Earnings management in South Africa: evidence and implications
Date
2017
Authors
Rabin, Carol Elaine
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Abstract
Healy and Wahlen (1999:368) define earnings management as an event that “occurs when managers use judgement in financial reporting and in structuring transactions to alter financial reports to either mislead some stakeholders about the underlying economic performance of the company or to influence contractual outcomes that depend on reported accounting numbers.” Management’s intent to mislead users distinguishes accruals that signal managers’ inside information about future cash flows from earnings management which intends to misrepresent performance (Dechow and Skinner, 2000; Parfet, 2000). Earnings management is a very serious issue; if it is not detected it can result in large financial losses for investors and creditors. Earnings data is a fundamental input to valuing a firm’s shares and prospects. Erroneous assessments of future cash flows because of misleading information will result in invalid share valuations and incorrect lending decisions which can have negative consequences on capital markets. The severe negative consequences of earnings manipulation, if undetected, suggest that investors, auditors and regulatory bodies should be aware of the prevalence of earnings management in an economy, whether investors are able to detect and price suspected earnings management and the most efficient way to detect it. This thesis aims to answer two fundamental questions: Does earnings management exist in South Africa? Are investors in South Africa misled by earnings management?
How to detect earnings manipulation is the predominant theme in earnings management literature. The majority of research has been conducted in advanced economies and has transformed from identifying discontinuities in earnings distributions and measuring discretionary accruals to sophisticated predictive models, such as the F-score (Dechow, Ge, Larson and Sloan, 2011). Yet, research into the subject is sparse in emerging markets and tends to replicate existing methodology.
The objective of this thesis is to examine earnings management in the South African economy, with the specific aim of identifying a databank of suspected earnings management firms that can be used for further research. Because the number of firms that have been forced to restate earnings is small in this environment, this thesis resorts to identifying suspected earnings management firms using discontinuities in earnings distributions. South Africa is similar to other emerging economies in that it is characterised by concentrated ownership, weaker legal enforcement and a smaller stock exchange. The South African environment is dissimilar to emerging economies as the JSE is considered to be well regulated, accounting and auditing standards are world class and accounting transparency and disclosure are satisfactory (Leuz, Nanda, and Wysocki, 2003). The results of this thesis are relevant in an institutional and macroeconomic setting where incentives to manipulate earnings, enforcement, legal protection, rule of law and sample size may differ from those in developed economies. This thesis firstly, focuses on methodological issues that may be encountered by researchers in identifying discontinuities in earnings distributions in emerging economies and secondly, validates kernel density estimation, Lahr (2014), as a viable methodology to test for earnings management by comparing total accruals, discretionary accruals and working capital accruals between suspected earnings management and non-earnings management firms. Thirdly, deferred tax expense is considered as a predictor variable in place of discretionary accruals in detecting suspected earnings management firms. Finally, in order to investigate investors’ reaction to suspected earnings management this thesis investigates whether the market prices suspected earnings management firms differently from non-earnings management firms.
Pre- selected researcher binwidths (Burgstahler and Dichev, 1997, Coulton, Taylor and Taylor, 2005, Glaum, Lichtblau, and Lindemann, 2004; Holland and Ramsay, 2003) prove to be unsuitable in this milieu. Consequently kernel density estimation Lahr (2014), which derives bandwidths from the empirical earnings distributions, is used to identify discontinuities and to concurrently investigate the effect of deflation on the location of discontinuities. Discontinuities are shown to exist in earnings levels and changes distributions and emerge around zero in earnings levels distributions where number of shares is the deflator. Two important results emerge from this analysis. Firstly, when kernel density estimation is used in levels distributions, there is evidence that deflating by market value of equity and total assets shifts the location of suspected earnings management firms to the second and third intervals to the right of zero. Scaling does not alter the location of suspected earnings management firms in earnings changes distributions. Secondly, in the earnings deflated by number of shares distribution there is evidence that the band of suspected earnings management firms contains the results of firms that have upwardly and downwardly manipulated earnings. The implication of these findings are that deflating by number of shares is probably the most efficient scalar and that if doubt exists, alternative deflators should, at least, be compared between profit and loss firms. In addition, in the presence of evidence of downwards earnings management, researchers should evaluate whether and how to identify firms that are suspected of having reduced earnings. Specifically in emerging market research, these results indicate that it is inappropriate to merely replicate distribution research based on researcher selected binwidths and that kernel density estimation is probably more efficient in identifying discontinuities as it gives researchers a much broader perspective on the location of discontinuities.
Kernel density estimation is confirmed as a method to identify discontinuities in earnings levels and changes distributions by comparing total, discretionary and working capital accruals between suspected earnings management and non-earnings management firms. Evidence that discontinuities in earnings distributions may be attributable to earnings management activities is found where earnings levels and earnings changes are deflated by number of shares and market value of equity, both modified Jones and asymmetric BS discretionary accruals are significantly income increasing in suspected earnings management (EM) firms and income decreasing in non-EM firms. Scaling by total assets is not a suitable deflator in the South African context as it appears to affect the sign and statistical significance of the accruals metrics in the earnings levels before and after tax distributions. This result does not detract from the efficiency of kernel density estimation as it is attributable to the inefficiency of total accruals as a scalar in an emerging market environment. Furthermore, this research endorses Ball and Shivakumar’s (2006) (BS) finding that an asymmetric discretionary accruals model is more efficient in estimating discretionary accruals in all the distributions, irrespective of deflators. In addition, the results of this thesis show that, in an emerging economy, deferred tax is incrementally useful to modified- Jones and the asymmetric BS discretionary accruals in detecting earnings management. The implication of this result is useful to investors, auditors and regulators because deferred tax movements and its components are a visible and identifiable numbers in financial statements. Deferred tax expense can be used, instead of complicated discretionary accrual models, to identify evidence of earnings management. This means that the components of the deferred tax asset or liability accounts can be analysed to highlight unusual movements which may in turn, focus attention on unusual accruals. For researchers, this result has important implications. Kernel density estimation can be used to identify suspected earnings management firms which can be used to further research.
The final chapter of this thesis explores whether investors price suspected earnings management and nonearnings management firms differently and finds that, in this South African sample, there is no difference in price levels or cumulative abnormal returns in suspected earnings management and non-earnings management firms. This result is in sharp contrast to Balsam, Bartov, and Marquardt (2002) and Baber, Shuping, and Sok-Hyong (2006) who report a negative association between unexpected discretionary accruals and cumulative abnormal returns and Keung, Lin, and Shih (2010) who find that investors react negatively to zero or small earnings surprises. To some extent the results of this section of the thesis supports the finding in Gavious (2007) that prices react to discretionary accruals only after the introduction of revised analysts’ forecasts.The finding in this thesis implies that investors in South Africa are unable to detect earnings management. This outcome should be viewed in the context of prior research that reports that the JSE may be inefficient (Bhana, 1995, 2005, 2010; Hoffman, 2012; Ward and
Muller, 2012; Watson and Roussow, 2012) and may be attributed to the fact that there is no signal to investors that the quality of earnings may be questionable in the sample of suspected earnings management firms. All in all, the findings of this thesis indicate the existence of earnings management in listed companies in South Africa.
Description
Doctoral thesis submitted to the University of the Witwatersrand, Faculty of Commerce, Law and Management in fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of the Doctor in Philosophy, December 2016
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Citation
Rabin, Carol Elaine (2017) Earnings management in South Africa: evidence and implications, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, <https://hdl.handle.net/10539/24117>