Electronic Theses and Dissertations (PhDs)

Permanent URI for this collectionhttps://hdl.handle.net/10539/37946

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    Evaluation of the civilian intelligence service oversight model: A South African perspective
    (University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, 2024) Radebe, Osiel Bongani; Van Nieuwkerk, Antoni
    Intelligence serves as a cornerstone of state security, fulfilling a vital role in the protection of national interests and guarding against threats. Despite its secretive nature, intelligence operations and mandates are entrusted with significant statutory powers across nations to uphold state security. To ensure the rule of law and the protection of citizens' civil rights, robust governance frameworks are imperative. This research seeks to evaluate the effectiveness of South Africa's civilian intelligence oversight system post-1994. Central to this evaluation are the regulatory and institutional arrangements governing intelligence services and officials. Drawing upon governance principles encompassing oversight, transparency, accountability, and democratic control; the study also explores institutional norms and standards. Furthermore, it explores the potential impact of aligning societal and constitutional values with regulatory and oversight mechanisms. Research results indicate weaknesses in the existing civilian intelligence oversight model. This highlights inadequacies in holding intelligence services and officials accountable. Consequently, the research advocates for reforming the civilian intelligence oversight system. Emphasis must be placed on reviewing legal frameworks, oversight institutions and mechanisms, and procedural measures to enhance transparency and accountability. Rather than a complete overhaul, the research recommends targeted improvements to existing mechanisms. Moreover, the study underscores the need for better integration of societal and constitutional values into intelligence oversight arrangements. Aligning these values with regulatory frameworks is essential to ensuring coherence and efficacy in governance practices.
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    Impact analysis of institutional quality on foreign direct investment inflows into the Southern African Development Community (SADC) region
    (University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, 2022) Malindini, Kholiswa; Pillay, Pundy
    The quality of governance has increasingly become a significant determinant of foreign direct investment inflows in recipient countries. Although extensive research has been conducted internationally to examine the role of institutional quality on foreign direct investment inflows, this concept has not been thoroughly interrogated in the Southern African Development Community (SADC) context. The region is poverty-stricken, unemployment rates are skyrocketing, economic growth is deteriorating, and the region only accounts for only one percent of global FDI. Thus, this study sought to examine three main objectives critically: first, the effect of institutional quality on foreign direct investment inflows into the SADC region; second, the influence of the financial development on the FDI-institutional quality nexus and thirdly, to assess whether countries’ income levels matter for attracting FDI inflows. FDI as a percentage of GDP was measured as a dependent variable, while institutional quality, financial development, natural resource availability, and GDP growth were the main explanatory variables. The study controlled for inflation rates, trade openness, and trade policy. An interaction term was generated to evaluate the effect of financial development on the FDI-institutional quality nexus in the SADC region. In order to achieve the research objectives, a mixed-methods approach was adopted, and a convergence research design was applied. Secondary data for other macroeconomic variables were drawn from the World Bank Development Indicators. In contrast, data for financial development were drawn from the International Monetary Fund’s Financial Development Index database, and data for governance indicators were drawn from the Worldwide Governance Indicators’ database. Primary data was collected through semi-structured interviews and survey questionnaires. Econometric models were developed to analyse panel data from 2011 – 2018 for 15 SADC member states to achieve the set objectives quantitatively. Specifically, the study adopted the Generalised System Methods of Moments (GMM) as the appropriate and efficient estimation technique for the analysis. Using a Pillar Integration Process, the data were integrated. The overall findings suggested that, while GDP growth, trade openness, and natural resources positively influence FDI inflows into the region and are statistically significant, institutional quality, inflation, trade policy and financial development are negatively and statistically significant coefficients towards FDI. The results revealed that a poor regulatory environment, the rule of law, and weak accountability are the main disincentives to improved quality of governance. The overall results indicated that weak institutional quality is still a significant challenge as far as inward FDI attraction is concerned; the lack of an enforcement mechanism directly impacts foreign investor property rights protection and eventually deters foreign investment inflows. Also, the unstable political framework that fails to sufficiently support economic institutions and ensure certainty, and the lack of political will, particularly by heads of government to implement and prioritize regional objectives over national interests, is a significant problem and stifles progress towards more profound integration. It also transpired that the financial markets and institutions within the region are not efficiently developed and are still fragmented, and this is attributed to macroeconomic instability and weak macroeconomic convergence. The findings also revealed that the countries’ income levels do not matter as far as FDI attraction is concerned. Based on these results, it may be necessary for SADC member states to adopt an institutional framework that promotes collaboration in the region and ensures effective and efficient implementation of the potential protocols. Given the dominance of national sovereignty over regional objectives, it may be worth examining the regimes that govern the member states; based on the view that sometimes non-compliance by member states emanates from the regime, which may sometimes not support regionalism. Convergent bilateral and multilateral arrangements are necessary for the region. The region needs to raise its export competitiveness by attracting domestic and foreign investments, and a rigorous trade integration process is a prerequisite. Policymakers in the region should focus on working together with institutions to promote development in the banking sector. Further, given the adverse effects of financial development on FDI inflows due to rising domestic credit by the banking sector, efforts should be made to maintain domestic credit levels to allow room for more FD
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    The role of decentralisation in managing intra-state conflict in South Africa
    (University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, 2023-07) Fourie, Reneva Esther; Van Nieuwkerk, Anthoni
    This research study investigates the imperatives that led to the formation of South Africa’s post-apartheid decentralisation model and the conditions that enabled it to relatively appease the key role-players in South Africa’s pre-1994 conflict, as well as to critique the contribution of the model to state legitimacy. It is set in the context of decentralisation and intra-state conflict on the African continent in an endeavour to contribute to the African Union’s efforts to ‘Silencing the Guns’ by 2030. Regardless of its form, decentralisation is profoundly controversial, yet it is crucial to transitional governments and post-conflict reconstruction debates. However, current literature does not sufficiently enable us to understand the conditions under which a country can devise a decentralisation model that responds to the drivers of conflict. South Africa’s unique historical experience in the development of its post-apartheid model of decentralisation provides an opportunity to critique and discuss these debates through a fascinating case study. Qualitative data collection methods, analysed through a specially constructed three dimensional framework, underpin this interpretive case study. The data collection method for dimension one of the decentralisation framework of analysis is semi-structured interviews with persons who either participated directly in the design of the decentralisation model, or influenced, or observed the process. It responds to the research question, ‘What is the role of decentralisation in managing intra-state conflict in South Africa?’ The sub-questions relate to the context, formation process, and design of the decentralisation model and its perceived effectiveness. Furthermore, document analyses are applied to critique the model’s contribution to state legitimacy. In this regard, primary sources are analysed in dimension two to demonstrate how regulatory prescripts support the decentralisation model to facilitate a reciprocal interrelationship between power and authority; to promote compliance, trust, accountability and innovation; to drive the interplay between these former two aspects; and to enable citizen influence and oversight and social reciprocities. Additionally, document analyses of domestic and international quantitative secondary sources are applied in dimension three to critique governance effectiveness concerning economic management, social development, government orientation and citizen participation. The research study provides new insight into the conditions that preceded and surrounded South Africa’s transition and the different challenges and interests to which the negotiations over decentralisation tried to respond. In South Africa, the depth of the conflict had attained such severity that it had reached a point where there was mutual agreement that some accommodation had to be found. The collectively agreed, unitary post-apartheid decentralisation model, which has significant federal features, sustained the peace for almost three decades. The research study, by applying the three-dimensional framework of analysis, also provides theoretical insights into the relationship between a given decentralisation model and state legitimacy as part of managing intra-state conflict. However, by focusing only on the intrinsic aspects of managing intra-state conflict, the study does not deal with the complexities that arise from adverse external interests and interferences. Furthermore, so many factors shape state legitimacy, which cannot be addressed by a decentralisation model only. Accordingly, the study finds that despite the post-apartheid decentralisation model’s effectiveness in relatively appeasing all the negotiation participants, it was an incomplete arrangement in that it could not contribute to stemming poverty and inequality or empowering local communities. The conclusion flowing from this research is that decentralisation is an eminently political process that, at its best, is dynamic and elastic in responding to changing times and that its application in conditions of conflict is relative.