Causality effect between electricity consumption and gross domestic product in SA and the effectiveness of the predictive techniques
Date
2017
Authors
Intamba, Sheila
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Abstract
The aim of this study was to investigate the relationship and direction between electricity
consumption and gross domestic product including energy infrastructure as a third
variable in South Africa using the time series data from 1993 to 2015. The relationship
was modelled in South Africa focusing on the industry sectors that influence economic
growth and using techniques such as ARIMA model, Multivariate Regression Analysis,
Vector Autoregressive and Granger Causal Test. The Vector Autoregressive model
performed better than Multivariate Regression analysis in modelling the relationship
between consumption and economic growth in South Africa. The Granger causal effect
illustrated a direction from consumption to economic growth and again Granger
cause effect from infrastructure to economic growth.
The results from these models revealed that there was a relationship between electricity
consumption and economic growth, as well as electricity infrastructure. South Africa
supports a growth hypothesis meaning that South Africa is energy dependent.
The results of the study signals that the electricity consumption of South Africa have
an effect on the economic growth.
Description
A research report submitted to the Faculty of Science, University of the
Witwatersrand, in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree
of Master of Science
May 23, 2017
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Citation
Intamba, Sheila (2017) Causality effect between electricity consumption and gross domestic product in SA and the effectiveness of the predictive techniques, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, <http://hdl.handle.net/10539/23504>