Spatio-temporal effects of rainfall on stream/river flow in the Kruger National Park, South Africa
Date
2017
Authors
Lipsett, Ashley Sarah
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Abstract
The primary aim of this research project is to scientifically investigate the impact that climate change has on streams/rivers in selected regions of the Kruger National Park (KNP). Rainfall and stream/river flow data are statistically used to determine the extent to which rainfall events, and in particular, extreme rainfall events, influence flow regimes. The rainfall data obtained for evaluation date back as far as 1911, thus providing a near 100-year record of climate variability and change for the region. Stream/river gauge data date back as far as 1960, thus allowing the analyses of rainfall impacts on streamflow for over half a century. The rainfall data has shown that in some parts of KNP, total annual rainfall is increasing, however, this increase in total annual rainfall is due to the increasing severity of rainfall events. The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Is impacting rainfall variability in northeastern South Africa, and thus rainfall events are more sporadic, with longer drought phases. Data has shown a mostly positive correlation between rainfall events and stream/river flow trends. During El Niño years, the rivers of KNP have lower than average flows, and during years of intense rainfall events, stream/rivers have an above average flow trend. Some results have however shown a negative correlation between rainfall events and stream/river flow trends. The literature suggests that this negative correlation is due to additional impacts on stream/river flow such as anthropogenic land activities (Mining, agriculture, forestry). Additional investigation into these impacts can be done through future research. The evaluation of climatic parameters in relation to flow regimes in a protected area is a critical evaluation for the purposes of future projected climate change and hydrological change in the KNP. Management, decision makers and policy planners could use the information obtained from this research to supplement their current water restoration initiatives, and water provisioning objectives, to better manage for the future.
Description
A dissertation submitted to the Faculty of Science, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, in fulfilment of requirements for the degree of Master of Science. Johannesburg, 2017.