Dynamic simulation modelling of locust outbreaks
Date
1998
Authors
Tilch, David
Journal Title
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Abstract
Much about the life history and biology of the Brown Locust, Locustana pardalina
(Walker), is known and documented; little is known of how locust populations
change and move, owing to their occurrence in sparsely inhabited regions of
southern Africa.
With a view to understanding the mechanisms driving population fluctuations, a
model for simulating plague events was developed for the Mathworks Matlab™
interpreter. A previously developed model, applying rules that determine the
transitions between the stages of the locust life-cycle, contingent on daily rainfall
and temperature records, was enhanced by migration probability functions based
on the distance between stations, wind speed, locust flight duration and wind
heading.
It was hypothesised that incorporating the phenomenon of wind-facilitated
migration into the basic model would increase the accuracy of predictiors. The
inclusion of migration tracking routines manifests itself in improvements in the
simulation of outbreak events with respect to timing.
Description
Dissertation submission to the Faculty of Science, University of the Witwatersrand, in fulfilment of the requirements for Master of Science
Keywords
Simulation methods., Locusts -- Control -- Research., Migratory locust.