Opposite polarities of ENSO drive distinct patterns of coral bleaching potentials in the southeast Indian Ocean

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dc.contributor.author Zhang, N.
dc.contributor.author Feng, M.
dc.contributor.author Hendon, H.H.
dc.contributor.author Hobday, A.J.
dc.contributor.author Zinke, J.
dc.date.accessioned 2017-10-18T14:17:33Z
dc.date.available 2017-10-18T14:17:33Z
dc.date.issued 2017
dc.identifier.citation Zhang, N. et al. 2017. Opposite polarities of ENSO drive distinct patterns of coral bleaching potentials in the southeast Indian Ocean. Scientific Reports 7(1), Article number 2443. en_ZA
dc.identifier.issn 2045-2322 (Online)
dc.identifier.uri http://hdl.handle.net/10539/23281
dc.description.abstract Episodic anomalously warm sea surface temperature (SST) extremes, or marine heatwaves (MHWs), amplify ocean warming effects and may lead to severe impacts on marine ecosystems. MHW-induced coral bleaching events have been observed frequently in recent decades in the southeast Indian Ocean (SEIO), a region traditionally regarded to have resilience to global warming. In this study, we assess the contribution of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) to MHWs across the mostly understudied reefs in the SEIO. We find that in extended summer months, the MHWs at tropical and subtropical reefs (divided at ∼20°S) are driven by opposite ENSO polarities: MHWs are more likely to occur at the tropical reefs during eastern Pacific El Niño, driven by enhanced solar radiation and weaker Australian Monsoon, some likely alleviated by positive Indian Ocean Dipole events, and at the subtropical reefs during central Pacific La Niña, mainly caused by increased horizontal heat transport, and in some cases reinforced by local air-sea interactions. Madden-Julian Oscillations (MJO) also modulate the MHW occurrences. Projected future increases in ENSO and MJO intensity with greenhouse warming will enhance thermal stress across the SEIO. Implementing forecasting systems of MHWs can be used to anticipate future coral bleaching patterns and prepare management responses. en_ZA
dc.language.iso en en_ZA
dc.publisher Nature Publishing Group en_ZA
dc.rights © 2017 Zhang, N. et al. This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. en_ZA
dc.subject Bleaching en_ZA
dc.subject Coral en_ZA
dc.subject Dipole en_ZA
dc.subject El Nino en_ZA
dc.subject Forecasting en_ZA
dc.subject Greenhouse en_ZA
dc.subject Indian Ocean en_ZA
dc.subject Solar radiation en_ZA
dc.subject Summer en_ZA
dc.subject Temperature stress en_ZA
dc.subject Warming en_ZA
dc.title Opposite polarities of ENSO drive distinct patterns of coral bleaching potentials in the southeast Indian Ocean en_ZA
dc.type Article en_ZA
dc.journal.volume 7 en_ZA
dc.journal.title Scientific Reports en_ZA
dc.description.librarian EM2017 en_ZA
dc.citation.doi 10.1038/s41598-017-02688-y en_ZA
dc.citation.issue 1 en_ZA


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