Faculty of Commerce, Law and Management (ETDs)
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Item Regulating Informal Housing Practices in South Africa(University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, 2020) Ngulube, Mxolisi Artwell; Pieterse, MariusThis paper delves into government’s failure to recognise and regulate informal housing as an acceptable form of housing. The paper in no way suggests that the regulation and recognition of the informal housing sector will solve the housing crisis nor that informal housing will replace formal housing. Instead, it calls for the government to view informal housing as a viable form of housing for many urban city dwellers. It acknowledges that informal housing in its current form may not meet the standard of ‘adequate housing’ but argues that with recognition, service provision and other support from the government, informal housing can meet the standard of adequate housing as required by section 26 of the Constitution. Central to this paper is the notion that informal housing needs recognition and regulation by the government as it caters to a reasonable percentage of the South African population despite formal housing being provided especially in the main cities. This notion is supported by section 26 as well as the right to the city. The existing legislative and policy framework inadequately addresses informal housing – it either calls for eradication or upgrading (which is a less aggressive form of eradication) but not recognition. This gap needs to be addressed, and it is only in addressing this gap that informal housing can be catered for. Informal housing is as important as formal housing in the South African housing framework as it houses some of the marginalised in our society and offers a unique offering which government cannot replicate.Item Market entry and competitive advantage of new solar ventures in South Africa(University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, 2025) Labuschagne, JuanItem The Bias ratio: An effective fraud identification tool(University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, 2025) Haddad, Remon; van Vuuren, GaryFinancial fraud poses significant risks with far-reaching consequences, particularly in the context of growing assets under management and expanding equity markets. This thesis underscores the urgent need for robust measures to safeguard investors from fraudulent activities by exploring the consequences of notorious fraud cases such as Bernie Madoff’s Ponzi scheme. Through analyses of hedge fund, index fund and stock price return data in the US and SA, over various periods starting in 1997 to 2024, it becomes evident that tools such as the Bias ratio, kurtosis, and skewness can serve as effective mechanisms for detecting fraudulent behaviour. The Bias ratio emerges as a dual-purpose tool. Beyond its fraud detection capabilities, it functions as a performance measurement metric akin to the Sharpe ratio, offering additional value during security analysis. By highlighting suspicious historical outperformance and signalling securities with unusual performance patterns, the Bias ratio enriches the evaluation process, enabling investors to make informed decisions and avoid fraudulent investments. This thesis demonstrates the efficacy of the Bias ratio by examining its application in the notorious Madoff case, where it successfully flagged fraudulent activity that was overlooked by traditional measures like the Sharpe ratio. The findings emphasize the critical role of the Bias ratio in validating the legitimacy of returns and enhancing investor protection.Item The interplay of energy access and labor market outcomes in South Africa(University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, 2025) Moyo, Nomathamsanqa; Adetutu, MorakinyoThis study investigates the relationship between energy access and employment opportunities in South Africa using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model, analyzing macroeconomic data spanning 1990 to 2022. Unlike previous research focused on rural areas, this study adopts a macro-level approach, encompassing both urban and rural regions. The findings reveal a positive short- and long-run association between energy access and employment, indicating that increased electricity access correlates with higher employment levels. Inflation negatively affects employment, while foreign direct investment (FDI) and gross domestic product (GDP) have positive associations. Trade is significant in the short run but becomes insignificant in the long run. These results highlight key policy implications: expanding access to electricity, particularly in underserved areas, and investing in renewable energy infrastructure can enhance employment opportunities. Attracting FDI through improved infrastructure and incentives, implementing sound monetary policies to control inflation, and supporting economic growth through small and medium enterprises and innovation are critical for sustaining employment. Additionally, addressing South Africa’s high dependence on imports and promoting export-oriented industries can amplify the long-term benefits of trade on employment, emphasizing the need for targeted, structural policy interventions.Item Predicting Wind Energy Production in South Africa Using Machine Learning(University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, 2025) Reddy, Sivasha; Kutela, DambalaSouth Africa faces an urgent and escalating energy crisis driven by ageing coal infrastructure, frequent load shedding, and rising electricity demand. Wind energy presents a viable renewable energy alternative with significant potential to alleviate these challenges; however, its inherent variability complicates grid stability and energy planning. Accurate wind energy forecasting is essential for optimising power dispatch, minimising curtailment, and enhancing energy security. Despite advancements, traditional forecasting methods, such as physical models and statistical techniques, struggle to capture the complex and nonlinear nature of wind patterns, particularly in data-scarce environments like South Africa. This study investigates the application of machine learning models to improve wind power forecasting in South Africa, where data constraints and fluctuating meteorological conditions pose unique challenges. The research examines the effectiveness of machine learning in predicting wind energy production and assesses the role of explainable artificial intelligence techniques, such as SHapley Additive exPlanations, in enhancing model transparency and interpretability. Using historical meteorological data and turbine performance records from a South African independent power producer, the study evaluates multiple machine learning approaches to determine their predictive performance. A comparative analysis of different machine learning models highlights the most reliable techniques for wind energy prediction. The findings demonstrate that XGBoost outperforms Random Forest, Decision Tree, and K-Nearest Neighbour. Furthermore, the machine learning methods show a significant improvement over traditional statistical techniques, offering improved predictive accuracy while providing insights into key meteorological and operational factors influencing wind power generation. The integration of explainable artificial intelligence further ensures interpretability, fostering trust and practical usability among stakeholders. This research contributes to the renewable energy forecasting literature by adapting machine learning solutions to a data-scarce environment and emphasising the role of interpretability in real-world adoption. The results provide valuable insights for policymakers, energy planners, and grid operators, supporting South Africa’s transition to a more sustainable and resilient energy future. However, the study's findings may be limited in generalisability and accuracy due to the analysis focusing on a single wind turbine chosen based on data availability rather than representativeness. Consequently, the results may not extend to other wind farms or turbines operating under different geographic or climatic conditions.Item The role of persuasion in choosing plant-based food products: An application of the Elaboration Likelihood Model and Behavioural Reasoning Theory(University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, 2025) Cheng, Joy; De Villiers, Marike VenterThe global shift from meat-based to plant-based food products has become increasingly prominent, driven by growing concerns over personal health and sustainability. However, in developing nations like South Africa, the adoption of plant-based diets is slower, primarily due to high food insecurity and meat’s central role as a protein source. This study aimed to investigate how marketers and food companies can influence the behavioural intentions of the Strawberry Generation (young consumers) to adopt a plant-based food lifestyle. The research was grounded in the Elaboration Likelihood Model (ELM) and the Behavioural Reasoning Theory (BRT), which informed the study's main constructs. ELM posits two routes of persuasion (peripheral and central) which target emotional and rational processing, while BRT emphasises the role of consumers’ values and belief systems in shaping their decisions. Using a sequential mixed-method approach, Phase I involved focus groups and a thematic analysis to develop a conceptual model. Phase II tested the model by surveying 426 young South African consumers. The data were analysed using Nvivo for qualitative insights and SPSS (IBM) and SmartPLS for quantitative analysis. The study’s findings revealed that product taste and product knowledge were the most influential factors driving young consumers’ decisions to choose PBPs. Additionally, factors such as product quality, affordability, social influence, and product packaging played a role, but to a lesser extent. Theoretical contributions of this research are significant as it expands the limited academic literature on PBPs by exploring consumer behaviour through the lens of cognitive processing (central and peripheral) and understanding the motives behind behavioural intentions. This study also presents a new conceptual model, developed through the integration of key components from the ELM and BRT, offering valuable insights for future research and practical marketing strategies. These findings are essential for advancing academic knowledge in the field and for food marketers seeking to influence the dietary choices of young consumers in emerging markets.Item Business Case: Green-Certified Buildings in South Africa’s Residential Rental Market(University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, 2025) Roodt, IlonaIn this paper, the characteristics of the Excellence in Design for Greater Efficiencies (EDGE) green building certification system is explained, and the energy and water savings in a portfolio of residential units in the EDGE-certified residential building portfolio in South Africa was investigated. This research analysed the efficiency of energy and water usage, following certification, and the contribution to lowering building running costs and increasing property values was investigated. The research revealed that the portfolio design of EDGE-certified buildings results is, on average, a 42% energy saving and a 54% water saving across the portfolio. The research explores the overall reduction in building operating costs and the impact on property return by considering the payback period of the additional investment. The US Green Building Council indicate operating costs drop by 13%, with a drop of 10.5% in the first year and then an average of 16.9% over five years. The research revealed that overall cost savings are significant, the cost of greening is recouped on average over 6 years and this means that property returns increase. The US Green Building Council indicate that property values increase by between 4%-6% for a study relating to LEED-certified buildings. The research signifies the importance of bringing down energy and water costs to preserve and increase return and value, and this may be catalytic in increasing affordable housing investment and tenant standards of living. Where this activity is at scale within the right policy framework, an overall reduction in emissions may occur.Item COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy in South Africa(University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, 2024) Afari-Twumasi, Kwabena Kumi; Totowa, JacquesThe purpose of this research was to examine why the level of COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy in South Africa is relatively high compared to the global average, despite more reassuring information being known about the safety and efficacy of the vaccines. This study zoned in on what factors most influence the decision to not get vaccinated against COVID-19 and what may influence the unvaccinated to change their mind. The overarching research problem was to develop effective strategies to move COVID-19 vaccine hesitants across the vaccine acceptance/rejection spectrum to the end where they are willing to get vaccinated. “Vaccine hesitancy refers to delay in acceptance or refusal of vaccination despite availability of vaccination services.” (MacDonald, 2015) The research looked at adults whose primary residency or occupation was in the Republic of South Africa. The entire survey was done via an anonymous online, largely Likert scale type, questionnaire. Most respondents were between the ages of 25 and 44 and had at least an undergraduate degree. There was an even balance between male and female respondents in the sample. Some of the key highlights revealed in the study were: There is a fair level of distrust over government’s motives when it comes to the handling of the COVID-19 pandemic About a third of respondents do not have conviction in the efficacy of the COVID-19 vaccines Over half of respondents believe that mainstream media is unreliable or biased Almost a quarter of all respondents have not been vaccinated Common methods of encouraging the hesitant to vaccinate (e.g., Prohibiting travel to other countries) are unlikely to work in South Africa To improve COVID-19 vaccine uptake, the following recommendations were made: Health authorities should keep educating people about why the vaccines are safe for human beings and how they can offer protection from serious illness or death Health authorities should collaborate with mainstream media to build public trust. They should pay more attention to how the media portrays the pandemic to the public – the language used in reporting, the subject matter experts invited to speak, signs of bias, etc Government should try to improve public trust in how they are handling the pandemic. One way to do this would be to make the decision making of the National Coronavirus Command Council (NCCC) more transparent to the publicItem Examining the Effects of Oil Price Shocks on Unemployment in South Africa and Nigeria(University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, 2024) Nomarola, Nolundi FelicityThis study investigates the impact of oil price shocks on unemployment dynamics in South Africa and Nigeria, two major economies in Africa with significant oil sectors. The relationship between oil price fluctuations and unemployment is analysed using time- series data spanning from 1976 to 2021, employing the Autoregressive-distributed lag (ARDL) and the Nonlinear ARDL models. The ARDL model in South Africa shows a significant long-term increase in unemployment due to increased oil prices, while in Nigeria, it indicates a negative relationship. In the short run, in South Africa oil price shocks have an insignificant effect, while in Nigeria, they have a significant negative impact. The NARDL model also reveals asymmetrical effects. The NARDL model revealed asymmetrical long-run and short-run effects. In South Africa, the magnitude of the impact of increasing oil prices on unemployment is larger than of falling oil prices in both the short-run and long-run, while for Nigeria, falling prices have a larger magnitude.Item The role of trust and risk in the adoption of super apps in South Africa(University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, 2024) Ndaba, Mpumelelo; Hughes, MitchellA super app is an “all in one” mobile application that provides the user with core features and access to a wide range of third-party created “mini apps” that they can choose to activate. Typical functions within existing super apps include instant messaging, food ordering and delivery, ridesharing, appointment bookings, e-commerce and utility bill payments, among several other features. This all-in-one application has gained signi[icant success in Asia, with WeChat and Alipay in China being the most popular super apps in the world, collectively providing over one billion users with a variety of services without having to switch between different mobile applications. Because the super app is an emerging phenomenon, the factors in[luencing adoption are currently ill-understood. A preliminary review of the literature revealed that most existing studies on super apps were conducted in Asia, where numerous super apps are currently available. This gap in academic research presents an opportunity to explore super app adoption within the African context, speci[ically in South Africa. This study aims to determine how trust and risk in[luence the potential adoption of super apps in South Africa by utilising the trust- based consumer decision-making model by Kim, Ferrin, and Rao (2008) as the theoretical framework to examine the roles of trust, risk, and bene[it in this process. The study employed a quantitative research method, speci[ically using a survey questionnaire for data collection, and was conducted within the positivist paradigm. The [indings revealed a signi[icant positive correlation between trust and adoption intention, highlighting the crucial role of trustworthiness in the acceptance of novel technologies. Interestingly, contrary to common belief, the study also found a positive correlation between perceived risk and adoption intention, indicating that higher perceived risk does not necessarily deter users from adopting super apps. These unexpected results underscore the complexity of user decision-making in the adoption of emerging technologies and suggest a need for further investigation into the underlying dynamics driving adoption behaviour.