.3.3 Partitioning beta diversity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 151 6.3.4 Plant groups . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 152 6.4 Discussion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 157 6.4.1 Contribution of pyrodiversity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 157 6.4.2 Fire return-interval and species diversity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 158 6.4.3 Burn season and species diversity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 162 6.4.4 Conclusions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 162 References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 163 vii Drakensberg plant diversity in the face of global change 7 General discussion 170 7.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 170 7.2 Principal limitations of the study design . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 173 7.3 Socio-ecological disturbance regimes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 175 7.3.1 Land tenure as a component of S-EDRs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 176 7.3.2 Fire and herbivore disturbance in Drakensberg grassland . . . . . . . . 178 7.4 Climate change and future threats . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 184 7.4.1 Woody plant encroachment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 186 7.4.2 Other future threats . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 186 7.5 Guidance for conservation practice . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 187 7.6 Conclusions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 189 References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 190 A Study area: abiotic template 200 A.1 Elevation, geology, slope, and soil moisture . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 200 B Land cover classification and analyses 203 B.1 Orthophoto production . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 203 B.2 Land cover classification . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 204 B.3 Wetland delineation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 213 C Digital Terrain Modelling 216 C.1 Model preparation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 216 D Hierarchical Generalized Additive Models 220 D.1 More on hGAM model structure setup and selection . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 220 D.2 More on hGAM model results . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 221 E Mdedelelo-Cathkin vegetation survey supplementary information 224 E.1 Correlation structure of soil properties and terrain variables . . . . . . . . . . . 224 E.2 Plant Family contributions to functional groups . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 226 F Brotherton burning trial and plant diversity supplementary material 229 F.1 Brotherton plant diversity: alpha and beta diversity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 229 F.2 Brotherton burning trial layout . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 230 viii List of Figures 2.1 Regional map of the Mdedelelo-Cathkin landscape . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13 2.2 3D visualisation of the Mdedelelo-Cathkin landscape . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14 2.3 Geological formations of the Mdedelelo-Cathkin landscape . . . . . . . . . . . 15 3.1 Land tenure systems in the Mdedelelo-Cathkin landscape . . . . . . . . . . . . 63 3.2 Land cover composition across tenure systems in 1945 and 2016 . . . . . . . . 70 3.3 Cross-tabulation pie matrix: summary of land cover transitions and stationarity from 1945 to 2016 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 71 3.4 hGAM smooths showing the influence of key predictors on the vulnerability of primary grassland to transformation on communal and private tenure systems, in 1945 and 2016 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 73 3.5 hGAM predictions of the likelihood of transformation on communal and private systems, across a 2D topographic profile, in 1945 and 2016 . . . . . . . . . . . 74 3.6 3D visualizations of hGAM predictions: the likelihood of primary grassland transformation across communal and private systems, in 1945 and 2016 . . . . 75 4.1 Land tenure systems in the Mdedelelo-Cathkin landscape . . . . . . . . . . . . 91 4.2 Venn diagram: partitioning variance in beta diversity across S-EDR components 98 4.3 The magnitude of changes in plant composition across S-EDRs . . . . . . . . . 99 4.4 Ordination depicting changes in plant composition across S-EDRs, environmen- tal variables, and plant-functional groups, from 1980 to 2016 . . . . . . . . . . 100 4.5 The response of plant species richness and community organisation (Shannon’s diversity and Simpson’s dominance) to S-EDRs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 102 4.6 The response of plant-functional group richness and diversity to S-EDRs . . . . 103 4.7 The response of plant-functional group richness to S-EDRs . . . . . . . . . . . 104 5.1 Vegetation monitoring plots in the Cathedral Peak research catchments . . . . . 121 5.2 PCA showing the correlation structure of environmental variables in the Cathe- dral Peak research catchments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 126 5.3 Grassland structure, fire-return interval and species richness relations . . . . . . 127 5.4 The response of grass diversity to the fire-return interval and soil texture . . . . 127 5.5 NMDS ordination illustrating the influence of environmental variables and fire- return interval on grassland-plant composition . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 130 5.6 The influence of fire-return interval on the abundance, or likelihood of occur- rence, on grass and forb species . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 131 ix Drakensberg plant diversity in the face of global change 5.7 Predictors of compositional stability between 1986 and 2014 . . . . . . . . . . 133 6.1 NMDS ordination showing variation in composition associated with fire-return interval treatments and grassland structure (basal cover) . . . . . . . . . . . . . 151 6.2 Forb and graminoid species accumulation curves, for different fire-return inter- vals and burn season . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 152 6.3 The response of alpha diversity to fire-return interval and burn season treatments 153 6.4 The response of plant-functional groups to fire-return interval treatments . . . . 154 6.5 The response of plant-functional groups to burn season treatments . . . . . . . 155 6.6 The response of graminoid and forb species richness and turnover to pyrodiversity156 A.1 Study area: abiotic template and land tenure systems . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 200 A.2 Study area: the distribution of geological formations by elevation . . . . . . . . 201 A.3 Study area: the correlation structure of abiotic environment variables and tenure systems . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 201 B.1 Land cover classification no data areas within the Mdedelelo-Cathkin . . . . . 214 C.1 3D visualisations depicting the processing of the DSM to DTM models . . . . 218 D.1 hGAM 2D topographic cross-section (without settlement density) showing asso- ciated predictions of the likelihood of primary grassland transformation, across communal and private tenure systems, in 1945 and 2016 . . . . . . . . . . . . 222 E.1 Correlation structure of soil textural and chemical properties, and terrain vari- ables, as represented by PCA biplots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 225 F.1 Layout of plot treatments at the Brotherton burning trial . . . . . . . . . . . . . 230 x List of Tables 2.1 Vegetation type summarised by altitude . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12 2.2 Altitudinal variation in temperature regimes over the Mdedelelo-Cathkin landscape 17 3.1 Land cover categories used to evaluate land cover land use change. Non-natural or human land covers that could support grassland were considered to be trans- formed in the earliest time period assessed (1944/1945). Indigenous closed woody, erosion, ‘wetland’, and natural water were natural land covers that were considered to not support grassland in 1944/1945; thereafter, any departure from Primary grassland constituted grassland transformation . . . . . . . . . . . . . 66 4.1 Characterisation of S-EDRs by herbivory pressure and fire-return intervals, in 1980 and 2016 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 95 5.1 Characterisation of fire-return intervals in 1980, 1986, and 2014 . . . . . . . . 123 5.2 The influence of fire-return interval, environmental variables, and spatial hetero- geneity on grass and forb turnover, from 1980 to 2014 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 129 5.3 Magnitude and significance of directional changes in grass species abundance . 132 6.1 Significance of predictors for variance in forb and graminoid turnover . . . . . 153 B.1 Air photo set details . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 203 B.2 Details of land cover categories used for classification . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 205 D.1 AIC and adjusted R-squared values used to inform Hierarchical Generalized Additive Model selection . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 221 E.1 Summary of plant Family composition per functional type . . . . . . . . . . . 227 F.1 Summary of alpha and beta diversity patterns across fire treatments . . . . . . . 229 xi Drakensberg plant diversity in the face of global change List of abbreviations AIC Akaike information criterion BP (Number of years) Before Present CI Frequentest Confidence Interval or Bayesian Credible Interval depending on the mode of statistical analysis D Simpson’s Dominance dbRDA distance based redundancy analysis DSM Digital Surface Model DT Distance-to-tuft (component of grassland structure) DTM Digital Terrain Model GSD Ground Sampling Distance H Shannon’s diversity hGAM Hierarchical Generalized Additive Model IDH Intermediate Disturbance Hypothesis LULCC Land Use Land Cover Change ka A thousand years ago m a.s.l. Meters above sea level (altitude) Ma A million years ago MEM Moran’s Eigenvector Maps PCA Principal Components Analysis PISR (Topographically modified) Potential Incoming Solar Radiation RI Fire-return Interval S Species richness S-EDR Socio-ecological disturbance regime SWI Soil Wetness Index VIF Variance Inflation Factor xii Chapter 1 Introduction The rich-plant diversity of ancient grasslands is highly threatened under global change (Hoekstra et al. 2005, Bond and Parr 2010, Veldman et al. 2015), that is, the increasing pressure of humans on the earth’s resources and its natural ecosystems. Covering a little over a third of the earth’s surface (Suttie et al. 2005), grasslands have been well-recognized for production of rangeland animals, water yield, nutrient cycling, and climate regulation (Boval and Dixon 2012, Bengtsson et al. 2019). However, their valuable contribution to plant diversity has only been recognized by mainstream science within the last two to three decades (Bond 2019)—and perhaps, too late (Hoekstra et al. 2005, Bond and Parr 2010, Carbutt et al. 2017). Climate change is a looming threat to grassland biodiversity (Polley et al. 2017, Pörtner et al. 2021), but habitat loss has been the largest driver of terrestrial biodiversity loss, driving the earth’s sixth mass extinction (Ceballos et al. 2015, Sage 2020, Pörtner et al. 2021). Grassland, being the primary biome into which humans have expanded their agricultural activities, is particularly vulnerable to habitat destruction (White et al. 2001, Hoekstra et al. 2005, Pörtner et al. 2021). Once destroyed by human land uses (e.g., tillage agriculture or plantations) grassland-plant diversity may require over a millennium to recover (Nerlekar and Veldman 2020). The protection of habitat has to be prioritized in order to maintain the earth’s biodiversity under the threat of climate change. In order for the distribution of species to adapt in response to climate change large, intact and connected tracts of natural habitat needs to be secured (Jewitt et al. 2017, Dinerstein et al. 2019). Moreover, conserving natural habitat is critical for maintaining ecosystem services, and mitigating the influence of climate change (Dinerstein et al. 2019). The drive to expand protected areas has been critical in an effort to maintain biodiversity in the face of global change, but the extent of protected areas remains insufficient (Sayre et al. 2020, UNEP-WCMC and IUCN 2021). Temperate grasslands, for example, form the most extensive grassland biome, but <5% of these are protected (IUCN WCPA 2021) and at least 46% (9 million hectares) have been irreversibly transformed (Hoekstra et al. 2005). This level of protection has fulfils less half the global target for 2020 (IUCN WCPA 2021). The insufficient extent of protected areas obligates conservation scientists to explore alternative land uses for main-streaming conservation efforts. Biodiversity main-streaming is designed to encourage sustainable use of natural resources and associated biodiversity outside protected 1 Drakensberg plant diversity in the face of global change areas, through policy and practice (Nagendra et al. 2004, Brooks et al. 2006, O’Connor et al. 2010). Identifying land uses outside protected areas that are suitable for maintaining grassland-plant diversity is a challenge. Understanding land transformation, that is, the alteration of land use and land use intensification, that leads to a change in land cover, does however, provide insight. Patterns in land transformation, revealed by land use land cover change analyses (LULCC), are crucial for determining the drivers of land transformation over time, and consequent vulnerability of habitat (DiGiano et al. 2013, Jewitt et al. 2015, Kleemann et al. 2017). The vulnerability of different grassland habitats to land transformation may contrast markedly under different land management strategies. Ostensibly, fertile-lowland plains are more vulnerable to being transformed to a cultivated state than steeper slopes that are unsuitable for tillage agriculture (Silveira et al. 2019). However, complex factors tied to the manner of interaction between people groups, their social, political, and cultural dynamics, and the environment, that is, socio-ecological dynamics (Francis and Bekera 2014), influence patterns of transformation across the abiotic environment of a landscape (O’Connor 2005, O’Connor and Kuyler 2009, DiGiano et al. 2013). In remaining untransformed grassland outside protected areas, uncertainty around the fate of grassland biodiversity is exacerbated by the influence of different socio-ecological systems, and their associated land use and land management strategies (O’Connor 2005). Across socio-ecological systems, humans have largely modified the disturbance regimes to which grassland-plant diversity is adapted. This plant diversity evolved under disturbance regimes characterised by lightning and aboriginal ignited fires, herbivory, and natural climate variability (Pausas and Keeley 2009, Fuhlendorf et al. 2017, Polley et al. 2017, He and Lamont 2018). Even within protected areas the effectiveness of management for securing biodiversity can be highly uncertain (Pörtner et al. 2021). Social and cultural biases, conflicting economic incentives (Aguilar-Tomasini et al. 2020, Maxwell et al. 2020, Rydén et al. 2020), research gaps, a lack of monitoring to guide conservation management (Pausas et al. 2009, Gordijn et al. 2018), and poor funding or weak policy can frustrate the success of protected areas (Maxwell et al. 2020, Pörtner et al. 2021). Scientists urgently need to reduce uncertainty around the fate of grassland-plant diversity to guide conservation efforts, within and outside protected areas. Novel approaches are required to address the lack of research on grassland-plant diversity (Uys et al. 2004, O’Connor et al. 2010, Bond 2019). Grassland science has established a fair understanding of a few important rangeland grasses valued for animal production, soil conservation and water production using controlled trials that were undertaken on sites with limited environmental heterogeneity (Fynn et al. 2005, O’Connor et al. 2010, Ward et al. 2020). However, the full complement of grassland diversity including rare and uncommon species has largely been ignored (Uys et al. 2004, Bond and Parr 2010, O’Connor et al. 2010, Bond 2019). Specifically, the forb component of grasslands that contributes 70–80% of grassland-plant diversity (Uys et al. 2004, Gordijn et al. 2018) requires investigation (O’Connor et al. 2010, Bond 2019). Moreover, application of the insight derived from controlled microcosm- and mesocosm-type trials is confounded by ‘real world’ heterogeneity in the abiotic environment and disturbances; for example, variation Chapter 1 2 Drakensberg plant diversity in the face of global change in fire behaviour or anthropogenic harvesting of plant species across a landscape is not captured on environmentally uniform controlled trials (O’Connor 2005, Fuhlendorf et al. 2006, Fuhlendorf et al. 2017, Polley et al. 2017). In order to provide a meaningful contribution to the conservation of grassland-plant diversity, understanding has to account for ‘real world’ disturbances and environmental heterogeneity which propagate uncertainty across a landscape. Mountain regions contribute over four-fifths of the earth’s terrestrial biodiversity (Rahbek et al. 2019), but this biodiversity is particularly vulnerable under global change. Due to their relatively higher rainfall than surrounding areas, mountain regions have become important centres of human settlement and associated agricultural activities. Mountains provide half of the world’s population with water (Viviroli et al. 2003). The grasslands of the Drakensberg mountain range are the last, most-extensive primary grasslands in southern Africa (Carbutt et al. 2011). Conserving a heterogeneous array of remaining Drakensberg grasslands is critical. These grasslands are known as the ‘hub’ of southern African temperate grassland diversity (Mucina et al. 2006) containing a little over 2500 plant species with a high level of plant endemism (9%) (Carbutt 2019). This rich-plant diversity is spread across the complex montane terrain of the region, and the associated turnover rates, that is, changes in unique species assemblages over space, is high. Therefore, for effective conservation, a landscape approach is necessary to ascertain which areas are vulnerable to the pressures associated with increasing human activities. This biodiversity-rich montane grassland system requires urgent attention from conservation scientists. Drakensberg grasslands have remained largely untransformed for millennia, but over the last ca. 200 years, settlement has increased in the region (Wright and Mazel 2007), and only a small portion of these grasslands are protected (Carbutt et al. 2011). Farmers have transformed large tracts of these grasslands to cultivated pasture for livestock production, tillage agriculture, and plantation forestry (O’Connor and Kuyler 2009). The estimated extent of irreversibly transformed grasslands of 22.30% (Carbutt et al. 2011) is likely an underestimate, due to the known constraints with detecting secondary grassland using aerial imagery (Jewitt et al. 2015). Moreover, the 5.87% level of Drakensberg grassland protection (Carbutt et al. 2011) is meagre considering the multiple sub-centres of endemism in the region (Mucina et al. 2006, Carbutt 2019). Lowland Drakensberg grasslands that have experienced the greatest levels of transformation are largely unprotected (O’Connor and Kuyler 2009, Carbutt et al. 2011), and differences between socio-ecological systems could exacerbate uncertainty around their vulnerability to transformation (Kleemann et al. 2017). Similar to elsewhere in South Africa (Meadows and Hoffman 2002) and around the world (Reid et al. 2000, DiGiano et al. 2013, Fagin et al. 2016, Kleemann et al. 2017, Katusiime and Schütt 2020), unprotected Drakensberg grasslands are composed of two common land tenure systems, specifically, private and communal systems (O’Connor 2005). Land tenure reflects the complexity of socio-ecological systems, and has become important for understanding the influence of humans on land transformation and ecosystems (O’Connor 2005, Fagin et al. 2016, Robinson et al. 2018, Katusiime and Schütt 2020). Chapter 1 3 Drakensberg plant diversity in the face of global change Across communal and private land tenure systems, the certainty of access to land can influence land use and land management practices (O’Connor 2005, Peden 2005, Kleemann et al. 2017). Uncertain access to communal land has contrasted with secure ownership of private land. On private systems, more certain access to land and ownership of resources stimulates investment (Peden 2005). This investment advances land use intensification and land transformation, but where natural grasslands are retained for animal production sustainable management practices have been promoted (O’Connor 2005, Kleemann et al. 2017). On communal areas access to land has been uncertain due to social upheavals that have been accompanied by the erosion of traditional governance systems (Meadows and Hoffman 2002, Peden 2005). Grassland management practices associated with this uncertainty, such as heavy-continuous grazing, can deplete the more nutritious and productive tufted grasses, and rare plant species, and also expose the soil surface to erosive forces (Meadows and Hoffman 2002, Peden 2005, Fagin et al. 2016). In the Drakensberg, the long-term influence of disturbance regimes and specific management practices associated with communal, private and protected systems (e.g., mowing [Fynn et al. 2005, Ward et al. 2020] or selected harvesting of plants [O’Connor 2004]) on grassland-plant diversity is largely unexplored (O’Connor 2004, O’Connor et al. 2010). Although the recovery of grassland-plant diversity is known to be poor (Nerlekar and Veldman 2020) the potential value of secondary grassland in the Drakensberg is also largely unexplored and requires investigation (O’Connor 2005). Both fire and grazing are drivers of foremost importance in grassland (O’Connor et al. 2010, Fuhlendorf et al. 2017, Lunt et al. 2012), but within protected areas of the Drakensberg fire is the primary management tool (Morris et al. 2020). Herbivory pressure has been naturally limited in Drakensberg grasslands. Owing to the poor nutrient status of the soils, herbage quality is low, and the capacity of these grasslands to support herbivores year-round is limited. In the absence of heavy-continuous grazing, fire is the primary consumer of herbaceous biomass (Scotcher and Clarke 1981, Morris et al. 2020). Plant diversity in protected areas of the Drakensberg is threatened by a poor understanding of the influence of fire (Uys et al. 2004, O’Connor 2005, Gordijn and O’Connor 2021). The long-term influence of fire regimes, described by their two main components, fire-return interval and burn season (He et al. 2019), on plant diversity is largely unknown in Drakensberg grasslands (O’Connor et al. 2010, Gordijn and O’Connor 2021). Similar to other rangelands, most studies have focused on grasses, largely ignoring the full complement of plant diversity (Uys et al. 2004, Gordijn et al. 2018). 1.1 Aims and objectives In order to guide the conservation of the Drakensberg grassland-plant diversity in the face of global change, the aim of this thesis was to reduce uncertainty around the influence of different socio-ecological systems on grassland-plant diversity, in the face of global change. The ‘Mdedelelo-Cathkin’ landscape in the northern Drakensberg section in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa, with a good representation of communal, private, and protected land tenure systems, Chapter 1 4 Drakensberg plant diversity in the face of global change which reflect contrasting socio-ecological systems, provided an opportunity to realise this aim. Close attention to the influence of fire regimes in protected areas was necessary. Increasing human pressure has had a dramatic influence on fire regimes (Archibald et al. 2012), and uncertainty around the influence of fire regime components, such as fire-return interval and burn season, is possibly the largest threat to grassland-plant diversity. Therefore, in protected areas where fire is the primary driver used to manage vegetation, the influence of different fire regimes requires urgent attention (O’Connor et al. 2010). The species-rich and high-turnover nature of Drakensberg grasslands (Carbutt 2019), combined with the different influences of socio-ecological systems, necessitated an approach that considered multiscale processes. Therefore, objectives were structured to provide insight into landscape-level drivers, down to the influence of drivers at the smaller habitat-level spatial scales, where plant diversity was quantified and the responses of species were evaluated. The response to species to the influence of fire, herbivory and other drivers associated with the contrasting socio-ecological systems, provided the opportunity to improve the understanding of plant species responses, and functional groups thereof, to disturbance regimes. The first objective was achieved at the landscape level using remote sensing, and complementary objectives were realised through field-based vegetation sampling. The specific objectives were: i) At the landscape-level scale, using remote sensing to undertake an LULCC analysis, assess the influence of different socio-ecological systems on the spatial extent and drivers of grassland transformation, and the vulnerability of different grassland habitats to transformation. ii) Evaluate the influence of socio-ecological systems and their associated management practices on grassland-plant diversity, in primary and secondary grassland, across the landscape. iii) Assess the influence of fire regimes, defined by short to longer fire-return intervals, on plant diversity, across the heterogeneous montane environment of protected Drakensberg grasslands. iv) Evaluate the treatment effects of fire regimes, defined by different fire-return interval and burn seasons, on grassland-plant diversity, in protected Drakensberg grasslands. Uncommon multidecadal data, extending back 30–70 years, were used to gain perspective on the rate and extent of grassland habitat and plant diversity loss, under the influence of contrasting socio-ecological systems. The complement of the rare long-term data, plus thorough assessment of vegetation across the heterogeneous-montane landscape, provided this opportunity to significantly reduce uncertainty around the fate of grassland-plant diversity in the face of global change. For the assessment of fire regimes, the combination of the landscape-scale assessment and controlled mesocosm trial provided a rare opportunity to make a strong statement regarding the influence of fire in protected Drakensberg grasslands. In a landscape-scale assessment, the influence of drivers may be obscured by environmental variation, the uncertainty around which may be reduced through controlled experimentation. Chapter 1 5 Drakensberg plant diversity in the face of global change 1.2 Thesis structure In this chapter, the problem that Drakensberg grassland-plant diversity faces under global change has been highlighted, and this thesis’ contribution to addressing this problem was introduced. The next chapter, a literature review, unpacks the context necessary for understanding the nature of this problem in Drakensberg grasslands (Chapter 2). The following four chapters address the thesis’ objectives i–iv, and are prepared or presented as manuscripts for publication (Chapters 3–6). Chapters 5 and 6, which addressed the influence of fire regimes, have been published (Chapter 5 DOI: 10.1016/j.ppees.2018.07.005; Chapter 6 DOI: 10.1002/eap.2391). A general discussion and conclusion is presented in Chapter 7. In order to limit page numbers in Chapters 3–6 as required for publication, supporting material is presented in Appendices A–F. References Aguilar-Tomasini, M. A., T. Escalante, and M. 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Murray, and M. Rohweder (2001). Grassland ecosystems: pilot analysis of global ecosystems. World Resources Institute, Washington DC, US. Wright, J. B. and A. D. Mazel (2007). Tracks in a mountain range: exploring the history of the uKhahlamba-Drakensberg. Witwatersrand University Press. Johannesburg, ZA. Chapter 1 10 Chapter 2 The ‘eco-story’ of a mountain range: acquiring perspective on Drakensberg plant diversity and global change 2.1 Introduction Developing local context is key to understanding the influence of global change on ecosystems and their biodiversity (Fuhlendorf et al. 2017, Polley et al. 2017, Fordham et al. 2020). The response of an ecosystem’s biodiversity to global change depends on complex interactions between their abiotic template (i.e., physical environment) and the drivers which shaped their evolution (Bond 2019, He et al. 2019). This review introduces the abiotic template, upon which Drakensberg plant diversity evolved, and the palaeo drivers that shaped this evolution. The influence of past climate fluctuations, and insight into the nature of other historic drivers, provides a framework for predicting the response of plant diversity to global change (Fordham et al. 2020). In developing this context, the major vegetation communities of the Drakensberg are described. Then, the early and later influence of humans, and their interactions with the Drakensberg biodiversity, is discussed. Once the palaeo and more recent context has been established, novel, human-modified disturbance regimes are unpacked. These disturbance regimes, of which major components include fire and herbivory, regulate grassland ecosystems and their biodiversity. The influence of socio-ecological systems, which are represented by the communal, private and protected land tenure systems in the study area, on these disturbance regimes and the consequences for plant diversity are considered. This level of understanding is key to predicting the response of plant diversity to human-modified disturbance regimes. Importantly, for a landscape-level perspective, the influence of socio-ecological systems on grassland transformation, which includes land use intensification, and is the largest driver of biodiversity loss on the earth’s terrestrial surface (Sage 2020), is discussed. This local context forms the knowledge-base for realising the aim of this thesis, to reduce uncertainty around the influence of humans on the Drakensberg’s plant diversity. By reducing uncertainty around the influence of humans, this thesis will contribute towards the 11 Drakensberg plant diversity in the face of global change understanding or detection of the looming threat of climate change, on grassland-plant diversity. 2.2 Study area: abiotic template The study area is situated in the central to northern section of the KwaZulu-Natal Drakensberg mountains, and is delineated by the catchment areas of four tributaries of a major river in the area, the Thukela River (28°75’ S, 29°10’ E; 29°25’ S, 29°70’ E; Fig. 2.1). Specifically, the catchment areas of the uMlambonja, Linquespruit, Sterkspruit, and Little Thukela Rivers. This study area is termed the ‘Mdedelelo-Cathkin’ area in this thesis. ‘Mdedelelo’ is the isiZulu (southern Bantu language) name for the prominent peak which protrudes from the main Drakensberg escarpment in the south-west of the area (Fig. 2.1). ‘Mdedelelo’ can be interpreted as, ‘make room for him’, and is a reference to the prominence of this peak which is visible throughout most of the study area. The English name for the peak, ‘Cathkin peak’, was imported due to the familiarity of a European settler with the Cathkin Braes hill in Glasgow, Scotland (Pearse 2006). The Drakensberg has warm, wet summers and cool, dry winters, characteristic of southern African temperate grasslands (Mucina et al. 2006). However, the climate of the area is variable but broadly corresponds to the montane altitude gradient and associated topographic features. The Drakensberg is an erosion escarpment consisting of horizontal igneous, aeolian and sedimentary strata which have been deeply incised by numerous rivers (King 1944). These rivers, fed by the high rainfall in the region, contribute significantly to southern Africa’s water supply (Schulze 1979). The diverse abiotic template associated with montane terrain, and convergence of different vegetation lineages in these mountains, have resulted in a speciose flora with a high proportion of endemic species (Carbutt and Edwards 2006). Nine vegetation types are recognized for the study area which are broadly delimited by altitude (Table 2.1). Table 2.1: Vegetation types summarised by altitude, from low to high elevation, in the Mdedelelo-Cathkin area (Mucina et al. 2006) Broad Units Vegetation type Median Min Max Sub-escarpment Grassland KwaZulu-Natal Highland Thornveld 1133 1060 1389 Sub-escarpment Grassland Northern KwaZulu-Natal Moist Grassland 1199 993 1602 Sub-escarpment Grassland Drakensberg Foothill Moist Grassland 1510 1200 1900 Forest Northern Afrotemperate Forest 1626 1141 2189 Drakensberg Grassland Northern Drakensberg Highland Grassland 1817 1346 2180 Drakensberg Grassland Drakensberg-Amathole Afromontane Fynbos 1838 1591 2144 Drakensberg Grassland uKhahlamba Basalt Grassland 2091 1587 3349 Drakensberg Grassland Lesotho Highland Basalt Grassland 2813 1591 2144 Drakensberg Grassland Drakensberg Afroalpine Heathland 3183 2714 3450 2.2.1 Geology, soils, and topography The geomorphology and related pedogenesis of the Drakensberg is relatively simple. The older or underlying geology consists of largely undisturbed horizontal sedimentary layers upon Chapter 2 12 Drakensberg plant diversity in the face of global change ma dk co ts do oW Spioenkop dam Lindeq ues pr ui t ti ur pse u qedniL L i tt le Th uk el a Litt le T h u ke la Little Thukela uMl am bo nja eM hlaw zini S te rk sp ru it S te rk sp ru it N je su th i Thukela Mdedelelo-Cathkin Peak Winterton Bergville Emmaus CPRC Kw aZu lu-Nata l Lesotho 29°6′E 29°6′E 29°12′E 29°12′E 29°18′E 29°18′E 29°24′E 29°24′E 29°30′E 29°30′E 29°36′E 29°36′E 29°42′E 29°42′E 2 9 °1 2 ′S 2 9 °1 2′S 2 9 °6 ′S 2 9 °6′S 2 9 °0 ′S 2 9 °0′S 2 8 °5 4 ′S 2 8 °5 4′S 2 8 °4 8 ′S 2 8 °4 8′S 2 8 °4 2 ′S 2 8 °4 2′S 0 5 10 15 20 km Towns M-C Peak CPRC International boundary Dam River AOI Protected area Legend South Africa Altitude (m .a.s.l.) 1000 1400 1800 2200 2600 3200 Figure 2.1: Layout of the core study area, that is, the area of interest (AOI) delineated by the catchment areas of four Thukela River tributaries. Major dams include Woodstock and Spi- oenkop in the north-west and central north respectively. Protected areas are concentrated in the south-west, extending from escarpment to Drakensberg foothills. The upper Little Thukela, Lin- quespruit and uMlambonja areas have been under communal tenure. Privately owned lands are concentrated around Winterton and extend up the Sterkspruit valley. Winterton and Bergville are the two major urban centres in the area. CPRC = Cathedral Peak research catchments. which basaltic lavas erupted. High rainfall in the region plus associated frequent lightning events have eroded these layers at varying rates, and shaped the formation of the Drakensberg erosion escarpment (King 1944, Knight and Grab 2014) (Fig. 2.2). The geological formations and associated soils derived from these are described from the uppermost (youngest) stratum, to the lowest (oldest) stratum, below. Chapter 2 13 Drakensberg plant diversity in the face of global change Figure 2.2: 3D visualisation of the Mdedelelo-Cathkin landscape as depicted from a north-east (near Winterton) to south-east (the main escarpment) perspective. Rivers and dams are labelled in blue; place names in black. From left-to-right (south-west to the north-east, respectively): the Njesuthi and lower Little Thukela catchment areas are largely under communal land tenure; the next catchment to the right is the Sterkspruit which is largely under private tenure; the upper reaches of the Linquespruit and uMlambonja river catchments are under communal tenure, and lower reaches, towards Winterton and Woodstock dam, private tenure. Patches of commercial cultivated lands are concentrated near Winterton. The dark green areas are afforested grassland, largely dominated by Eucalyptus species (e.g., left of the Linquespruit label). Protected areas, at higher altitudes (e.g., the Cathedral Peak Research Catchments) are a lighter green colour (Landsat-8 image taken in April 2019 courtesy of the U.S. Geological Survey). The basalt of the uppermost stratum, the Drakensberg Group (182 Ma) (Fig. 2.3), ranges in thickness up to 2000 m, and constitutes the prominent cliffs (Geological Survey 1981). In the study area, cliff faces reach up to 250 m. Soils near the escarpment are mostly shallow (<50 cm) (Killick 1961), owing to greater weathering and soil erosion rates on the higher, steeper slopes of the erosion escarpment (Tyson et al. 1976). The dominant soils derived from this formation are humic and oxidic (Turner 2007). Beneath the Drakensberg Basalts are the fine-grained aeolian sandstones of the <200 m thick Clarens Formation (190–182 Ma), the uppermost layer of the Stormberg Group (Geological Survey 1981) (Fig. 2.3). Erosion of lower, less-resistant strata and the sandstone has resulted in the formation of prominent white to cream coloured cliffs and associated caves, which were used by early hunter-gatherers (Wright and Mazel 2007). The dominant soils derived from this sandstone are oxidic and have a poorer nutrient status than those derived from basalt. However, due to their greater sand content they are relatively more structured (Turner 2007). Underlying the Clarens sandstone is the 210–70 m thick Elliot Formation (210–190 Ma) which consists of multi-coloured mudstones and sandstones (Geological Survey 1981) (Fig. 2.3). The older underlying Molteno Formation (237–210 Ma) has alternating beds of sandstone with thin shale and mudstone layers, and is approximately 200 m thick (Geological Survey 1981). The dominant soils derived from the Elliot and Molteno formations are oxidic Chapter 2 14 Drakensberg plant diversity in the face of global change ma d k cot sd oo W Spioenkop dam Lindequ esp ruit tiurpseuqedniL L it tle Th uk ela Litt le Thukela Little Thukela uMl am bon ja eMhlawzini St er ks pr uit St er ks pr uit Nje sut hi Thukela Mdedelelo-Cathkin Peak Winterton Bergville Emmaus CPRC Kw aZ ulu -Na tal Lesotho 29°6′E 29°6′E 29°12′E 29°12′E 29°18′E 29°18′E 29°24′E 29°24′E 29°30′E 29°30′E 29°36′E 29°36′E 29°42′E 29°42′E29 °1 2′S 29°12′S 29 °6 ′S 29°6′S 29 °0 ′S 29°0′S 28 °5 4′S 28°54′S 28 °4 8′S 28°48′S 28 °4 2′S 28°42′S 0 5 10 15 20 km AOI Protected areas International border Towns CPRC Dam River M-C Peak Geological formations Drakensberg Clarens Elliot Molteno Tarkastad Normandien Masotcheni Volksrust Karoo dolerite Legend Figure 2.3: Geological formations of the study area. AOI = area of interest; CPRC = Cathedral Peak research catchments. (Turner 2007). The Tarkastad Formation (251–237 Ma) of the Upper Beaufort Group (Catuneanu et al. 2005) underlies the Molteno Formation, and consists of fine- to medium-grained sedimentary sandstones and mudstones (Geological Survey 1981) (Fig. 2.3). Underlying this is the Normandien Formation (265–251 Ma) of the Lower Beaufort Group (Catuneanu et al. 2005) which consists of dark-grey shale, siltstone, and fine- to course-grained sandstone (Geological Survey 1981). The soils derived from Normandien Formation are largely oxidic (Turner 2007). The Karoo Dolerite sills and dykes associated with the basalt flows of the Drakensberg Group are best represented in the Normandien Formation. These have formed the many conspicuous, weather-resistant rocky outcrops in the lower portion of the study area (Geological Survey 1981, Turner 2007). Erosion of these dolerite outcrops has produced fertile Chapter 2 15 Drakensberg plant diversity in the face of global change oxidic soils in these areas (Turner 2007). The basaltic soils of the upper reaches of the escarpment are similar in composition to the doleritic soils at lower elevations. Higher rainfall in the vicinity of the escarpment summit and associated leaching of soil nutrients has made the basaltic soils of higher elevations comparatively poorer in nutrients than lower doleritic soils (Turner 2007). The formation of duplex soils, associated with mudstones from the Tarkastad and Normandien formations, have resulted in localized erosion-gulley and donga formations (Turner 2007). The Masotcheni Formation is bounded by the younger Normandien and older Volksrust Formation of the Ecca Group (.265 Ma) (Catuneanu et al. 2005) (Fig. 2.3). The Masotcheni contains recent colluvial deposits, and conspicuous gulleys associated with duplex soils (Catuneanu et al. 2005, Turner 2007). From the water divide, marked by the prominent basalt cliffs of the main Drakensberg scarp, numerous streams and rivers flow westwards into Lesotho and eastward into the study area. The incision of valleys and gorges by the east-flowing river systems has resulted in the formation of numerous spurs and ridges extending from the main scarp. The basalt followed by the sandstone cliffs and ridges are the most precipitous. Moving away from the escarpment, steeper slopes change to gentle-undulating hills and plains associated with the Normandien Formation (Turner 2007) (Figs 2.1–2.3). 2.2.2 Climate Changes in climate over palaeo-time scales, in concert with the diverse relief of the Drakensberg mountain range, have driven the formation of species-rich grasslands in the Drakensberg. In order to understand the responses of plant diversity to contemporary global change dynamics, significant shifts in the palaeoclimate are noted in section 2.3. A contemporary snapshot of meteorological variation over the Drakensberg landscape, which is key to understanding the influence of the abiotic environment on plant diversity, is outlined below. For this snapshot, the detailed compilation of climate figures and modelling by Tyson et al. (1976) which spanned the study area was relied upon. Discontinuity in climate records in the area have prevented an updated version of this report (MacKellar et al. 2014, Toucher et al. 2016), but trends in climate are noted in section 2.7. Altitude has a prominent influence on the climate of the Drakensberg. Although geographically situated within the subtropical latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere, the climate is temperate, owing to cooling associated with the high altitude of the Drakensberg escarpment. Over an approximate 2000 m altitude gradient, mean daily minima and maxima range from 7 to 11 °C in mid-winter and mid-summer (Table 2.2) (Tyson et al. 1976). Secondary spatial patterns in micro- to macro-scale climate variation are largely associated with the heterogeneous relief of this montane environment (Tyson et al. 1976, Toucher et al. 2016). Temperature extremes in the Drakensberg range from hot-summer to frosty-winter conditions. The maximum temperature is largely limited to ±35 °C and for ≤20 days per year. Frost events are common occurring from April to October near the escarpment and May to August/September in the lower regions of the study area (Tyson et al. 1976). The actual number of frost events is difficult to predict due to the diverse relief and associated air Chapter 2 16 Drakensberg plant diversity in the face of global change Table 2.2: Temperature regimes over the altitude range of the Mdedelelo-Cathkin landscape. Low altitude areas are represented by Winterton and Bergville at 1135 and 1026 m a.s.l., respec- tively. High altitude areas by a site on the escarpment near Organ Pipes Pass, Cathedral Peak (Tyson et al. 1976) Mean daily minimum (°C) Mean daily maximum (°C) July January July January Low altitude (±1100 m a.s.l.) 4 15 15 29 High altitude (±3000 m a.s.l.) −6 8 8 18 movements. When cool air sinks into valleys and hollows in sub-zero mid-winter, conditions conducive to frost events may occur on average 25 nights a month in mid-winter. In May and August, these conditions occur on average 10 and 20 nights respectively (Tyson et al. 1976). Variation in mean annual precipitation in the study area broadly corresponds to the altitude gradient, ranging from ±600 mm near Winterton in the east to ±2000 mm at the summit in the west (Fig. 2.1) (Tyson et al. 1976). Seventy percent of the rainfall is brought by mid- to late-afternoon thunderstorms in summer (Tyson et al. 1976, Toucher et al. 2016). Cold frontal systems that move in from the west bring wet and cooler conditions to the Drakensberg from early Autumn to early Spring (Tyson et al. 1976, Toucher et al. 2016). Snow falls associated with these frontal systems may occur year-round but are concentrated in mid-winter. An average of 11.5 snowfalls have been recorded per year, concentrated on the summit of the Drakensberg escarpment (Grab et al. 2017). Under clear conditions, winds are dominated by the effects of the escarpment and valley relief. Katabatic winds drain cool air from higher slopes at night contributing to frosty conditions. During the day, warmer air moves upslope in anabatic winds (Tyson et al. 1976). These winds affect the sub-escarpment areas forty plus kilometres away in KwaZulu-Natal (Tyson et al. 1976). On a meso-scale level, land forms elevated above cool sinking winter air are important refugia for cold intolerant species (Samways 1990). Conditions highly conducive to fire ignition and spread are associated with large-scale, warm, katabatic winds, known in southern Africa, as ‘berg winds’ (Strydom and Savage 2018). These winds occur from April to September, when preceding the eastward movement of anticyclones, warm air drains from the central southern African plateau over the Drakensberg escarpment towards a coastal low. Adiabatic heating, associated with the coastward drainage of warm air, produces hot, dry, and strong north-westerly winds (Grab and Simpson 2000). ‘Berg winds’ are most frequent during early spring, when the number of anticyclones moving across southern Africa peaks (Grab and Simpson 2000). The exposure of bare soil to erosive weather events and consequent wind and runoff erosion is a management concern (Watson 1984). 2.3 Drakensberg plant diversity: origins, drivers, and disturbance regimes The grasslands of the Drakensberg contain phenomenal plant diversity. The study area (Fig. 2.1) falls within the Drakensberg Mountain Centre of plant endemism (1300 to 3500 m Chapter 2 17 Drakensberg plant diversity in the face of global change a.s.l.) which has a total of ±2500 species with a 9% endemism level (Carbutt 2019). The area ranks as the fourth-richest floral region of southern Africa. Additional centres of endemism in the foothills of the Drakensberg, that intersect with the study area, are under investigation (Mucina et al. 2006, Carbutt 2019). In order to effectively conserve this plant diversity, it is important to understand the drivers that have shaped patterns of plant diversity across the landscape. The nature of these drivers, considered as together as disturbance regimes (Pickett et al. 1989), are often debated, influenced by cultural perceptions, and are dependent on underlying management objectives—leaving an uncertain future for grassland-plant diversity (Bond and Parr 2010, Bond 2019). Palaeoecological research, which extends well before the recent influence of human settlement intensification in the region (ca. 3000–200 BP) (Finch et al. 2021), provides critical insight into the nature of these drivers, and shaping of the disturbance regimes that regulate Drakensberg grasslands. Climate, fire, and herbivory have been the primary drivers that shaped the evolution of grassland-plant diversity in the Drakensberg (Linder 2014). The shaping of the rich-plant diversity of the Drakensberg over aeons contrasts with the relatively short period of intensifying human-influence that has engendered novel disturbance regimes (see from section 2.4). The Drakensberg’s rich-plant diversity is partly attributable to the convergence of alpine, temperate and tropical biomes in the region (Mucina et al. 2006). The alpine region (2800–3500 m a.s.l.) is dominated by C3 temperate grasses and contains fynbos or heath elements (Mucina et al. 2006). The fynbos elements contribute significantly to the richness of these grasslands having affinities to the richest plant region in the world, the Cape Floral Kingdom (Carbutt and Edwards 2001). This alpine flora integrates into lower elevation floras, specifically, the extensive temperate grasslands in the study area, then lower subtropical savanna elements (Mucina et al. 2006, Linder 2014). 2.3.1 Climate and fire: palaeoecological drivers in grassland The major uplift of the central interior in the Middle Miocene (ca. 16.0 Ma) that was associated with aridification and global cooling since the Pliocene (ca. 5.3– 2.58 Ma) (Wichura et al. 2010, Scott 2002) facilitated the establishment of temperate grasslands in southern Africa (Bredenkamp et al. 2002). Seasonal drought, and disturbance by lightning-ignited fire and herbivory favoured the reduced growth forms (Bond 2019) that characterise the contemporary Poaceae of the Drakensberg. The development of the hemicrytophytic growth form of grasses and other herbs, with their bud banks held close or at ground level, were an important development for the spread of grasslands. By protecting their buds at the soil surface from a harsh climate and fire, they could propagate the herbaceous phytomass to fuel seasonal fires, thereby promoting their persistence (Bredenkamp et al. 2002, Strömberg 2011, Bond 2019). The development of the underground storage organs of geophytic life forms, with organs such as tubers, bulbs, corms, and woody rootstocks, were also important plant traits that engendered survival in grasslands. Geophytic forbs and shrubs constitute the bulk of contemporary grassland diversity (Uys et al. 2004, Parr et al. 2014). Grasslands established from the late Pliocene remained throughout subsequent cool and arid glacial, then warm and moister interglacial cycles of the Pleistocene (Scott 2002). Over the Chapter 2 18 Drakensberg plant diversity in the face of global change climatic instability of the Pleistocene and into the more stable and warmer Holocene interglacial (<10k BP), changes in temperature and rainfall regimes have corresponded closely to shifts in the altitudinal distribution of C3 and C4 grassland communities in southern Africa. Festucoid grasses, which have a C3 photosynthetic pathway, grow optimally when the growing season is cooler, typified in winter rainfall and some high altitude regions (Scott 2002, Parker et al. 2011). The C4 photosynthetic mechanism was a tropical adaptation in response to lowered atmospheric [CO2] and summer rainfall conditions under which these plants have optimal growth (Scott 2002, Scott and Lee-Thorp 2004). Palynology and isotope data from the Drakensberg suggest that in the Last Glacial Maximum (25k–16k BP) of the Pleistocene, regional temperatures were as much as 5–6 °C cooler. Under these conditions, higher altitude vegetation communities spread to lower altitudes, as much as 1000 m lower than current extents (Neumann et al. 2014). Vegetation shifts in the Holocene were comparatively minor compared with those associated with the glacial-interglacial cycles of the Pleistocene. The early Holocene was marked by rising temperatures and aridification (likely drier cold seasons, unfavourable for alpine vegetation) which saw a retreat of C3 grassland elements up the altitudinal gradient of the Drakensberg (Neumann et al. 2014, Norström et al. 2014). With increased seasonality, favourable for C4 grasses whose herbaceous phytomass cures seasonally, fire frequencies increased as suggested by increased charcoal deposits towards the middle Holocene. The extent of charcoal deposits also corresponds to sediment deposition, indicating some fire associated erosion events, along with transitions from fynbos to grassland vegetation communities (Norström et al. 2014). From the mid-Holocene (5000 BP), the largest observed shift in C3 and C4 grassland communities, was a 400 m lowering of alpine C3 into C4 grasslands in Lesotho. This expansion of C3 grasslands was associated with increasing cool and moist winters from ca. 2960 to 2100 BP (Parker et al. 2011). From ca. 2100 BP, a warmer summer-rainfall regime favoured the expansion of C4 grasslands. The return of a warmer summer-rainfall climate during this period of the Holocene (especially from ca. 1800 BP) has also been associated with distinct anthropogenic influences on vegetation communities in the Drakensberg (February 1994, Wright and Mazel 2007, Neumann et al. 2014, Lodder et al. 2017). Increased settlement of farmers in the Drakensberg region from ca. 550 BP corresponds with evidence of increased fire frequencies in the region (February 1994, Wright and Mazel 2007, Neumann et al. 2014). The increases in fire frequency have been suggested to have promoted a decline in fire-sensitive vegetation in the Drakensberg (e.g., Protea spp. [February 1994]). More recently, as indicated by palynology studies in protected grasslands at Cathedral Peak, increased [CO2] has been suggested to have resulted in an increase in C3 grassland elements (possibly from C3 grass genera such as Festuca) (Lodder et al. 2017). 2.3.2 High-altitude alpine grassland diversity: Cape fynbos elements Fynbos or heath is associated with oligotrophic environments, that is, environments with nutrient poor soils, limited soil water availability and general environmental stress (Carbutt and Edwards 2001). This vegetation, is considered the Cape component of Drakensberg flora, and typical fynbos genera include C3 Poaceae, Iridaceae, Ericaceae and Proteaceae (Carbutt and Chapter 2 19 Drakensberg plant diversity in the face of global change Edwards 2001). Phytogeographic studies have shown that Drakensberg fynbos elements have links to other such communities on high altitude environments throughout Africa (Carbutt and Edwards 2001, Linder 2014). Origins of the Cape clades have been dated to the Paleogene (66.0–23.0 Ma), while diversification thereof occurred in the Miocene (23.0–5.3 Ma) (Linder 2014). Linkages between African fynbos communities are likely to have occurred when environmental conditions were cooler and drier. Fynbos communities would have likely descended from their high altitude oligotrophic refugia and formed links centred along Africa’s escarpments (Carbutt and Edwards 2001, Clark et al. 2011). The high altitude alpine grasslands of the Drakensberg likely served as one such refugia (Carbutt and Edwards 2001). Divergence of Drakensberg flora from western clades has been influenced by the east to west rainfall gradient in southern Africa, which has been present from the Cenozoic (66.0 Ma to current). Termination of these linkages due to the shifts in climate would have facilitated further diversification (Linder 2014). The large scale spread of grasslands and associated increase in fire events is a key event in the history of plant diversity on the African continent (Bredenkamp et al. 2002). Increases in fire frequencies likely lead to the erosion of ancestral cool-temperate fynbos diversity over Africa. Areas protected from fire in cooler climate zones, such as the high altitude Cape fold mountains and Drakensberg escarpment, would have served as fire-protected areas for cool-temperate flora (Linder 2014). In field studies over the last half-century, the controlling effect of fire on fynbos and other woody plants has been observed in the Drakensberg. These vegetation communities are restricted to fire-protected rocky outcrops, spurs, and valleys (Granger and Schulze 1977, Carbutt and Edwards 2001). If fire is suppressed for approximately ten years, fynbos species and temperate-adapted trees (e.g., Erica evansii) may ingress into Drakensberg grasslands (Granger 1976). The adaptation of alpine, cool-temperate fynbos clades such as Asteraceae to warmer grasslands below the escarpment, is an example of the most recent radiation of plant diversity in Africa (Bentley et al. 2014, Linder 2014). This ecotone is interesting as this flora has adapted to the more frequent fires associated with a warmer climate (Manry and Knight 1986, Linder 2014). The nature of fire regime required to maintain this flora is, however, largely unexplored and debated (Gordijn et al. 2018). 2.3.3 Mid-altitude temperate grasslands with subtropical grassland elements The bulk of the herbaceous phytomass in Drakensberg grasslands is contributed by C4 grasses that originated from the fire assisted movement of temperate grasslands into lower, tropical latitudes, from the Middle to Late Miocene (16.0–5.3 Ma) (Linder 2014). Temperate grasslands flourished with the uplifting of the East African Plateau, and consequent cool and arid conditions (Meadows and Linder 1993, Wichura et al. 2010). Recurrent fire then promoted the spread of these grasslands into dry forests (subtropical thickets in the southern African context), shaping novel vegetation communities (Linder 2014). These novel vegetation communities, characterised by C4 grasses and remaining forest elements, are associated with higher altitudes throughout Africa. Near the warmer and humid Chapter 2 20 Drakensberg plant diversity in the face of global change tropics the forest component of this vegetation dominates, whereas at higher latitudes under cooler and drier conditions grassland dominates (Meadows and Linder 1993). In the Drakensberg, patches of these evergreen forests are confined to cooler moist depressions and areas protected from fire (below ±2000 m a.s.l.) (Adie et al. 2017). Similar to other African forests surrounded by grasslands, these are species impoverished compared to their adjacent grasslands (Meadows and Linder 1993, Adie et al. 2017). Examples of subtropical elements found in the Drakensberg grasslands include Poaceae species such as, Loudetia simplex and Monocymbium ceresiiforme, and Hypericum and Cussonia genera (Meadows and Linder 1993, Linder 2014). Interestingly, the adaptation of alpine Cape elements to these fire-prone grasslands beginning in the Pliocene (5.3 Ma) is an example of one of the most recent plant radiations on the continent (Linder 2014). The 900 m uplifting of the Drakensberg during this epoch provided new montane habitat extremes and following glacial-interglacial swings would have prompted the radiation of Asteraceae genera (Carbutt and Edwards 2006, Bentley et al. 2014, Linder 2014). 2.3.4 Low-altitude temperate grasslands with tropical savanna elements The sub-escarpment temperate grasslands in the lower portion of the study area have affinities with savanna floral elements (Mucina et al. 2006). African savanna plant diversity is centred on the watershed between the Congo, Zambezi and Ruaha rivers (Linder 2014). Acacias, the quintessential African savanna tree, specifically Acacia sieberiana and Acacia nilotica (alternative names Vachellia sieberiana and Vachellia nilotica) are found in sub-escarpment Drakensberg grasslands (Mucina et al. 2006). The evolution of savanna flora is closely linked to the development of C4 grasslands and associated increase in fire frequency in the Miocene (23.0–5.3 Ma) (Keeley and Rundel 2005). However, typical savanna-clade pollen and fossils originate from the earlier Palaeogene (66.0–23.0 Ma) (Muller 1981). Climate and fire are important drivers of savanna extent, and the density of savanna woody trees and shrubs. In drier cooler conditions, woody plants are largely limited by temperature, and soil moisture (see section 2.5.4). Under mesic conditions (&650 mm mean annual precipitation), without fire woody plants dominate and transform grasslands and savannas to fynbos, thicket and forest (Bond et al. 2003). The influence of herbivory on woody vegetation is generally positive (Hobbs 1996), however, densities of herbivores were likely too low to exert an overriding influence on vegetation, in the Drakensberg (Rowe-Rowe and Scotcher 1986) (see section 2.3.5, below). Temperature and rainfall seasonality have driven the extent of deciduous fire-prone C3 and C4 grasslands in the Drakensberg. During cooler or winter-wet periods temperate grasslands and fynbos have tracked the expansion of these conditions into lower altitudes. Similarly, in the lower reaches of the study area, temperate grasslands have shifted into lower savannas during cooler and more arid periods, and vice versa (Bredenkamp et al. 2002, Linder 2014). The deciduous nature of C4 grasslands provided the fuel for lightning-driven fire regimes which favoured the spread of these (Manry and Knight 1986, Keeley and Rundel 2005, Neumann et al. 2014). The contemporary influence of humans on the fire regime is discussed in section 2.4. Chapter 2 21 Drakensberg plant diversity in the face of global change 2.3.5 Indigenous, low-pressure herbivory regimes Drakensberg grasslands only support low, year-round, or at most moderate-herbivore densities for transient periods, largely owing to a winter nutritional bottleneck (Mentis and Duke 1976, Rowe-Rowe and Scotcher 1986). Two decades of herbivore estimates, where herbivore numbers were unconstrained by humans, revealed that population numbers were naturally restricted (Rowe-Rowe and Scotcher 1986). These grasslands are known as ‘sour grassveld’ because they are palatable only in spring and early summer and after burns when fresh regrowth occurs. The low herbage palatability is due to the high rainfall and consequent leaching of soil nutrients in the area (Mentis and Duke 1976, Tainton 1999). At lower altitudes (<1000 m a.s.l.) where rainfall decreases, the soils retain more nutrients and can support greater year-round herbivore densities (Mentis and Duke 1976, Rowe-Rowe and Scotcher 1986). The historic pattern of herbivore movement in the Drakensberg region has been difficult to establish due to extirpation under hunting pressure and displacement via human settlement by the 1860s (Wright and Mazel 2007). Over geological time scales, palaeoecological and archaeological research has revealed that herbivore densities have fluctuated with climate and associated C3 and C4 grassland extents. Over these fluctuations, herbivore densities increased during warmer conditions where more palatable C4 grasslands were dominant (Parker et al. 2011). Historical documentation compiled within the last century suggests that some larger herbivore species migrated seasonally along the elevational gradient of KwaZulu-Natal, from the lower coast-ward regions in winter to higher grasslands in spring and summer (Rowe-Rowe and Scotcher 1986, Rowe-Rowe and Taylor 1996, Wright and Mazel 2007, Boshoff and Kerley 2015). During such migrations larger herds of herbivores would have concentrated in fertile lowlands, but their increased densities would have been transient. Land transformation, which has impeded this type of seasonal migration in the Drakensberg, has likely contributed to the reductions of indigenous herbivore populations (Boshoff and Kerley 2015, Patel et al. 2019). Many of the smaller ungulates, restricted to specialized habitat patches, such as bushbuck (Tragelaphus scriptus Pallas, 1766) and grey duiker (Sylvicapra grimmia Linnaeus, 1758) in forest and thicket, klipspringer (Oreotragus oreotragus E. A. W. Zimmermann, 1783) on rocky outcrops, mountain reedbuck (Redunca fulvorufula Afzelius, 1815) on steep slopes, common reedbuck (Redunca arundinum Boddaert, 1785) in vlei and grassland (Rowe-Rowe and Scotcher 1986), grey rhebuck (Pelea capreolus Forster, 1790) which feed mainly on forbs (Rowe-Rowe and Scotcher 1986), and oribi (Ourebia ourebi E. A. W. Zimmermann, 1783) to vlei and plateau have extant populations concentrated in protected areas (Mthimkhulu et al. 2019). Larger herbivores, such as black wildebeest (Connochaetes gnou E. A. W. Zimmermann, 1780), blesbok (Damaliscus pygargus Pallas, 1767), red hartebeest (Alcelaphus buselaphus Pallas, 1767) and Burchell’s zebra (Equus quagga Boddaert, 1785) are mostly restricted to a few protected areas (Rowe-Rowe and Scotcher 1986, Mthimkhulu et al. 2019). Common eland (Tragelaphus oryx Pallas, 1766) is the only indigenous, large herbivores that commonly utilize high altitude Drakensberg grasslands (>1400 m a.s.l.), particularly the new grass growth in spring. Their more selective feeding of woody plants, forbs, and grass make this seasonal strategy possible for supporting relatively low numbers of eland in the Drakensberg (0.75 eland·km-2) (Scotcher 1982, Rowe-Rowe and Scotcher 1986). Furthermore, Chapter 2 22 Drakensberg plant diversity in the face of global change their capability of traversing steep terrain has enabled their exploitation of high altitude Drakensberg grasslands (Rowe-Rowe and Scotcher 1986). Other herbivores (and omnivores) whose foraging habits in the Drakensberg remain largely unexplored include rodents such as mole rats (e.g., Cryptomys natalensis Roberts, 1913) and Chacma baboons (Papio ursinus Kerr, 1792). Chacma baboon densities are however considered low due to the harsher climate and relative scarcity of food compared to savanna habitat (Henzi et al. 1992). The low, year-round densities of indigenous ungulates and other herbivores in Drakensberg grasslands is expected to have a correspondingly low impact on overall grassland diversity (Rowe-Rowe and Scotcher 1986, Morris 2017). In contrast, the replacement of these species with livestock at high stocking rates is known to negatively affect indigenous grassland-plant diversity in ‘sour grassveld’, especially under continuous grazing. This suggests that these grasslands evolved under low, year-round grazing pressure (O’Connor et al. 2010, Joubert et al. 2014, Morris 2017). 2.4 Novel disturbance regimes: intensifying human settlement, from hunter-gatherers to farmers 2.4.1 Hunter-gatherers 80 to 24 ka: Middle to Late Stone Age hunter-gatherers in Lesotho The first evidence for the presence of humans in the vicinity of the Drakensberg was in eastern Lesotho (Fig. 2.1) in the Pleistocene and the occupations were strongly pulsed at ca. 80, 60, 50, 46–38 and 24 ka (this pulsed occupation continued into the second millennium BP in Lesotho) (Stewart et al. 2012). Comparably favourable highland conditions made Lesotho attractive for settlement, even through the climatically unstable Late Pleistocene to Holocene transition. The mountainous terrain provided reliable water resources during arid periods, plus a diversity of natural resources associated with complex topography (Mitchell 1992, Stewart et al. 2012). 25,000–600 BP: Late Stone Age to Late Iron Age San hunter-gatherers To the east of the Lesotho highlands, there is some evidence of limited Middle Stone Age occupation ca. 25,000 ka in the KwaZulu-Natal Drakensberg (Mazel 1982). From this time until an insubstantial occupation in 8000 BP, no archaeological signs of occupation are evident. Then from 3000 to 1600 BP there was more intensive San occupation, where after they moved to the lower central Thukela basin (to the north-east of the study area shown in Fig. 2.1) where farming communities were already present. After a millennium of absence hunter-gatherers made a reappearance in the study area, in 600 BP (Wright and Mazel 2007). Based on other similar hunter-gatherer communities, the minimum population density in the area would have ranged from 0.01 to 0.06 persons per km2 (Mazel 1989). The San hunter-gatherers in the Drakensberg likely followed the seasonal movement of large herbivores along the altitudinal gradient from the KwaZulu-Natal coast to Drakensberg mountains in summer (Wright and Mazel 2007). Resources for San in the Drakensberg were Chapter 2 23 Drakensberg plant diversity in the face of global change plentiful in summer while these were scarcer but sufficient in the cold winter. Over time, particularly in the lower Thukela basin, a pattern of land use intensification emerged and a less nomadic culture dependent on food plants, smaller mammals and fish emerged. These patterns coincided with general social, economic and nutritional stresses. Seeds, bulbs, and corms became an increasing important part of their diet as evidenced by archaeological excavations (Mazel 1989, Wright and Mazel 2007). The appearance of isiNtu (Bantu) speaking farmers in the region (from 600 BP) between the Drakensberg and coast may have inhibited their nomadic behaviour along this altitudinal gradient (Wright and Mazel 2007). The relatively low number of San, and their likely seasonal occupation suggests their impact on the vegetation was low (Hilliard and Burtt 1987), but intensive use of certain plant species may have had some localized influences especially, within the vicinity of cave shelters. Plants comprised the most important component of their diet even when animals were relatively abundant (Mazel 1989, Wright and Mazel 2007). It is possible that San used burns before spring to promote the growth of perennial grassland plants with underground storage organs with starches. Local patch burning in the dry season is likely to have been practised to attract herbivores to the new grass growth (Hilliard and Burtt 1987, Deacon and Deacon 1999). However, the influence of humans on the fire regime in not traceable until 600 BP. An analysis of charcoal deposits in a sediment core from the Cathedral Peak research catchments indicates that throughout the most of the Holocene (10k to 600 BP) charcoal deposition fluctuated over millennia to a few centuries. These fluctuations correspond to changes in moisture and temperature variation which affected vegetation growth and fuel for fires (Lodder 2007, Lodder et al. 2017). This suggests that fire was largely climatically driven during the Holocene, and that San fire usage corresponded to natural drivers such as lightning (Hilliard and Burtt 1987, Neumann et al. 2014, Lodder et al. 2017, Finch et al. 2021). 2.4.2 Farmers 1750–200 BP: Zizi farmers The settlement of agropastoral communities in the Drakensberg has had a pervasive influence on the plant diversity of the Drakensberg. Early farmers have been suggested to burn grassland to provide nutritious, year-round herbaceous forage for livestock, and as fire breaks, for controlling the spread of fire (Finch et al. 2021). Following burns, the flush of nutritious grass re-growth is valued for maintaining livestock. Evidence from charcoal deposits in sediment cores and archaeological excavations suggest that with the encroachment of farmers into the Drakensberg from lower sub-escarpment grasslands (from 600 BP), fire usage in these areas increased (February 1994, Lodder 2012, Neumann et al. 2014). Fires, especially with strong easterly winds, would have travelled from Drakensberg lowlands to the escarpment (Granger 1976). The Iron Age farmers in the study area concentrated in the savanna-grassland ecotone of sub-escarpment grasslands (towards Bergville and Winterton, see Fig. 2.1). The lack of trees in grasslands at higher altitudes would have limited their settlement away from savannas (Maggs 1982, Wright and Mazel 2007). Archaeology suggests that grasslands were more extensive at lower altitudes at the time of Iron Age settlement; savanna encroachment has occurred since the Chapter 2 24 Drakensberg plant diversity in the face of global change arrival of these farmers (Maggs 1982). In the absence of trees in sub-escarpment grassland (Fig. 2.1), farmers probably used maize cobs and dung to fuel domestic fires (Maggs 1982). The main crops of these farmers were millets and sorghums. Later on, maize which has a higher yield and is easier to grow, was introduced probably by Portuguese settlers along the coa